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Handicapping Forum > Inside the NFL Lines @ The Stardust




yanno
Senior Member

Registered: Mar 2001
Location:
Posts: 208
Inside the NFL Lines @ The Stardust
This is just some notes from the weekly Fan590 radio program Inside the Lines. First a few notes from Dave Malinsky's segment. There are a couple ideas about "line value".

As he says, there is nothing better for a capper than having your game falling outside where it should have been by the posted lines (meaning that you spotted line value).

THIS WEEK's line value:

Tennessee is a good "play on" this week + maybe for the rest of the year. Everyone on their wide receiver core is healthy now, other injuries are back, they will be playing hard in all games the rest of the year. AND they opened relatively cheap vs San Fran!

Going with the KC line move. Bill Belichik was gone for several days this week, which really cuts into preparation time. Pats have been a bounce away from losing every game since the opener, and they are simply OVERMATCHED today. And we might add that they have passed the threshold where teams can deal with injuries.

BOB SCUCCI Info:

As we all should know by now, the favs have been winning this year, the public (often with the sharps on board) have been hitting the House hard. I may post something later about the exact numbers, or someone else can.

Out in Vegas, Bob says the local papers have been calling him and he's been telling them how much the Book is losing, and has been getting tons of mail telling him to **stop whining** etc. He has been surprised and says he should just say they broke even and then everyone would be happy.

That being said, the Book did break even last week. They didn't "knock down" enough games to have a good day, with the Chargers, Broncs and Colts coming thru as favs. BUT the 49ers did knock down a lot of Teasers. Sunday nite hurt the Book, but Monday nite was a huge win with the Vikings upsetting the Pack.

The numbers are flying today. NO started at -1? and the Jets are now -2? favs. He doesn't know why. The House has needed the Jets every week and he was tired of backing (being forced to back) this team. Now the bettors are on them for a change.

Tennessee has seen a lot of money. It has gone to -9 from -7?.

Cinci has seen money also, and the House needs the Ravens big time today.

KC is coming back to the opening line. Early money was on the Patriots but now the $$$ are pouring in on KC. (At least that's what I thought he said, and the line is now up to -4 at places. Not sure what the opening line was.)

Anyways, just a heads up that in a lot of games this year, the public and the sharp money has been on the same side, and the House has been left holding the bag. They can't just move the lines too much to compensate, because then they stand to get "picked apart" by smart guys.

That's it for now. Personally, I'm playing KC -3 (-125), San Diego -3? (-115) and am teasing Tennessee -1? + Cinci -2?. I've already got Tennessee on the back end of some teasers and parlays from the week, and am thinking about putting them on the front end of some other games, including Indy on MNF.

GLTA and as always, remember to enjoy this sporting life!

P.S. He was asked if there was any action on the Grey Cup. The answer: (laughs) "Unfortunately no." I had heard that the line opened Edmonton -1 and hasn't moved. Well, as they said, $20 doesn't move a line. That being said, I'm on the Alouettes +1? today for reasons of better coaching (any Eskimo fans know what I mean) and also that they are finally "hungry" again and getting to this game was crucial to the survival of the franchise. AND I just liked the way they have been loose and preparing for the game. Betting small, tho. Hey, it's the CFL where anything can happen!


Last edited by yanno on 11-27-2005 at 08:46 PM

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11-27-2005 05:30 PM



bigson
Senior Member

Registered: Mar 2004
Location: Stoney Creek, Ontario
Posts: 203

nice stuff!


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- LOSH



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11-27-2005 08:35 PM



yanno
Senior Member

Registered: Mar 2001
Location:
Posts: 208
A Couple of Articles on NFL Betting Trends
OK...I lifted these from another site, where someone posted them. It's just info...to help gain insight...if it helps someone, that's good, if not, ignore. It may want to make you think twice about betting with the House, if the House is losing. And don't even talk about "how all those mega casinos in Vegas were built", they were built on slots, not sportsbooks. That's a simplification, since you have different "profit centers" in a casino, but it's basically true.


Bettors flying high!


Players riding favorites to pay window


11/22/2005 - by Mark Mayer

Bettors playing and collecting on NFL favorites this season have become the "T.O." to Las Vegas sports books ? a Terrell Owens-type story that just won?t go away.

"It is what it is," said John Avello, director of race and sports operations at Wynn Las Vegas. "I?m not bothered by talking about it. More than anything else, I believe this is simply favorites winning because they are flat out the better team."

Art Manteris, vice president of race and sports operations at Station Casinos, said that under normal conditions favorites beating the underdogs would be an aberration. Now, he?s not so sure.

"I don?t really have a theory," Manteris said. "I?ve seen short term flings before, but this is becoming a concern. I don?t usually hit the panic button so fast, but I have to admit that the Eagles loss to the Cowboys (blowing a 20-7 lead in the final five minutes) bothered me more than any game since the (Buffalo-Tennessee) Music City Miracle. We took a double hit with both line and total."

Jay Kornegay, race and sports director at the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook, took a lighter side CONT'D NEXT POST

 

[Dead Money]

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approach to the weekly frustration.

"I?m looking forward to another losing weekend," quipped Kornegay, who noted that the books have been on the short end in the NFL for the last 2? years. "I think it?s simply a case of no longer dealing with an overwhelming number of novice bettors. The public has taken advantage of information available through the Internet and the media. Knowledge through osmosis, if you will."

Like the Owens saga, the more that "squares" or the general public keeps winning behind favorites, the more this story grows. Consequently, the losing pattern for the house becomes a major concern.

"The days of bettors going to the window and playing say the Cleveland Browns because they like them are gone," Kornegay said. "People know about the injuries and their impact right down to the offensive line. Two weeks ago, when favorites went 12-2 ATS, the one game we needed to win was the Jets covering +6 at San Diego. If we don?t get that game, it would have been a big disaster. Still, this is the worst I?ve seen in my 18 years."

Manteris agreed that it has been the regular customer and not the "wiseguys" or professional gamblers who have taken advantage of the run on favorites, covering the line and delivering weekly beatings to the house.

"We as professionals in the industry have come to respect the public as sophisticated bettors," he said. "In general, the public still likes playing favorites. However, now if they think the number is too short, they will pounce on it."

Avello said that Vegas books need to step back and assess the situation on a week-to-week basis to determine if an adjustment in thinking needs to occur.

"If teams are getting better or worse, the pointspread is the first adjustment that can be made," Avello said. "However, books don?t like to over-adjust. You are starting to see a change. This past week, for example, Denver was a 13-point favorite at home against the Jets. Earlier in the year, it would have been 5 or 6."

The losses for the house on the NFL this season are in the millions, but the bookies concur that the situation should only be viewed on a week-to-week basis.

"No matter how bad things get, we can reimburse the customer," Kornegay said. "At the Hilton, the staff makes an evaluation every week to make sure we are in the best possible condition to win. Our number one job is to provide a service and give our players the opportunity to use their own opinions to beat the house. Sports books live off parity, and right now the cupboard is dry."

Manteris said that the house losses in football are strictly with the NFL, not with the colleges.

"Both last year and this year have been strong for the books," he said. "But as you know, if you don?t have a good NFL year, you won?t have a great year in sports."

Avello amplified on the "overkill" of the favorites versus dogs breakdown.

"It really is the T.O. to the books," he said. "I don?t expect the story will go away this week. What I see is a different story to talk about each week. That means more business for the industry, and that?s a good thing."

==================


Bettors flying high!


Touts are on losing end of current run

11/22/2005 - by Ron Fortune

While Nevada bookmakers are taking it on the chin from football bettors, touts and handicappers are finding the process of picking winners an elusive if not perplexing one.

For instance, last week Doc released his legendary Big 10 Game of the Year (Wisconsin over Iowa) and Wayne Allen Root touted an outlandish (even for him) "Game of the Decade" in Wyoming versus BYU ? both losers.

Moreover, the Stardust Invitational contestants ? arguably the industry?s top sports handicappers ? have been lackluster at best with their picks.

Through the first 11 weeks of head-to-head competition, the Stardust handicappers ? who each pick seven games against the spread ? are a dismal 73-75-6. The losing mark is the worst for this late in the season in the storied history of the tournament.

So, if favorites in the NFL are winning nearly 60 percent of the time, what?s the problem here?

"That?s part of your answer ? the favorites are winning," said David Stratton, managing editor of GamingToday and 2003 winner of the Stardust Invitational. "Most public handicappers readily admit that they favor underdogs, and this season the dogs collectively have been the wrong side."

Stratton, who won the Stardust contest by picking 60 percent winners (21-14), said handicappers shade their selections toward underdogs for three primary reasons: dogs historically (especially at home) have a slightly higher win percentage than favorites; underdogs are more lucrative bets on the money line; and picking underdogs is often perceived as having "insider" information.

"How much insight is there in picking a team that?s a 24-point favorite," Stratton said. "But if you can tab a 12-point underdog that wins outright, you?re a genius."

Another factor that has hampered sports touts is reliance on the "value" of the betting line. Too many prognosticators spend too much time handicapping the numbers, rather than the teams that are meeting on the field, according to one high-stakes bettor who asked that his name be withheld.

"You listen to these guys talk about the various win percentages based on the various numbers, they talk about the various ?subsets? within the bet and so forth," the bettor said. "But they all seem to ignore the obvious albeit simple question ? which team is going to win the game?"

Indeed, the question seems simple enough but is in fact very powerful in determining pointspread winners.


You listen to these guys talk about the various win percentages based on the various numbers, they talk about the various ?subsets? within the bet and so forth," the bettor said. "But they all seem to ignore the obvious albeit simple question ? which team is going to win the game?"

Indeed, the question seems simple enough but is in fact very powerful in determining pointspread winners.

"For years there has been an axiom that in the NFL, the points come into play only about 10- to 15 percent of the time," said Richard Saber, a GT sports consultant and former sportsbook manager of several Strip casinos. "And it?s true today ? if you can pick the winner of the game, you will have beaten the spread 80 percent to 90 percent of the time."
Another reason that handicappers use elaborate, actuary-like mathematical calculations to support their selections is the notion of "sharp" analysis versus "square" thinking.

Although it may sound like a music teacher?s admonition, "sharps and squares" has to do with knowledgeable bettors versus the ignorant public bettors.

"Unfortunately, the ignorant, square public right now is eating the sharpies? lunch," said the high-stakes sports bettor. "Sometimes, you can become too sophisticated and outsmart yourself."

Nevertheless, most sports handicappers believe ? and are betting on ? underdogs returning to form.

Steve Fezzik, a high profile bettor and handicapper for Las Vegas Advisor Sports, in Week 10 of the NFL picked 11 underdogs from the 14 games on the card.

"I am aggressively looking to back dogs, as I am virtually certain you could just bet every dog the rest of the year vs. the inflated lines and likely win money," Fezzik said in releasing the selections.

Unfortunately, only three of the underdogs covered while eight went down to defeat.

Despite the weekend?s 3-8 mark, Fezzik was undeterred. "I know this may well seem like an overly simplistic analysis, but I assure all this is a very powerful method that has worked year after year after year," Fezzik said. "I predict the NFL favorite players get annihilated the rest of the year."

 

[GM]

Good read for sure. Thanks for posting this.

 

[grandpa]

A quality read for certain..

Thanks for the post

 

[pt1gard]

thanx,DM, love stuff like that