Tulsa over UCF

[Scott4USC]

Ok, I started capping this game and I don't get the vegas line. I am not real familiar with either team but look at the numbers. I don't post my plays anymore but thought I share what I capped on this game. Maybe someone can convince me UCF is the play. The evidence is overwhelming in support of Tulsa and I couldn't help myself and not post it. To my surprise, NOBODY here is talking about this game. :shrug:

Tulsa is +1.5 over Central Florida

Tulsa comes into this game winning 5 of their last 6 by a margin of 20pts! The 1 loss was @UTEP by 3pts. UCF comes into this game winning 5 straight but only by a margin of 6pts. So we have 2 hot teams but Tulsa is dominating their competition, the same competition UCF has played.

Results against same opponents

Tulsa won @Tulane by 24pts!
UCF beat Tulane @home by 10pts!

Tulsa beat E. Car. @home by 32pts!
UCF won @E. Car. by 10pts!

Tulsa won @Rice by 20pts!
UCF won @Rice by 3pts!

Tulsa won @S. Miss by 17pts!
UCF lost @S. Miss by 21pts!

Tulsa beat Memphis @home by 6pts!
UCF beat Memphis @home by 11pts!

Team Stats

Tulsa averages 32 ppg
UCF averages 27 ppg

Tulsa gives up 23 ppg
UCF gives up 25 ppg

Tulsa slightly averages more yards passing than UCF and both teams average the same rushing yards.

Tulsa gives up only 180 yards passing per game while UCF gives up a whopping 243 yards per game. Both teams give up relatively the same rushing yards per game.

Tulsa is the more disciplined team averaging fewer penalties than UCF. Both teams are + turnovers this year.

UCF lost their best or 2nd best WR (Walker) in their last game of season against Rice to knee injury.

UCF has won a lot of close games this year with the ball bouncing their way. Are they going to rely on having the ball bounce their way against a team who doesn't turn the ball over and commit silly penalties? Against the vegas #, all you are asking for is Tulsa to win the game? Like I said, I have not seen much film on either team so that worries me a little. But I love everything I capped about this game and thought many of you would like to see the numbers.

Everything points Tulsa's way and I thought I share it! Especially since this game is getting very little attention.

 

[thom24ad]

Thanks Scott,
I'll circle Tulsa and this late in the season I like the dogs...gonna do some research on these teams

 

[Scott4USC]

Thanks Scott,
I'll circle Tulsa and this late in the season I like the dogs...gonna do some research on these teams

Post your analysis what you find! Whether it supports Tulsa or UCF. Thanks!

 

[Trizzle]

Why don't you post your plays anymore?? I always enjoyed your analysis and coattailed you on many.

 

[hedgehog]

Scott how many units are you bettting on Tulsa? As many as the Louisville and Wisconsin games earlier this year? I like Tulsa myself. good luck

 

[Hokie Fan]

Where is this game being played??
Floridia I think maybe even at UCF
Could that be the reason the line is out of whack..
Dude start posting again
Always read your stuff..

 

[Sabroso Gusto]

What does Sagarin say?

 

[Noclue#1]

This is the biggest game EVER for ucf. They probably will sell out the citrus bowl also. This is the biggest buzz in this town since shaq left town.

just some local info

good luck

 

[Scott4USC]

Why don't you post your plays anymore?? I always enjoyed your analysis and coattailed you on many.

I was posting all my plays and all my plays with analysis. Then I lost huge play, my biggest play of the year on UL over USF. I also lost most of my other plays the same day. I was down over 30 units for year on posted plays. I was mocked and made fun of in my thread. To me, that wasn't right. Especially when I take the time to type why I am betting each and every play and keeping a perfect and honest record. So I said to myself, fawk these posters but I'll continue to post and get myself back in the black for all those who did follow me. I'll stop posting AFTER I am ahead with profit. So I kept posting and as soon as I won 34+ units profit, I stopped after going ahead +4 units for the year. I don't need to post plays and then read people mock me for losing day or losing big bets. All in all, I actually have done better "not" posting my plays. But this Tulsa over UCF was too good to be true when I handicapped it so had to post it.

Scott how many units are you bettting on Tulsa? As many as the Louisville and Wisconsin games earlier this year? I like Tulsa myself. good luck

Not sure how many units. Have not placed a wager yet on Tulsa since I am not real familiar with them or UCF. I honestly have only watched 1 Tulsa and 1 UCF game all year and it was beginning of the year.

Where is this game being played??

Game is @UCF and there is suppose to be $hit load of UCF fans at the game. Fans are pumped in FL for UCF.

What does Sagarin say?

Sagarin likes Tulsa to barely win straight up. Sagarin also has both teams playing relatively the same SOS. Everything is pointing Tulsa's way on this. Looking for people who are familiar with both teams and/or backing UCF.

 

[Scott4USC]

Well that was an EA$Y WINNER! Tulsa +1.5 underdog wins by 17.

I also had additional statistical info on Tulsa but couldn't post because I was banned for 2 days.

I was shocked to see so few threads (if any) about this game between Tulsa and UCF.

I was blown away with the statistical advantage that Tulsa had over UCF coming into this game. I wanted to pound the $hit out of Tulsa but couldn't do it because I only seen each team play once all year. Wasn't familiar at all with both teams. Still played Tulsa big not not as big as I should have based on the analysis. I can tell you this, next time I see a team have this big of a statistical advantage, i will pound it no matter how familiar I am with the teams. Just amazing stats supporting Tulsa. Only argument I could come up with supporting UCF was the huge home crowd advantage. Guess it didn't help UCF much.

 

[HoopsGuru]

nice pick scott, always like to see your write ups, went along with tulsa but only for a small play based on your same feelings of not familiar with the teams. good job! any thoughts on the o/u for the rose bowl, i thought i saw a number in the low 70's today. seems a little high for the pressure of the title game.

 

[Scott4USC]

nice pick scott, always like to see your write ups, went along with tulsa but only for a small play based on your same feelings of not familiar with the teams. good job! any thoughts on the o/u for the rose bowl, i thought i saw a number in the low 70's today. seems a little high for the pressure of the title game.

I think the total is correct. As of right now, I think USC will score in the 40's and Texas will score in the 20's. But there are ton of practices to be critiqued and players injuried coming back etc. As of right now, I think i would lean to the under as well. I wonder what the average total has been for all BCS bowl games. I bet well under 70. Should be a lot of value. I also think USC will run the ball well against Texas and that will eat the clock. Texas rushes the ball a lot too especially QB rushing plays. The more rushing attempts, faster the clock ticks.

To bad the total wasn't set in the high 50's. I might be "tempted" to bet the over on that! I never have bet against USC or on totals in USC games.