plays for 11/10-11/12.....

[AR182]

133-90-4....+33.50*...

played these 2 games early.....

2*fresno st.-7.....

history says that boise plus the points is the play here...they beat fresno at home last year 33-14 & held fsu to 17 yards on the ground....the year before at fresno, they won by 14...& the year before that they beat fresno by over 40 points....but i'm not convinced that boise is as good as previous years....especially on the road.....& i think fresno is better than in past years.....i'm also a big fan of fresno's coach,pat hill....he'll play anybody anywhere.....i also like fsu's balanced offense....so i'll take the team with triple revenge...& expect fresno to win by 20 points....

here is a system favoring this play that i read at another site from a respected capper.............

play against road dogs in conference games after winning 6+ games as favs : 21-5 ats (80.7%) in last 12 years.....play fresno

Play on 7+ favs in at least triple revenge if they lost last 3 head to head by 10+pts = 37-9 ats (80%) last 20 years...play fresno

This system is perfect since 2003....7-0 su & ats & 2-0 su/ats this season, with every team winning by at least 17.

some notable games from this system:

texas beating okla.this year 45-12

tex. tech beating neb. last year 70:10

2*ohio st.-14(120)....

during the last 2 weeks mich. & iowa pretty much kept n.w.'s offense in check & that was at n.w.....so anticipate osu, with a better defense than those 2, doing better at home.....osu's offense has been clicking on all cylinders & with revenge from losing last year at n.w.,i expect osu to be fully focused........at this point of the season i don't see much difference between tex.,usc, & ohio st......i see ohio st. winning this game by at least 20 points

here is an angle that supports this play....

play on any <.800 college team in their last home game of the season if they scored >24 points in their last game & are off b2b wins vs. an opponent off a su dog win....

since 1980...23-3-1 ats (89%)...

play on ohio st.& ul-lafayette.........

good luck.

 

[genosays]

Good luck AR182, lines have gone up significantly in both of your games so good thing you got them in early, I have Fresno teased down with a bunch of things so they'd better at least win for my sake .... can't remember if you are AZ or AZ State fan, any thoughts on UCLA/AZ St and AZ/Washington games??

 

[AR182]

geno,

thanks for the well wishes...it's greatly appreciated....

i'm not a fan of any college team....

i'm pretty sure that i will take az. st........

i'm not crazy about wash......but don't know if az. should be a double digit favorite over them.....am still looking at that game.....

good luck.

 

[AR182]

hit the fresno play....

friday i'm playing....

2*louisville-20.....

played this last sunday night....

had ul in their last game vs. pitt...thought that they were flat for most of the game & felt that they were lucky to cover.......rutgers has reached their pre-season goal of being bowl eligible, while ul is still trying to reach theirs.....either big east title or higher ranking in the polls...think that ul will be on their game vs. rutgers. in their last 4 home games ul is averaging 59 points per game & with both rutgers qb's hurting think that it's possible that ul reaches that average in this game & wins by at least 4 tds.

good luck.

 

[ajoytoy]

great info as usual AR...gl this week(end)

 

[noodle]

solid play on Fresno St... best of luck this weekend, AR182...........

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...... appreciate it...


here is something that i read that may interest some.....


since 1980, last home game favorites of -21 or less that enter off a straight up road win are a tremendous 103-57 ats for 64.3 %... provided this is NOT their last game of the season.

on saturday, there are five schools that fit this situation: louisiana lafayette, minn., oregon state,uab and w.michigan. if we bring our home team in off an ats win as well, this system zips to a sterling 82-36 ATS for 69.4 %. Out of those five teams, the only one that doesn?t qualify in this tightener is laf.

there is one more additional tightener that applies to two sides on saturday that demands more attention. It seems those ?play on? schools that haven?t experienced as much success during the course of the season do a little better when this system pops.

check this out!

if our last home game honey owns a won/loss percentage that is less than .625, this powerful technical situation explodes to a magnificent 35-6 ats for 85.3 % if you think about that tightener for a second, it makes perfect sense. if you haven?t been at your best during the course of the regular season, the most certainly you will want to close on a high note. That would mean a victory in your last home game! There are two teams that fit this special tightener this weekend:

oregon state and uab!

good luck.

 

[trolln4walii]

Good start to the week on the Bulldogs AR. That OSU line keeps climbing and I grabbed the Wildcats @+19-. Hate to buck that 89% trend but really like the way this Northwestern team is playing (although at home). We can still both be winners on this one

 

[AR182]

walii.

thanks.....i'm fine if osu wins by 17.....

in addition to the ohio st play....these are my other plays for sat.....all for 2*

purdue-22...

purdue finally got the monkey off their back with their first cover last week vs. mich.st.....ill.is the first losing team that purdue has faced since the 2nd week of the season....ill. hasn't come within 16 points of a big 10 win this year....under tiller, purdue is 24-11 ats in conference home games, including 11-1 ats when favored by 9 points or more(11-0 ats when favored by 9-24 points)....purdue takes out their frustrations & rout ill....

lsu-2(120)......

we all know about bama losing their very good wide receiver(prothro) for the year....but of equal importance is losing their very fine center on the offensive line...that will make it very hard for bama to move the ball against a very good lsu defense...

wyoming+5...

byu has scored 117 points in the last 2 games.....i think byu has a let down...

so. carolina+5(120)......

fla.'s qb does not fit into meyer's system....other than last week they haven't done too well on offense.....sc's defense has played pretty well lately & i think they can keep fla's offense under control with a possibilty of an out right upset......

lafayette-8....

last week fla. int'l. had their first lined road win in school histiory....so i anticipate fla. int'l.coming out flat for this game....i also had posted a few days ago an angle for laf.& ohio st.that hits about 89%

hawaii-16....

i had utah st. last week vs. lou.tech...very frustrating loss...hawaii is back home after 2 away losses.....they take out their frustrations on utah st...

idaho+11...

wasn;t impressed with lou tech last week in their road win vs. utah st....idaho coming off a bye has had extra time to prepare for this game & coming off a win before the bye, i expect idaho to be sky high....also read that teams coming off a win & a bye are good bets as home dogs...

utah-5...

i read that n. mex. starting qb is defintely not playing sat.....so i expect utah to stack the line to stop moore & let the back up qb win the game...

tulane+2

ark. st.-3

minn-4 (120)

good luck.

 

[Blackman]

Great call on Fresno -- giving Utah a look right now.

Best of luck this weekend.

 

[mw]

Thanks for the interesting angles. I agree on LSU and really like the Idaho play among others. Good luck.

 

[mw]

i had utah st. last week vs. lou.tech...very frustrating loss...

You aren't kidding. That one cost me a bundle....

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...appreciate it...

hit my louisville play.....

adding these all for 2*.....

wash.st.+5(120)........

oregon has a choice of starting one of 2 freshmen on the road in their first start....wash.st.has the #1 rusher in the country & haven't lost any pac-10 game by more than 4 points..

here is an angle, from a site that i use that supports this play........

play on - underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (wash. st.) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins.
46-10 ats over the last 5 seasons ....82.1%

iowa st.+3(120)....

have been playing better since hicks has returned to compliment meyer's passing...

w.f.+17.....

miami can be in a let down situation after their big win over v.t.....as great as miami's defense is, they can be run on....also under this coach, wake plays well in the dog role & their at home.....

u 48 conn./pitt...

played this sunday....

don't see this game cracking 40...

good luck.

 

[bbk]

Was wondering if you have a certain math model you use to calculate lines and totals
thanks

 

[AR182]

bbk,

i use a numerical system that i came up with & use that as a starting point....& go from there....

 

[gman2]

ar:

have told you many at various points in past seasons, but your work is genuinely appreciated. have a great weekend and gl

 

[Ratslla]

Good Day & Good Luck!

 

[AR182]

gman....

thanks for the props....appreciate it. i appreciate what you bring to the forum also...

ratslla......

good day & good luck to you too....

 

[BadAngel]

Good job AR. Good luck and keep rolling with the winners through the weekend.

 

[AR182]

ba....

thanks....i was just about to look to see who you are taking this week.....good luck...