MD @ NC State (Noon Game on ESPN)

[CherryPicker]

Stopped capping and starting tailing some guys from another site these past two weeks and I have paid the price. Decided to do it the old fashioned way and spend some time myself looking at the games tomorrow. First up:

Maryland (5-5) at North Carolina State (5-5) 12:00pm Noon on ESPN

NC State 1-4 ATS at Home TY
MD 4-1 ATS on Road TY

Away team 4-0-1 this series L10 as a DOG
Away team 7-2-1 this series L10 OVERALL

NC State only cover at home TY was over MDTENN by 1.5 points.

MD 3-0 ATS as a road dog TY, 2-1 SU with their lone loss in this situation against FSU.

I have not been betting on NCAAF nearly as long as NFL but if memory serves me correctly these teams are usually bad favorites and good dogs.

Looking at the series history for the first time tonight this seems to be even more pronounced, with the road team taking 7 of 10 in the series, winning 4 out of this 7 times as a dog.

Need to go on a little run tomorrow, hoping to start with:

MD +3 $1100/1000

Good luck guys, this site has helped me this year, although I have not used it as much as I should have. I hope this hits so I can give back a little.

 

[jdp1152]

seems like a smart play. I definitely think the wrong team is favored in this one. NC State has been awful at home this season. If NC State can't establish the run, look for QB Marcus Stone to turn the ball over, as has been the case with every NC State QB since Philip Rivers departure Very nervous feet and poor decision maker. If this isn't enough, the coaching edge surely goes to Maryland......Freidgen has taken Amato behind the woodshed since his arrival....last year was Amato's only win against his larger counter part. Just can't seem to figure out why NC State isn't a slight dog in this one.

 

[CherryPicker]

thx jpd, I hope it works out. Going with this Sunshine State two team 6.5 point teaser for $500.00:

USF -.5
FSU +10.5

Backwards and forwards on this one I guess, LOL.

Reasoning is USF starting to put a good program together, just got verbal commitment from a highly touted recruit and looking for a chance to win the Big East. All this talk about it being cold is the same thing I heard about them never playing in a dome, and look what happened. Pretty confident they will cover the touch, but I hate getting moosed, also not that sure FSU can win up in Gainsville but this heated rivalry should be enough to cover the 10.5 with the tease. That's all I have for now, will try to dig out my thread tomorrow and play some late games if I can stay ahead past the mid-afternooners.

GL to all and any comments are welcome, I appreciate any input, good or bad.

 

[TouchdownJesus]

I've hit the last 8 NC State games. I got lucky last week just barely getting the cover against MTSU.
I thought Md might be slight favor here, or at least very close to a pick either way.
In this game, all I wanted was 3 points either way, preferably Maryland.
I'm going to buy 1/2 point and take Md +3 1/2

Friedgen has Amato's number. 4-1 I think. Both teams need this game for a bowl. I see it close and will gladly take anyone against State with 3 points.
Only real advantage I see for State is that they are at home. There offense was terrible against MTSU. 24 points, including a def. score and a blocked punt that led to a 10-yard drive.

Md +3 1/2 BIG

 

[CherryPicker]

I never really play teasers but for some reason I am liking this one too:

ND -8.5
Fresno St -8.5

Both should cover the normal lines, but I hate laying DD's on the road, see today for an example. Will play this one on the tease for a nickel as well, and both -15 normal lines for a quarter a peice.

Leaning toward UGA on the ML for a big late night play, might be too expensive by the time I make up my mind though. Shockley should be able to make GT pay for their multiple blitzes, and Pope could also have a breakout game, but the Yellow Jackets win a lot of games they shouldn't. The hatred that these teams have for each other runs deep though, and will probably play the favorite on the spread as there will be no letting up if UGA gets ahead early.

 

[CherryPicker]

Thx for chiming in TDJesus, I think MD wins outright myself, but don't want to get greedy with the ML only to lose with a missed XP or something stupid. I would normally buy off the 3 myself but I am down a considerable amount this week and don't want to spend the extra $200 for the hook, hope it doesn't bite me in the arse cause I hate pushes.

 

[jdp1152]

I have been waiting on pulling the trigger on USF for three days now.....I see the line going down which I like. What I dont like is Florida boys playing in the cold Northeast. If this game is played anywhere south of Jersey, I would be on USF like white on rice. Will probably still make a play on USF, just probably wont be for as large as I originally thought.

 

[TouchdownJesus]

I'd like to take Maryland ML as well, but don't want to get greedy either.
Basically either team can win and good chance it will be close. Friedgen is way better coach than Amato and owns him.

I was at game 2 years ago in Raleigh. Md. down 7, scores TD, then misses extra point. All State has to do is run out the clock. TA McLendon fumbles and Md kicks FG to win. It was awesome.

I'm taking hook b/c I don't want to push on game I feel this good about. No guarantees, but I think Md is right side.

Also, QB situation at State is horrible. Stone is starting now and not good at all. He made one play against BC, 96 yd TD. Did nothing against MTSU.
Look for Md. to play field position game and not play into State's strengths, which is an athletic defense.
I think Md. wins a close one.

I might have just talked myself into small ML play. LOL.

 

[ozzy]

Mac, if you feel so good about it, why are you buying the hook?? I think Maryland wins this easy, because Stone is afraid to throw a pass to anyone unless they are open by 5 yards. Fat guy should be smart enough to figure that out, and Amato has yet to show me he can make any kind of adjustment. The only worry is Maryland's qb has shown he can turn it over. Maryland and the under seems like a nice parlay.
By the way, I was also at that game 2 years ago, and it was the exact opposite of awesome.

 

[DerekNJND]

seems like a smart play. I definitely think the wrong team is favored in this one.

my friend, you will learn that whenever the "wrong" team is favored, the "wrong" team seems to win in NCAA. NC ST or no play at all

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Ozzy, I'm buying the hook, b/c I can easily see a 3-point win either way. I feel really good that the game will be close and/or won by Maryland.
I don't think the wrong team is favored as much as I think it should be a lot closer to a pick or maybe 1 either way.
If it was State +3, I'd either take State or no-play. No way I'd take Md -3 in this one.

 

[TouchdownJesus]

After that game 2 years ago, I was close to one end zone, in the grass. The band was in that end zone slightly to my left. Right after the game a Maryland player did a little dance at mid-field and then sort of high stepped all the way down to that end zone and danced for literally 5 minutes or more while people threw stuff at him.
Man, that was awesome.

Ozzy, your Wolfpack goes down today.

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Maryland played right into their hands. Stupid penalties too. Hollenback sucks and their O-Line is terrible. All they had to do was play field position and smart boring football today and they would have not only covered but won.
Defensive score was HUGE.
State scored FG off fumble of punt. Another FG off fumble. And TD off INT Ret. NCSU had one TD on offense.
Biggest play was 3rd and 17 picked up followed by 30 yards of penalty on the next play.
Fat Freidgen can suck it.

 

[jdp1152]

I went to NC State and i can say I am happy with the win, but rather surprised. That being said, it brings me great joy to beat the Turds. I like Friedgen however. I dont bet State home games, however I certainly wouldn't have taken NC State if I did. A VERY unpredictable team.

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Yeah, I like Friedgen too. Just pissed off with the way they played. Played right into State's strengths.
The missed FG's by Maryland early didn't help either.