plays for 11/19.....

[AR182]

147-94-4 +50.60*

i know that i'm due for a losing week....but here goes.....all for 2*...

army-7....

ark.st. is coming off a key win last week, vs. troy state, which has them alive for the sun belt championship. they have another key conference game next week at north texas....army is on a 3 game winning streak & should win comfortably against a disinterested team who is more concerned about winning in their conference.

virginia+8 (120).....

a few weeks agao everybody was talking about vt possibly playing in the national championship.....not anymore after miami beat them. in their last 23 home games,uva is 21-2 su & 18-5 ATS, including 9-0 ats as a home dog.....

here is an angle supporting this play....

since 1995...teams playing after a bye week that is playing on the road & are favored by 7 or more points are 54-92-2 ats(37%)....play against v.t...

arkansas -13.....

this game is being played in little rock, houston nutt's hometown & where ark. usually plays well.... with the insertion of dick as their qb a few weeks ago, ark.'s passing attack has done very well to go along with their very good runnung attack & imo they are nuch better than their record shows....miss. st. has lost their last 20 sec road games & in their last 8 road games have averaged 5 points per game...ark. is 22-3 ats in their last 25 sec games in which they allowed less than 17 points....

oregon-13(120).....

both teams will be playing back-up qbs....but oregon's qbs (they use 2) have played a few games, while osu's will be making his very first start on the road in one of the noisiest stadiums in the country....which imo will lead to turnovers...ou is also out for revenge from being soundly beaten by osu 50-21 last year..which kept ou out of a bowl game for the first time in 7 years...according to a newsletter that i read ou is 28-0 ats in su conference revenge wins....

baylor-2.....

ok st. is coming off a very big upset last week over texas tech in which they were dogs by over 3 tds.....teams in this situation usually come out flat the next week....

tulsa-13(120).....

i usually don't lay points on the road but don't think that tulane has the home field advantage in this game.....i read that this is the 10th different site in as many games for tulane...tulsa is 25-3-1 ats in their last 29 lined road win since 1980....

so. fla.-17(125).....

got this early in the week....this is so. fla's first home game since 9/24...so. fla. should control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball vs. an inexperienced cin.team.....they have one of the top runners in the country (hall) & rank 24th in total defense (after playing louisville,miami fla., & penn. st.) & needs to win their next few games to be bowl eligible...

e. car.+7 (120)....

marshall is 0-5 ats in their last 5 as favorites, while e. car. is 4-1 ats this season as road dogs....last week ec got blown out by tulsa in the 2nd half to fall to 3-6 on the year....here is something that i read....teams that fall to 3-6 on the year are 39-23 ats(62.9%) as road dogs the next week, including 16-5 ats if they are visiting a losing team..

good luck.

 

[Irish]

with you a few but head to head on vt/uva. Still best of luck to you. I like baylor and tulsa but it seems everyone does???? Hope that means it is a hammer to the book

Cheers
Irish

 

[taoist]

...with the insertion of dick....

Great stuff as always, Al!!! While I don't particularly like your first couple, I am on a few of those games toward the bottom of your list.... But you're going to have to try to keep the porn comments out of your analysis.... :scared :scared

This is a family forum in case you forgot....


:mj07: :mj07:


Best of luck this week....

:mj14:

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....

taoist....

i was waiting to see if somebody was paying attention (lol)....good job...

where's your picks ?

 

[taoist]

...been a busy week and have not put in the required time. didn't want someone to blindly follow me when i know i haven't adequately prepared. I might handicap a few today since it's kind of slow in the office today....

 

[AR182]

a few more for saturday....all for 2*...


duke+24....

last weeks loss in ot hurt nc's chances for a bowl game & with v.t. up next i think nc. will coast against duke, who they have constantly beaten....duke's freshman qb, asack threw for over 300 yds. in their last game vs. clemson, so i think duke can stick around under the large number.... here is an angle supporting this play.... teams with 1 or fewer wins are 29-18 ats as road underdogs of 7 points or more in their final game of the season, including 6-1 ats after a bye week and 13-2 ATS if visiting a team with a losing record ? both of which apply here.

clemson-2.....

i have taken so. car. a few times this year, with much success.....but in some of their games sc was severely out gained....for example in their last 2 wins vs. ark.& fla...sc was out gained 715-433 yards combined....last week clemson was very impressive vs. fla. st.& imo they will be the stronger team on sat......

auburn-6(120).....

like virginia tech,bama entered last weeks game vs. lsu undefeated with dreams of playing for a top tier bowl game..but like vt, those dreams came to an abrupt end with the ot loss....bama is missing their game breaking wr, prothro, & their starting center on the o-line & this has hurt bama's offense...since scoring 31 points vs. fla., bama has scored a total of 35 points on offense in their last 5 sec games, including 22 in their past 3 sec games....when playing at home, auburn has allowed only 27 points in their last 5 games....auburn is playing pretty good on offense & expect them to wear down a tired bama defense....

good luck.

 

[shamrock]

ar- wow I'm on several of these myself
Tulsa
Baylor
Clemson
Oregon
s Florida, really like this one
also got Navy, Iowa, BC and Michigan

good luck

 

[HoopsGuru]

ar182 congrats on an awesome season. anytime you have that many wagers and hit over 60% its amazing. good job! always look at your plays.

 

[trolln4walii]

GL this week AR. With you on Auburn and Baylor, but opposite on your Clemson and Virginia plays Guess I know where those two will end up with the impressive year you're having :sadwave: As always, BOL to you my friend

 

[lowell]

good luck. i am on them all but will hedge some and play va tech in teaser

 

[Ratslla]

Thanks and good luck today my friend!

 

[Blackman]

Capping Oregon right now -- best of luck AR

 

[loophole]

like duke to cover vs the heels.

lot of drama with ecu. after the tulsa debacle coach skip holtz was very vocal in his criricism of several players who quit in the second half after some bad breaks put the pirates down two scores. he vowed to make some changes this weekend in huntington. he may have been blowing off seam or he may have been serious. not sure which way the pirates will turn this afternoon, but i have a hunch you'll get a good effort from them. if not, the future looks dark in greenville.

gl today ar.

 

[BRUSHMAN]

GL AR!!!!!Like the card :mj14:

 

[AR182]

thanks for the well wishes, guys....appreciate it.


adding these for 2*....

ball st.+4
utah st.+10(120)
u 56(120) purdue/illinois
miami fla.-17


good luck.

 

[kcwolf]

Awesome year my friend! Very happy for you!

 

[BadAngel]

Good luck AR. Keep rolling.

 

[ajoytoy]

glad we agree on a few Al

continued success

 

[gardenweasel]

like the first tier of plays in particular.....

best of luck,bro...

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....appreciate it...


call me a sucker, but i'm taking......

tenn.-10 (120)......

this is a team that some were picking before the season to win the sec & they have too much talent to keep faltering. i noticed that on the road vandy gives up close to 5 yds. per rush.... that's alot.....i read that fullmer will stop yanking the qbs in & out of the games & will let clausen play with out looking over his shoulder.....i see tenn. winning by 3 tds.....but then again i sometimes see little green people.....

good luck.