TURKEY DAY

[DerekNJND]

ATL -3
200/182

Ok usually I'm the first one to say a line is fishy. At first glance, ATL -3 looks like your typical sucker bet. But based on the way the falcons have played lately, this line is right on the money. We're used to seeing the falcons giving 6 or 7 at home against decent and lousy teams so whats wrong with them giving 3 at Detroit? There is this common misconception that the falcons are better at home than on the road. I disagree. 3-1 on the road this season including great games against phenomonal home teams like Seattle and Buffalo. This is playoff run time. Good teams step it up, bad teams fall to the wayside. Atlanta is a good team, Detroit is a bad team. The rest is history. Not looking for a blowout here, but maybe 24-14, something that makes the game look closer than it was.

Look at ATL's remaining schedule also:
AT Car, Chi, and TB, and Car again at home
That will be a tough stretch, so falcons simply cant afford a loss to a team like detroit if they want to establish themselves as playoff contenders

 

[thom24ad]

I cant see the ATL dropping a thrid straight

 

[Killrus]

Atlanta played solid against the Bucs. I just dont see Detroit stopping Atlanta from scoring.

 

[RIGHT SIDE]

Totally agree with ATL here! Vick in the spotlight will shine, but I do see a high scoring affair. Won't be as easy as 1,2,3, but ATL should get the $$ in this game in the end...I'll be on them! DET will put up a fight on it's annual Turkey day home game, but the better team gets it done here. GL!

 

[DerekNJND]

get it quick, I see its up to 3.5 at some places now, or quickly accruing some juice at others. The way people have bet the HELL out of MNF and other nationally televised games, I wouldnt be surprised to see this one around 5 by gametime on Thursday.

Any thoughts on the second game?

My early lean is Dallas, but its hard to go against Denver the way they're playing. This over looks real nice at 41.5 too.

 

[thom24ad]

You gotta go with at least one home team on Turkey Day

 

[DerekNJND]

based on those turkey day trends IE2000 posted, Dallas is a good play at home, while Det is 2-2 ATS since 2001 as a home team on thanksgiving. I think Atlanta is good enough to "overcome" Detroits staggering .500 mark against the spread on Turkey day :thumb:

Dallas seems to be a nice mix of opportunity and trend history. 3-1 ATS on turkey day since 2001, plus they're on a nice run right now.

 

[block044]

detroit is 10-4 su the last 14 thanksgiving days...if that line keeps going up, better hammer it the other way...why does everybody think that atlanta is a good team???

 

[Dice34]

hmmm Packers-Minny......NO way bet against Favre on MOnday nite..Vikings on the road....NO C-pep....Everyone on Pack

ATL no way they lose 3 straight, Vick in the spotlight, Detroit sux and is in the North Div........everyone on the Falcons

I too lean was leaning to the Falcons, but everyone on here and everyone I talk too all I see and hear, FALCONS, FALCONS, FALCONS.....But the line hasn't budged at most places.......I'll wait to see if any line movements occurr before playing if a play at all.

 

[DerekNJND]

true I expected this line to be 4 or 5 by now, but instead only the juice is moving.

 

[DerekNJND]

hmmm Packers-Minny......NO way bet against Favre on MOnday nite..Vikings on the road....NO C-pep....Everyone on Pack

ATL no way they lose 3 straight, Vick in the spotlight, Detroit sux and is in the North Div........everyone on the Falcons

I too lean was leaning to the Falcons, but everyone on here and everyone I talk too all I see and hear, FALCONS, FALCONS, FALCONS.....But the line hasn't budged at most places.......I'll wait to see if any line movements occurr before playing if a play at all.

I've given up trying to figure out juice moves vs. line moves. Two good examples, VT vs. Miami -6.5 everyone pounded VT, line didnt budge, they got killed. Today, everyone on ATL, juice goes to -120, ATL ROLLS OVER DETROIT. Tough to say it matters after looking at those two cases.

Either way, nice win earlier and a pretty easy win with this dallas OVER too.

 

[DerekNJND]

detroit is 10-4 su the last 14 thanksgiving days...if that line keeps going up, better hammer it the other way...why does everybody think that atlanta is a good team???

They arent a super bowl contender, but they are a playoff team. Playoff teams BEAT lousy teams this time of the season. Detroit is a bad team. Make the connection

 

[Dice34]

I've given up trying to figure out juice moves vs. line moves. Two good examples, VT vs. Miami -6.5 everyone pounded VT, line didnt budge, they got killed. Today, everyone on ATL, juice goes to -120, ATL ROLLS OVER DETROIT. Tough to say it matters after looking at those two cases.

Either way, nice win earlier and a pretty easy win with this dallas OVER too.

Tell me about....it looked fishy to me and got me to go the other way on a small play on the *cough* lions.....oh well......but I feel for the lions fans and the people that went to that game....hideous.....just hideous

 

[moe777]

:mj14: :mj14: after taking the texans sun night ive learned my lesson about taking bad teams vs good ones.wasnt going to make the same mistake twice in 1 week.