THURSDAY PLAY

DerekNJND

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ATL +14

Heck I might even throw 50 on the ML too over at pinnacle I think its +1200. Bottom line, I have seen people all over the hawks in the last couple weks, expecting that first win at SOME point, but you gotta realize that while the 5 or 6 points they were getting in home games ARE TEMPTING, in reality they should have been 10 point dogs or so.

The bottom line is that the hawks are probably not going to be one of those pathetic teams that only win 8 games this season. The East is stronger this season than it has been in a while, but its not the west. Tonight's line reflects a couple things: huge west team over east team advantage, tuesdays blowout loss to SA, a winless team on the road, etc. you can pile it on all you want, so many reasons not to take them tonight. Heres the catch though. The spurs whoooped up on them. This years Dallas are NOT defending champions and any of you guys that loved the hawks at home against good teams last week only getting like 5 or 6 should LOVE the hawks tonight.
 

DerekNJND

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Gonna pile some info on here. Lets be clear, this is a SITUATIONAL PLAY. There are no team or player statistics that support an Atlanta cover here. My pick is more based on VEGAS being a little OFF on the Dallas side this year. Dallas is only 3-4 ATS. Another key that the books cant quite get it right is this: Theres been 4 games where Dallas has won SU as a dog, or lost SU as a favorite. 4 games, who cares right?? Wrong, they've only played 7, so 4 is more than half so far. HERES THE KICKER. In the remaining 3 games where they HAVE won as favorites, they only covered ONCE, by 3 points at Charlotte. Books cant quite get a grasp on this team.

ATL +14

200/180
 

DerekNJND

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Forgot to post record, i know you guys dont want to see picks, just show you the money right??

YTD 11-6 +1275
 

DerekNJND

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OK, I really hate to keep adding to this thread, but lemme pile on HUGE trend I forgot to list before:

In Dallas Mav games, the DOG is 6-1 ATS this season!
Like I said before, it just seems like the books cant figure out maverick games. GL if you play it, I may add on before game time
 

DerekNJND

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damn capped out a nice winner....too bad i threw 150 on dal at HT to buy most of it back. Main reason was I bet this game mostly on trends, something I dont usually do. Might have to give some more faith to the trends I uncover in the future
 
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