ncaa football: mac bowl games .......

gman2

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 12, 2002
9,827
16
0
toledo (-3) over utep
memphis (-5.5) over akron

utep flat out imploded to end the season. the conference usa title was theirs for the taking before they fell apart against uab and smu, giving up 75 points combined in those two losses. on paper, they're a good team. but injuries took (and are still taking) their toll on the miners. running back tyler ebell is not going to be playing so thats one less weapon toledo has to worry about.

on the toledo side, this is a big game for gradkowski because he gets another chance to impress pro scouts in a bowl game. last year, he busted his thumb in the mac championship game and it never healed in time for the uconn game. for those that remember, he tried to play through the injury but he just couldnt grip the ball and his passes were fluttering all over the place. he eventually gave way to marques council (last years backup) and toledo was routed.

for those who prefer some numbers -

toledo qualifies as a strong rushing dog, as they hold nearly a 100-yd edge in that department over utep.

and although all games are certainly exclusive from one another, the mac has never lost in this bowl game. thats doesnt mean toledo goes out and wins by 20. but the rockets ARE aware of this and have mentioned it so its just a little more incentive for them.

==

gonna go with the chalk in the motor city bowl as well. hate to lay a lot of points before the new year, but just dont see these dogs hanging within a touchdown.

akron came back and won the mac championship game against northern illinois, but that cant hide the fact that garrett wolfe ripped them a new ass to the tune of 270 yards. and as good as wolfe is, deangelo williams might be even better.

akron's defensive numbers were improved this year, but some of that was because of a favorable schedule down the stretch. however, central michigan's ontario sneed went for 183 yards on the ground and miami's brandon murphy went for 184. so thats a bit of a red flag for the zips defense.

akron qb luke getsy started the season strong, then slumped badly before finishing strong. it'll be interesting to see how he handles joe lee dunn's defense because getsy has been prone to some questionable decision making at times this year. he'll definitely see some new looks.

just get the feeling the memphis running game will do in the motor city bowl what the northern illinois running game SHOULD have done in the mac title game -- control the game and wear down the zips defense.

that's it for the 2005 portion of the season. enjoy the games fellas.
 

Irish

Green&Orange
Forum Member
Jan 8, 2004
3,850
16
0
47
OH
Gman
you're killing me.... hate to be head to head but I have a serious lean on UTEP. I like the rockets offense and head coach but I think the minners have the edge in talent, however they have not played a good game for a while. Still best of luck this bowl season. Seasons Greetings to be PC about it.

Cheers
Irish
 

gman2

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 12, 2002
9,827
16
0
irish:

no need to be pc -- merry christmas my friend. just feel like utep's injury situation leaves them a little thin. also cant ignore the fact that palmer has only thrown 7 less interceptions this season than gradkowski has thrown in his career at toledo. should see a lot of points but just think the rockets are a little better and gradkowski's decision-making plays a role. we'll see. could be dead wrong.
 

gman2

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 12, 2002
9,827
16
0
also a small shot on toledo to score first at (-125). rockets are not a defer-team, and they've scored 112 pts in the 1st quarter this year. they've scored 1st in 9 of 11 games and don't see tonight being different. that's normally a trademark of amstutz teams. they'll script the first 10 plays and mix up the run and pass and get on the board early.
 

DerekNJND

Registered
Forum Member
Oct 21, 2005
2,022
4
0
44
Jersey
gman2 said:
also a small shot on toledo to score first at (-125). rockets are not a defer-team, and they've scored 112 pts in the 1st quarter this year. they've scored 1st in 9 of 11 games and don't see tonight being different. that's normally a trademark of amstutz teams. they'll script the first 10 plays and mix up the run and pass and get on the board early.

Thats the kinda stuff I like, nice work man. I've played the Chargeres first Quarter in NFL 4 times this year since I dug up a stat that they had outscored opp on average by over 7 in that quarter. Result: 3-1 so far. Even in their SHOCKER loss to the Fins at home, they still led 7-0 after the first quarter and got me a win! :mj07:

With all the talk of tonight's game being a coin flip and a shootout, I have a feeling one team is going to have a very good night and the other is going to have a very bad night. Whoever wins will win by 10+ IMO, so I'm thinking about Toledo -9 on a prop, that pays out +200.

You've changed my view on this game; you do your homework on these smaller conference games, and your opinion comes at a very high value to me. Thanks for the hard work, and GL on the play pal.
 

IX_Bender

Registered User
Forum Member
It would equally suprise this handicapper to see Mike Price and his high powered offense defer to the second half.

The other side of the coin is the big play capabilities of UTEP who has also managed to score 1st in 9 of the 11 games they have played in this year. Both these teams like to get out front and take the lead. Id take whichever line Vegas puts out that is positive money.

Can anyone confirm Ebell is OUT and just how much Mineo is expected to contribute?
 

Smitty

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 5, 2005
7,284
1,922
113
Upstate NY
thanks, gman. i already really liked toledo. now i love 'em. i thought ebell was expected to play. if he's slowed though, that's a major blow to the utep offense. i haven't been that impressed with palmer.

go rockets!!
 

gman2

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 12, 2002
9,827
16
0
3 Seconds said:
Toledo is favored.

GL G-man!

whats weird is that i capped the game the same way the judge did. and i almost subconsciously capped UT as a rushing dog, even though i knew they were laying points. not sure why. principle of the play remains the same obviously -- rockets should control the game on the ground. but rushing dog not the correct capping term. my apology for that one.
 

spang

specialist
Forum Member
Mar 22, 2000
4,202
5
0
68
N.E. Ohio
Nice to open with an easy one. Solid call!

Memphis was my first bowl play long ago, just wondering if the line will drop a bit later? Seems like the Zippys have become somewhat of a public darling. They have received some nice national media exposure and suddenly everybody seems to love the Zips.

BTW: Nice to see that Akron sold their entire allotment of tickets, so there will be 10K plus Zip fans in Detroit.

Also sent you an email, let me know if you can use 'em.
 

gman2

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 12, 2002
9,827
16
0
spang:

sent an e-mail back your way.
and on an akron note, i'm sure we can both agree that they're not going to roll over utep-style, but asking them to stay within a touchdown just might be a little too much. it is very good to see that akron will be well-represented though. here's hoping the zips travel that well if they find their way into the dance in march. ;)
 

Scott4USC

Fight On!
Forum Member
Sep 11, 2002
5,410
18
38
44
Thanks gman2! :thumb:

You didn't win me money but saved me from losing money.

I was going to bet big wager on UTEP ML over Toledo. I didn't think Toledo was a good team on grass and the DC for Toledo SUCKS. I watched few Toledo games and I don't like the way they play D. I thought a Mike Price coached team that was embarassed in its last two regular season games would come get the WIN. I know you are a proven MAC guru, saw you on Toledo :scared, read your analysis, and I decided to lay off. Thanks for taking the time to post anaylsis. Much appreciated. Without your analysis, I prob. would have lost good size wager on UTEP ML (which I planned on doing).

Thanks agian and good luck rest of bowl games! Congrats on your Toledo win. :clap:
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top