Can anyone give me reasons why I shouldn't bet my whole role on Penn St. this week only giving 7 points to an average at best Mich St. Team? I have seen some of you touting Mich St. as a good play so I dont know please need some help!
need help on Penn St this week!!!
- Thread starter blgstocks
- Start date
blgstocks said:
...yes, only one.
Reason #1.) If you are asking for help on a game and you're also thinking of putting down everything you got on same game, you need to pass.
p.s. It would be "roll" as in "bankroll."
Reason #2.) Colin Cowherd........He picked 8 games before the season even started. 7 went off, 7 were winners. Can you see where I'm going with this? His 8th and final game is Michigan State. Call it luck, call it BS, but the great words of the TUNA, "it is what it is."
Feel the exact same way blg. I don't have the cajones to put the entire bankroll on it but I will definitely be hitting this one hard. Penn State has looked like the class of the Big 10 this year. This game stands out as the top pick of the week for me. Good luck and I hope we hit this if you decide to take them.
One reason is that you should never bet your entire bankroll on one play. If you do, you are overbetting and/or are under funded. A bet of 100% of your bankroll would mean that the play has a 100% chance of winning. Do you really believe that if these two teams played 10 times in the same scenario that Penn State would win and cover all ten times? I don't think so. Not on the road, not with a talented offensive team that needs a win to become bowl-eligible. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it is not a good bet to lay the 7 but I am saying it is not wise to bet your entire bankroll.blgstocks said:
Road game and the BCS bid is on the line. Penn St hasn't been in this position for years. The ass might be puckering up a little bit. Good luck with whatever you decide. FYI, there are still many games to be played throughout the college football season as well as bowl games, I would hate to see someone risk this when the fun will begin soon enough during the holiday season.
jr11
jr11
blgstocks said:
AVERAGE AT BEST????????
CORRECT ME IF IM WRONG BUT DID MICH ST BEAT NOTRE DAME THIS YEAR?
THIS TEAM ISNT AVG. PENN STATE IS A BETTTER TEAM, BUT I THINK THE LINE IS ABOUT RIGHT.
GOOD LUCK
This game will be played with a "bowl game" atmosphere. MSU needs this win to be bowl eligible, and Stanton has really showcased some talent in the big games this season. Note his better games were against great opponents: Notre Dame, Michigan, OSU, ....PSU falls right into place. If he has a big game, theres no DENYING msu will keep it close, if not win!
Also, sometimes it just doesnt matter who the better team is on paper. MSU is a situational play here, and thats why the line is so lower than you may have expected. MSU has a bowl game on the line and seniors are playing their final home game. Penn State NEEDS this one for the Big Ten championship. If they lose, the winner of OSU/Michigan will win the big ten. Dont think that MSU doesnt know this. They would LOVE to play spoiler to a good PSU season, and if you follow NCAA football you know they have done exactly that before.
I had this line at 8 before it came out, I thought the books would try to lure some extra MSU money that way. The line opened at 7 instead. As we all know, big difference between 7 and 8. At 8 alot of PSU bettors might pass, but at 7 it looks REAL nice if you are backing penn state. So in my mind its a trap to get your PSU money. This all tells me the books dont NEED your MSU money which makes my play MSU +7 or NO play at all. PSU is a great team, but that MSU money line is really really tempting me. I will probably just take the FREE points. Trust me, when you are watching this game and its tied in the 4th quarter, you're gonna wish you had those FREE points on your side.
Also, sometimes it just doesnt matter who the better team is on paper. MSU is a situational play here, and thats why the line is so lower than you may have expected. MSU has a bowl game on the line and seniors are playing their final home game. Penn State NEEDS this one for the Big Ten championship. If they lose, the winner of OSU/Michigan will win the big ten. Dont think that MSU doesnt know this. They would LOVE to play spoiler to a good PSU season, and if you follow NCAA football you know they have done exactly that before.
I had this line at 8 before it came out, I thought the books would try to lure some extra MSU money that way. The line opened at 7 instead. As we all know, big difference between 7 and 8. At 8 alot of PSU bettors might pass, but at 7 it looks REAL nice if you are backing penn state. So in my mind its a trap to get your PSU money. This all tells me the books dont NEED your MSU money which makes my play MSU +7 or NO play at all. PSU is a great team, but that MSU money line is really really tempting me. I will probably just take the FREE points. Trust me, when you are watching this game and its tied in the 4th quarter, you're gonna wish you had those FREE points on your side.
Take Mich. St....here's why
Since 1991 Mich. St. is 13-0-1 against the spread in the final home game and the home team has covered 83% since they began playing Penn St. in the Big 10. Just My opinion.
Since 1991 Mich. St. is 13-0-1 against the spread in the final home game and the home team has covered 83% since they began playing Penn St. in the Big 10. Just My opinion.
Penn State is going to run all over this struggling MSU defense. Penn state is overall 10 X more athletic than this team...If they have an awful day which is very possible I still feel strongly this team wins. Since this is such a big rivalry game don't bet the farm on it.
Here's a reason:
Penn State played two road games ALL YEAR (cough cough, p***y schedule, cough) Of those two games they snaked away a win from a mediocre Northwestern squd and lost @ michigan.
Penn State played two road games ALL YEAR (cough cough, p***y schedule, cough) Of those two games they snaked away a win from a mediocre Northwestern squd and lost @ michigan.
I don't know about your whole bank roll but I love this game. MSU has given up on the rest of this year and PSU can lock the the Big Ten with a win. Take PSU -7, I know I am. They should soundly beat MSU.
blgstocks said:
PS, anytime you need help "reevaluating whether to bet your entire ROLL or not", your gambling career is in serious jeopardy. Man, if you even have to ask this question you shouldnt be betting more than ONE UNIT!
give you 4 reasons.....
MSU 5/1 ats home vs PSU
MSU 3/0 ats as home dog to PSU
MSU 6/1 su 7/0 ats as conf home dog +7 to +9.5
MSU 5/1 ats home vs PSU
MSU 3/0 ats as home dog to PSU
MSU 6/1 su 7/0 ats as conf home dog +7 to +9.5
Statman02 said:
Great stats and trends but come on the Lions aren't going to let Joe Pa down on this one
The only trend that matters is the W this weekend for STATE on saturday.if you are betting that MSU will win you are playing with fire. If at all take the +7 points. Unless your banking on Penn State playing the worst game of the year, this is a loss.
