Pitt/Indy

[thom24ad]

Had a great day yesterday at 8-2...And I'm thinking about putting my winnings on Pitt +8 tonight...I never thought this line would open at a TD...I was rather surprised...so I thought Pitt is healthy for tonight's game and they should play Indy pretty close and that +8 is a gift...Then I start thinking about the dreaded trap...Could this line be begging for Pitt money, which I think they might get...and then Colts end up winning by double digits...This line has got me pretty confused on my play but as of right now I'm going to try and not over think this one and go with my initial thought of Pitt +8...If I had any sense at all I would lay off this game tonight but we all know thats not going to happen...Does anyone have any comments on the line or tonight's game?
GL to all!
:toast:

 

[bert07]

before I saw the line I was thinking it would open around 7
and I was going to be all over INDY

hopefully it will go down

I see P Manning ripping that Secondary apart

 

[edludes]

I think Pitt is the play too.By the way it did open at 7 and was moved up to 8 then 9,now coming back down.Don't put all your yesterdays winnings on any one game,bet the same amount on them all if you want it to last.See baby johnsons post about "bad luck".It evetually happens to us all.GL

 

[DerekNJND]

Leaning to PITT +8

Look for Cowher to do what NE did so well in the playoffs the last few years against INDY. Ball control, running game, strong physical defense, but most important: keep the ball out of Manning's hands. Frustrate him by holding onto the ball. When he finally does get the ball he will try to force things, and try to do too much at once, and allow your secondary to make plays.

Do the Steelers have the necessary elements to implement this strategy? Yeah. They have a great secondary and a physical linebacker/DL core. They have a power running game, and an efficient QB in Rothelsberger, returning tonight. This is a FG game guys, cmon this line is WAY inflated. I would have trouble taking the Colts if this line was 5 or 6, let alone 8. Cowher isnt going to sit back and watch his team get blown out on MNF. They will rise to the challenge, and "maybe" give it a good enough shot to win.

COLTS 27- STEELERS 23

 

[thom24ad]

This is a FG game guys, cmon this line is WAY inflated. I would have trouble taking the Colts if this line was 5 or 6, let alone 8. Cowher isnt going to sit back and watch his team get blown out on MNF. They will rise to the challenge, and "maybe" give it a good enough shot to win.

COLTS 27- STEELERS 23

I've been thinking the same thing about this game, a 4 point difference...I am almost sure they are but can't find anything on it just to double check it, is Steelers backfield healthy?...I think the Steelers running the ball is the key for the Pitt cover

 

[bert07]

"I think the Steelers running the ball is the key for the Pitt cover"
agreed

 

[thom24ad]

I am not sold on the Colts defense either

 

[DerekNJND]

Then I start thinking about the dreaded trap...Could this line be begging for Pitt money, which I think they might get...and then Colts end up winning by double digits...This line has got me pretty confused on my play but as of right now I'm going to try and not over think this one and go with my initial thought of Pitt +8...

Dont overthink this line too much. The +8 is the result of the balancing act the books try to pull off every week. Remember, INDY has been a winner every week except 1, I"m not 100% sure on that, but only 2 weeks at the most INDY hasnt covered. What does that mean? Books need equal money on both sides, and really DONT care who wins the game, as long as wagers on Team A equals wagers on Team B. Anything under a touchdown wouldnt have accomplished this.

Theres two ways to look at the line. You can say its begging for Pittsburgh money, in a game where they dont have a chance. Just because a line is set to attract money to one side doesnt make it a loser. Books just need to balance out. The more important thing to remember is that the point spread starts at a number which accurately reflects a "prediction" for tonight. Then its adjusted by several factors. If the line was begging for Pittsburgh money, I think it would be higher. The truth is when you have a team that is undefeated winning by an average of OVER DOUBLE DIGITS week in and week out, 8 is for all intents and purposes, a LOW number. GL

 

[3 Seconds]

Leaning to PITT +8

Look for Cowher to do what NE did so well in the playoffs the last few years against INDY. Ball control, running game, strong physical defense, but most important: keep the ball out of Manning's hands. Frustrate him by holding onto the ball. When he finally does get the ball he will try to force things, and try to do too much at once, and allow your secondary to make plays.

Do the Steelers have the necessary elements to implement this strategy? Yeah. They have a great secondary and a physical linebacker/DL core. They have a power running game, and an efficient QB in Rothelsberger, returning tonight. This is a FG game guys, cmon this line is WAY inflated. I would have trouble taking the Colts if this line was 5 or 6, let alone 8. Cowher isnt going to sit back and watch his team get blown out on MNF. They will rise to the challenge, and "maybe" give it a good enough shot to win.

COLTS 27- STEELERS 23

I agree with almost everything you said, except the highlighted statement.

I see this one 27-20 Indy.

 

[thom24ad]

Thanks for the insight Derek...man I should lay off this game tonight but I have tomorrow off work and 12 pack of Heineken on ice as we speak...I been doing good this year and built up a good size bankroll...hopefully to get me through the rest of the season...so I can afford to take my winnings from Sunday and roll them over on tonight's game...If I lose I'm only down juice for the weekend no big deal and if I win X-mas comes early I am going to BestBuy to buy that flat screen LCD I have my eye on...Either way I am in for a night of hopefully some good football and beers...man I can't wait...Pondering a possible teaser with Pitt +15 and Under 54...I let you guys know what I play

 

[agentjmw]

Please dont take this as critical Thom, far from it.
Why play the 6/4 teases? While to me I see value in 3 team 10 pointers,(I usually back up 3 team pars with them) I dont see 4 points on the total as enough incentive. Maybe if it was a 6/6. And again Im not being critical of your bet or your post. Just looking for others opinions....

 

[Statman02]

the 8 point spread is exactly where it should be...my system has the Colts by 8......all the trends that I use are on Pitt in this game......126/0 trends on Pitt......over under trends are 1/121 for the under.....Pittsburgh is the no 3 selection in the Hilton contest with a majority of the leaders on Pitt......this is usually an automatic fade for me but this week the top picks are 3/0 with KC....SD....and Jax with the contest leaders also on those plays.....wish I would have taken it when I saw 9 but thought it might go to 10........gotta take the trends in this......Pitt +8 with a 9 point teaser on the under

Pitt:
7/1 dog off loss
8/1/1 away off away
8/0 dog off away
9/2 off su and ats away loss
15/4 conf away dog
7/0 conf dog off loss

 

[thom24ad]

thanks a lot stat...Great info...I don't break down the numbers like you...I just go off what I think about each team and the match up when I first look at a line when it comes out...Its not the best method and a little random but its what has been working for me this season

 

[thom24ad]

Just cracked my first beer...Going with my initial thought and rolled yesterday's winnings on Pitt +8....come on LCD, PaPa needs a new TV

 

[thom24ad]

What a ****ing start...goodbye LCD

 

[halfbuck34]

these freakin' refs are giving you every chance for that LCD. :mj16: As you can see, I'm on Indy.
GL anyway

 

[thom24ad]

Steelers are hanging on by a thread...the offense has done shit...and the play calling for the steelers is terrible

 

[thom24ad]

My LCD :sadwave: