A thousand thanks and my usual crap

[lostinamerica]

NCAA YTD: 43-38 (+0.77*)
NFL YTD: 25-24 (-0.98*)


A thousand thanks. Ten times a thousand thanks is more like it. That much thanks is due the family of Madjack's posters that religiously or just occasionally share of their time and substance, offering plays and insights, hanging around with passion and addiction, in every forum on every day of the year. Yep. It's all good. Now, how I weigh and make use of what's put out there in managing my bankroll and my sanity is another matter entirely . . . Since the NCAA football and basketball forums seem to dish up the most of everything on a consistent basis, the timing seemed right for a first of December toast to some terrific times here at the ranch. Madjacks Rules! That For Should! A thousand thanks. Now back to my usual crap . . .


Three plays so far:

West Virginia(-9) over South Florida (1*)

Army(+6) over Navy (1*)

Northern Illinois(-12') over Akron (1*)

Will add some write ups PDQ.

After that, I probably won't be able to confine myself to leans only. As always, I'll try to let my research tip the scales.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Northern Illinois(-12') over Akron (1*)
- - I think I'm close to right on what a surging Northern Illinois team on a mission is capable of bringing to their showcase moment, not so clear on what Akron counters with to match them. NIU's superior OL has reason to be playing with a chip on their shoulder that should set the tone, the seeds of tonight's game have had a long time to establish some deep roots up and down the Husky sideline, and the MAC is a conference where superior teams with super solid motivation frequently dominate over a stretch that leaves no window for overcoming, which is a common characteristic of how championship tilts play themselves out in general. Something north of 55% likelihood in my eyes that NIU is the better team and primed to prove it or it wouldn't be a play.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Did an NCAA review for my own amusement, and came up with these:


Best Plays:

(1) Colorado(-3) over Texas A&M (2.50*)
- - "Released" on Monday. My strongest play of the year, college or pro.

(2) Fresno(-7)(-120) over Boise (1.50*)

(3) Iowa State(+10') over Texas A&M (1*)
- - Also two mistakes because I didn't go with my ML analysis, and I didn't play it harder.

(4) Kentucky(+22) over Louisville (1*)
(5) UCLA(-7') over San Diego St. (1*)
- - Watched and waited about 365 days on the first, about 270 days on the second, and never seriously waivered. Florida was the third one I watched through a long off season, and I not only waivered, but tossed a winning $5 wager on Wyoming(+22') as the opponent.

(6) Penn State (-11') over Wisconsin
- - The line kept climbing, and I kept saying, "I'd play it," and not just, "Penn State or nothing."

(7) Fresno(+23') over USC (1.25*)

(8) UCLA (-3) over Arizona State (1*)
- - Should not have been close.

(9) Northwestern(+13) over Michigan State (1*)
- - I wondered what I was missing.

(10) Vanderbilt(+19) over Florida (1*)
- - With QB Cutler, it's disconcerting that his nature appears to be having his dawber down in the huddle and on the sidelines, but his charisma in the pocket and NFL arm are a wonderous combination.

(11) Minnesota(-13') over Colorado State
- - A very good and correctly analyzed play.

(12) Baylor(+23) over Texas A&M
- - There's those Aggies again.


Worst Plays:

(1) Colorado(-14) over Nebraska (1*)
- - Just before travelling for Thanksgiving, I saw Nebraska(+17) and I knew that wasn't right, and I put 25% on Nebraska, but I knew I should have gone for a full hedge and posted it that way. Twice ugly.

(2) Iowa(-9') over Iowa State (1*)
- - It was a September mismatch.

(3) Colorado State(+7) over TCU (1*)
- - Wrong side there.

(4) Vanderbilt(-10') over Kentucky (1*)
- - My reasearch didn't support the play at all, and I fell for it anyway.

(5) Louisville(-20) over South Florida (1*)
- - It just kept getting uglier on the scoreboard I was watching.

(6) Michigan State(-4') over Michigan
- - Deserves an honorable mention.


Regrets for playing small or passing on entirely:

(1) Fresno(-12') over Toledo
- - A Tuesday game that was not on my radar. I know I would have been on it by Thursday.

(2) Texas(-14) over Oklahoma
- - The chatter at Madjacks did not help my trigger finger on that one.

(4) Georgia(-7') over Boise
- - I liked this play, but I decided I had a card I liked, and I wasn't going to get crazy. The probable lesson was that others similarly have opening acts they are keyed on, and the "smart money" at MJs out of the chute is surely a profitable road over the long term.

(5) Notre Dame(+13) over USC
:cursin: and :cursin: :cursin: over events of that day and game that I was hyped for for almost two weeks.

(6) Notre Dame(+3) over Pittsburgh
- - Jumped off the page to little avail.


There are surely a few innacuracies in that efficient compilation, as well as omissions. Not twice as many winners as losers, but twice as many strong plays as shitty plays sounds about right. My usual crap.


GL

**************************************

All the leaves are green
All my friends are gone
I'm livin' in my hometown
I can barely get along
I feel sorry for myself
That's an easy thing to do
I feel sorry for the world
I feel sorry for you
Yes I am a pitiful sight
I can't even get one thing right

CHORUS:
I know just what it's like
To be ridin' in the rumbleseat
Yes I know just what it's like
To be a big time rider in the rumbleseat

Well I could have a nervous breakdown
But I don't believe in shrinks
I should be drunker than a monkey
But I don't like to drink
Call up some girls
But I'm afraid of the phone
I'm always talkin' to myself
I guess I'm never alone
Am I the only one that feels this way
I'd buy myself some stylish clothes
But I sure hate to pay

CHORUS:
I know just what it's like
To be ridin' in the rumbleseat
Yes I know just what it's like
To be a big time rider in the rumbleseat

The sun is coming up
Just goin' to bed
I combed my hair with my pillow
Still got some dreams left
Tomorrow is a new day
Gonna make these dreams come true
I'm gonna believe in myself
I'll tell you what I'm gonna do
I'm gonna stop puttin' myself down
I'm gonna turn my life around

I'll be ridin' high
With my feet kicked up in the rumbleseat
Yeah we'll go for a drive
And we'll be singin' shotgun from that rumbleseat
Yes I'll blow you a kiss
And we'll be ridin' big time in my rumbleseat

 

[lostinamerica]

West Virginia(-9) over South Florida (1*)
- - Just as much of the fawning over the ascendancy of WV HC Rich Rodriquez at his alma mater was giving way to some questions and some faultfinding, he steps up with the best coaching job of his five year tenure. It never occurred to me that No. 12 rated West Virginia would just coast now in the spotlight that has been hyped as a presumptive showdown game for at least a month. This is a mismatch, there is nothing forced about the showcase situation, maybe the pick is a dud.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Army(+6) over Navy (1*)
- - I posted before the Arkansas State game that I thought HC Boby Ross had this team responding and thriving to the point they could play the role of favorite. Back in their more usual position, this very live dog qualifies as a team that is learning how to win, and today I'll side with the collective spirit that should be palpable on the Army sideline as it works with a nice complement of matchups to exploit in laying the wood and gashing its way downfield.
Army Press Luncheon Quotes
From the Doldrums
Mids focus and a look back at 38-17 win over Temple
Mids etc.

GL

 

[bdaniel1]

Great detail and agree on your sentiment regarding MJ's posters. Good luck.