Iowa over Florida........

[Scott4USC]

I think Iowa has the advantage over Florida.

Kirk Ferentz I think is a better HC than Meyer but more importantly Meyer is preparing a team for a bowl game that isn't designed for his system. I think Ferentz will have his team better prepared. With the exception to USC in the OB, he has outcoached his opponents and his team is always prepared. Meyer is a question mark with this team and program. In bowl games I look hard at possible coaching advantages. Coaching advantage Iowa.

Iowa runs the ball better than Florida and stops the run almost as good stat wise. I think it is always good in bowl games to take the better rushing team. I think it is much easier to have success rushing the ball vs passing attack after long layoff.

If you look closer than just the stats, Iowa has been better with the run than Florida the last 3 games. I like the momentum of Iowa program heading into this game.

Another note. Florida has benefited being +18 in turnover margin in a weaker conf. while Iowa is -1 for the year in a tougher conf.. If Iowa doesn't turn the ball over, Iowa should EASILY win this game.

 

[CWood97]

Agree 100% Scott. This Iowa team has vastly improved over the course of the season. Ferentz is the best teacher in the college game IMO.

 

[gman2]

there are many reasons to like iowa, but none of them involve any coaching mismatches. thats preposterous. ferentz is a terrific football coach. but meyer isn't going to be outcoached by anyone.

re: turnovers.

its amazing how you skew things to benefit "your side"
florida is +18 in turnover margin, yet you discredit that by saying they play in a weak conference?

this whole year you've been touting how usc is the #1 team in the nation when it comes to forcing turnovers and what a big advantage that is for them. when usc forces turnovers, its great defense but when florida forces them, its because of their conference? sorry, you normally make good arguments but this one is nuts.

 

[Scott4USC]

there are many reasons to like iowa, but none of them involve any coaching mismatches. thats preposterous. ferentz is a terrific football coach. but meyer isn't going to be outcoached by anyone.

re: turnovers.

its amazing how you skew things to benefit "your side"
florida is +18 in turnover margin, yet you discredit that by saying they play in a weak conference?

this whole year you've been touting how usc is the #1 team in the nation when it comes to forcing turnovers and what a big advantage that is for them. when usc forces turnovers, its great defense but when florida forces them, its because of their conference? sorry, you normally make good arguments but this one is nuts.

I think Ferentz is a better coach. Meyer did poor job adapting to the talent and players at Florida. Should have had much more success. I am not a big Meyer fan. I think he is a solid coach but a great coach puts his players in best position to succeed. I do not see that out of Meyer.

I said Florida played in a "weaker" conf. I think the Big 10 is better than the SEC. Iowa and Florida have similar records. What would Iowa record be in the SEC with +18 turnovers? What would Florida's record be in the Big 10 -1 turnovers?

USC defense is proven to cause turnovers. Every year they put the same stats. It is not lucky bounces or lucky year. Phile Steele always has an article on this beginning of each season. Interesting. Carroll designs his defense that way and practices forcing turnovers. Florida I don't know if they are proven defense forcing turnovers or not. I see both teams with similar record, Iowa playing in better conf. and FL being +18 in turnovers with Iowa being -1 in turnovers. Iowa is playing better football to end season and IMO if they don't turn the ball over, they win the game. Basically, that is what my original post says. I have not read any extensive Florida analysis over Iowa. I wait patiently at this site to read some.

 

[Roger Baltrey]

Scott,

I live in Utah and have watched Meyer and you are dead wrong. He is a stud and that will be proven out. Utah 12-0.....nothing else needs to be said, including victories over your beloved Pac 10 against Cal and Oregon, the #2 and #3 programs in that conference. Did you want him to bench Chris Leak? Also, he had huge injuries. These are 2 of the best coaches in CFB, no advantage Ferentz.

 

[Scott4USC]

Scott,

I live in Utah and have watched Meyer and you are dead wrong. He is a stud and that will be proven out. Utah 12-0.....nothing else needs to be said, including victories over your beloved Pac 10 against Cal and Oregon, the #2 and #3 programs in that conference. Did you want him to bench Chris Leak? Also, he had huge injuries. These are 2 of the best coaches in CFB, no advantage Ferentz.

If you read my post carefully I said Meyer doesn't have his players in his his system. In Utah, he had his players in his system. This is year 1 of Meyer and he clearly has not put his players in the best position for them to succeed. I think great coaches do exactly that. I doubt you will see Leinart and USC running the option against Texas because Aggies had success doing it.

Some would argue Leak has regressed as a QB. did Meyer put Leak in the best position to succeed? He is very talented QB. I'll take Ferentz coaching players who have been in his system for YEARS! Players Ferentz recruited to fit his system. That gives Ferentz a huge coaching advantage to design gameplan to beat Meyers team. Coaching advantage Iowa.

"Maybe I am dead wrong."

 

[Roger Baltrey]

I'd argue that Leak is over rated and Meyer played the hand he was dealt. They have also had devastating injuries yet still beat Georgia, Fla St and TN. The Fla St pistol whipping looked better a week later when they went out and upset VA Tech. What did Pete Carroll do in his first year at USC? Urban has lost like 6 games in the last 4 years. Ferentz is awesome but someday you will be calling Urban Meyer one of the best coaches in the NCAA. By the way, he didn't implement the same offense "yet" at Florida. By the way, I don't disagree with you on the game.

 

[AU2001]

I am convinced Scott posted this play simply because he wants someone to know that he thinks the big-10 is better than the SEC.

How can being +18 in turnover margin be a bad thing for any team in any conference? Seems to me that would indicate either an offense that doesn't turn the ball over, or a defense that causes TO's.

Not disagreeing with your play, but like gman, some of your logic is questionable at best.

 

[Scott4USC]

I'd argue that Leak is over rated and Meyer played the hand he was dealt. They have also had devastating injuries yet still beat Georgia, Fla St and TN. The Fla St pistol whipping looked better a week later when they went out and upset VA Tech. What did Pete Carroll do in his first year at USC? Urban has lost like 6 games in the last 4 years. Ferentz is awesome but someday you will be calling Urban Meyer one of the best coaches in the NCAA. By the way, he didn't implement the same offense "yet" at Florida. By the way, I don't disagree with you on the game.

Good points. Carroll lost his first bowl game in year 1. Las Vegas Bowl to Utah. I think lost by 4pts. I had big wager on USC in that game. Learned my lesson. Last big loss I have had on USC.

I am sure Meyer will do great things and prob. contend for NC's. But Carroll lost his 1st bowl game at USC. Maybe more due to year 1 in CFB coaching while Meyer is experience at BG and Utah.

I am not putting the label of Meyer as a GREAT coach yet. He inherited a lot of talent at FL and they underachieved. I know it takes time to build a team etc. I'll give it to him. Doesn't mean I'll say he is a great coach. He has to earn that right coaching a BCS team. IMO, FL underachieved this year. Lotta talent on that team. Zook was great great recruiter. As for Leak being over-rated. USC coaches, especially Norm Chow wanted Leak badly. Real bad. I doubt he is over-rated. I don't follow FL closely so I dunno.

I am convinced Scott posted this play simply because he wants someone to know that he thinks the big-10 is better than the SEC..

Isn't that a great reason to take Iowa over FL. If you think the Big 10 is better than the SEC, and Iowa from Big 10 in a game where they are 3pts. I think it makes logical sense.

How can being +18 in turnover margin be a bad thing for any team in any conference? Seems to me that would indicate either an offense that doesn't turn the ball over, or a defense that causes TO's.

Good pt. I agree. I just see Iowa being -1 and FL being +18 and Iowa and FL having similar records with Iowa playing in a conf. that is clearly better. I also see an Iowa team playing good football coming into this game. I said, if Iowa doesn't turn the ball over, I think they win EASILY.

Not disagreeing with your play, but like gman, some of your logic is questionable at best.

I agree. But I am posting MY OPINION on why I think Iowa covers. It is up to you to agree/disagree etc. But I don't have a problem with you or anyone else disagreeing with my logic and posting it publicly. I am not insecure and don't mind people disagreeing with me. You explained why disagreed which I appreciate and somewhat agree with you. I do not follow FL closely so I do not know if they been having a lucky year with TO's or are they forced TO's. This isn't a huge play for me so I am not looking into that stat further. I just thought I post my opinions on this game for people to see if they were thinking about wagering on this game.

 

[hawkeye]

Go Hawks!!

 

[Roger Baltrey]

Scott,

Keep an eye on Meyer in the coming years. You will love his style. No punts on 4th and 3 from the other teams 37 yard line. The guy has balls and he works a local community like no one else . And when he has a team down he steps on their throat. Kind a like Pete Carroll.

 

[blgstocks]

Big 10 is a better conference, and I really don't see a way to convince any die hard SEC fans. but you can count the teams ranked in the top 25 for one, or their position for another, or the teams rank going into the season that might influence thier ranking, and might be the reason why the havent fallen very far when losing a game.

Anyway you look at it SEC has same ranked teams, overall about average middle teens while big 10 has two real lows and 3 highs in top 25, but SEC DEFINITELY has more ranking bias imo. How else can you explain Tennessee being ranked 5th this season? Both conferences have terrible bottom of the barrell teams.
But to be honest if SEC didnt have the state of mississippi in it, i would easily take the worst of SEC vs worst of any other conference.

The more and more I do research as I write this post I come to the conclusion that the conferences are pretty evenly rounded. I believe the best of the big-10 can beat the best of the SEC without blinking. And there is no doubt that either SEC is overated or Big 10 is underated.

 

[ParlayMaster]

Florida wiltl beat Iowa by two touchdowns. The Gators have not won a bowl game in three years and they are definitely rounding into form to do so. Urban wants this bowl game bad and the Gator nation is hugry for a bowl victory. Look for Coach Meyer to pull out all the stops en route to a great victory that propels them to a top 5 preseason ranking in 06'. Go Gators 30-17

 

[Roger Baltrey]

Parley,

Don't disagree that Florida is rounding into form but Iowa also takes these games very seriously and with the exception of the ass whipping they got from a superb USC team a couple of years ago they play very well in bowl games. They also are playing their best football of late with convincing wins over Wisconsin on the road and a thumping of Minnesota. This will be close game and my only lean is to take points.

 

[Teddy Dupay]

I agree with ParlayMaster. Urban Meyer and the Gators need this bowl victory. Urban silenced the critics in the last game by thrashing the Noles, but if he loses this game the boo birds will come out once again. Meyer will have this team prepared for Iowa after over a month off unlike the Zook-coached Gators of 2 years ago. The Gators are actually happy to be playing in the Outback Bowl this year. Look at Meyer's bowl record. Better yet, look at his record when he has at least 2 weeks to prepare for a game. UM is unbeaten after a bye week. Florida will be ready. Gators to the bank especially if the line keeps heading south. Now -2.5.

 

[DerekNJND]

Not disagreeing with your play, but like gman, some of your logic is questionable at best.

You question someone's logic? :mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07:

Mr. Auburn can beat anyone just becuase "I say so" :mj07:

 

[socrstud]

like Iowa over FL as well Scott....GL they have been playing very well as of late..

 

[s_dooley24]

Scott I know this isn't a USC-Texas thread and some people will go crazy if this spins into one. However, I was just wondering if you already have or are considering hedging your USC futures by playing Texas ML? Seems like a no-brainer, maybe not to go 50-50 because I'm sure you still like USC but at least some to cover you position. Either way just curious and I'm sure a lengthy response is in order...

 

[romanowski]

Iowa travels very well too, dont se much of a homefirld advantage for Florida here

Iowa peaks around this time of year as well

 

[Scott4USC]

Scott I know this isn't a USC-Texas thread and some people will go crazy if this spins into one. However, I was just wondering if you already have or are considering hedging your USC futures by playing Texas ML? Seems like a no-brainer, maybe not to go 50-50 because I'm sure you still like USC but at least some to cover you position. Either way just curious and I'm sure a lengthy response is in order...

Who cares if others dislike your question. It is a good question, especially if you are in same boat as me holding USC futures wager. Or if you are looking to wager on the game.

Honestly, as stupid as it may sound, I am thinking about NOT hedging. I am becoming more and more confident in USC beating Texas. But I am waiting to see USC practices. They have not inserted gameplan yet and I want to make sure all the players are healthy and everything goes smoothly. But right now, I am leaning towards NOT hedging. But a lot can change. Especially if I can read solid analysis why Texas will beat USC.

Last year I had BIG USC futures bet on USC to win it all. I hedged a small part of it because I felt there was a small chance of OU beating USC. I saw some things OU could do to beat USC. For the most part, I was confident USC was going to win by a TD or more. Did "not" predict a USC blowout. I think this years ROSE BOWL might be easier than last years ORANGE BOWL. There is a lot of stuff to support this claim. I'll post it when time comes. My analysis will make logical sense and you will see how USC can exploit Texas in so many different ways.

I'll post whether or not I hedge (and how much) and I will give a detailed write-up why I think USC or even Texas will win and/or cover.

First I need to see how USC practices.

Oh yeah, USC coaching staff is very confident facing Texas. Someone who knows the coaches told me this. Carroll said if USC executes, USC will win by 10-14pts. He did NOT say this to media. It was to a private person to person chat. I'll know a lot more when USC starts the practices. Carroll is saving most of his bowl practices closer to gameday.