Wk. 13.

[MrChristo]

I'm not even going to bother showing my record, because it hasn't been above +2 or below -2 all year!! :cursin:
(Yep! I'm the definanition of a .500 bettor :clap: )

Atlanta @ Carolina under 43

League: 4-16 under (Av. total 39.4...av. score 31.4) any away dog, off a 14+ ats win as any away fav. [Atl]
(0-7 under (Av.total 40.4...av. score 28.4!!) if opp is off any ats win)
(1-7 under (Av. total 44.2...av. score 35.4) if total is 40+)
1-9 under (Av. total 37.9...av. score 24.3!!!!) if opp was last away!! ***

League: 1-8 under (Av. total 41.2...av. score 34.0) home 3- fav off a 3- ats win as an away 7- fav. [Caro]

*** Also 1-9 SU in this spot...in the 10 games, the 10 away teams have averaged 6.6 ppg!!!!

Atlanta rely heavily on their running game to move the ball, but Carolina have the number 1 run D in the league, allowing just 3.3 ypc.
Only 1 of Atlanta's 5 road games has gone over this number, at NO, who are terrible defensively.
Carolina also run it more times than they throw, and I suspect they will be happy to run at the Falcons who are allowing 4.6 ypc.

Tennesee @ Indi over 50

Well, Indi can score!!...since wk. 4 they have averaged 35.5 ppg...and they do score when they need to....
...When their opposition has scored just 10 or more (6 times) they've av. over 38 ppg!
Realistically, Indi have played just 3 teams that are decent offensively...45-37 v. Cinci; 40-21 v. NE; & 45-28 v. SL.
Tennesee now have their offense back and just about fully healthy and they have scored 28 and 33 in their last 2 games.
Their defense is still crap tho!...they've allowed 30+ in 7 of 11 games!!
This should be a huge shoot-out indoors in perfect conditions.


Pittsburgh -3 (1.89)

League: 21-9 (Av win 9.5) home 7- dog, off a 10+ ats loss as away 7+ dog, if opp was last at home. [Pits]
9-1 (Av. win 6.9) if opp was last a 3+ fav.

I really like getting the 3 here. Pittsburgh were beaten badly on national tv, Monday Night, while Cinci have racked up 79 points in their last 2 games...looks easy right?? Na.
Cinci run D is allowing 4.5 ypc, so Pits should have no trouble repeating their performance from Wk. 6 @ Cinci, when they ran for 226 yards @ 5.2, had the ball for more than 10 minutes longer...and won the game 27-13.
Rothlesberger back (and with a game under his belt) is a BIG plus for this team, as they average over 2 ypp more with him @ QB than anyone else, which further opens up their running game.
I really think Pittsburgh will control this game and win it reasonably comfortably.

Jets @ NE under 42

I don't really understand this number at all.
I've said before that the difference between home and road games for rookie QB's is MASSIVE!!...So just after a game where the Jets score 19 against a terrible defense at home v. NO, now suddenly they can score at will?!!
They average just 7.3 ppg on the road!!...their road games av. 32.5 points, and they av. 33.7 points in all games on grass.
NE's defensive problems have been against the pass, but that won't be a problem this week...their run D is actually quite good,allowing just 3.8 ypr.
Somewhat surprisingly, NE have only topped 24 once since week 1, and that was indoors @ Atlanta.
Their home games av. just 40.7 points...and I don't expect this one to get anywhere near that!!
Strong play for me.

Good Luck all

 

[Kodiak9er]

I like all 4, GL bro....

 

[MrChristo]

Arizona @ San Fran under 44 (2.02)

League: 1-11 under (Av. total 41.1...av. score 34.0) home 3- dog, off a 3- ats loss as away 7+ dog. [SF] (0-2 under this season)
0-6 under (Av. total 39.3...av. score 29.8!) if opp is off any ats loss.

League: 5-13-1 under (Av. total 38.0...av. score 35.7) away 3- fav off any ats loss as home 7- dog. [Ariz]
(0-3 under (Av. total 44.7...av. score 38.7) if total 40+)
1-8-1 under (Av. total 38.6...av. score 32.2) if opp is off any ats loss.

I've been a bit hesitant to play this under, but now Smith is starting it's an easy decision! He has completed 23 of 50 passes for 200 yards...@ 4.0 ypp...NO TD's....5 INT's and a passer rating of 17.5!!!
To make things worse, SF have an extremely unsettled O-line...one of their Guards will start at Centre, and the other 4 men have a combined 36 career starts.
SF will have little choice but to rely on their running game, and they should have some success against the Cards who allow 4.4 ypr.
The first meeting this season was Ariz 31-14...but BOTH of SF's TD's came from fumble recoveries.
Smith was 6/10 for 34 yards in that game.

Both teams score more FG's than TD's...so even if the SF D give up one or two big plays (as they are prone to do!), 44 does seem like a lot of points.

 

[MrChristo]

Gotta love a good NFL under! (It's about the only thing I can get right!)

Oakland +11.5

League: 13-3 (Av. loss 8.2) away 10+ dog, total 40+, off a 14+ ats loss as any home fav. [Oak]
8-0 (Av. loss 0.6!!) if opp is off an ats win.

The line is inflated because of both teams performances last week, but the high total figures that Oakland will score enough to keep it close.
They haven't lost a road game by more than 10 so far (av. loss of just 1.0), and even if it is a blow-out, you can always count on some Marty-style 'prevent' defenses late.