bowl plays & other stuff....

[AR182]

final regular season record...

173-109-4...+70.20*.....

i'm putting all my bowl plays in this thread....had a terrible bowl record last year....hopefully i'll do better this year (really can't do worse).....

you may win if you bet dogs for every bowl game, but it isn't guaranteed that you will win money....i posted this info in the "10 commandments" thread but in case some missed it......

given the addition of several bowl games, the December underdog approach must be tempered and segregated.

There are now 6-7 bowls games before Christmas where previously there were none until after Christmas.

If we take the games and segregated them into two groups for December -- pre and post Christmas, then we have a different story to tell.

Post Christmas bowl game underdogs are 64-31 ATS or 67% since 1998. These are usually games where the favorite is not focused and wishing it was in a better bowl game while the underdog is focused and out to prove themselves and that they belong at the bowl party. These underdogs are very intense and want to play.

However, pre Christmas results are only 5-14 ATS (26%) since 2000 when the pre Christmas games really got started in earnest.

In January, most games are very good match ups as most are ranked teams and playing for ?something?. The numbers are 50-37 ATS or 57% for the favorites since 1994.

 

[AR182]

i'm not playing the game between so. miss/ark. st. but read an angle in a newsletter pertaining to the game.....take it fwiw.....

play against any college pre-new years day favorite that won less than 8 games, if they average less than 121.5 offensive rushing yards per game vs. an opponent that averages more than 140 offensive rushing yards per game......

since 1980 the ats record is 15-1.....94%

play against so. miss...

 

[AR182]

here is something else that i read in a newsletter....


things to remember when betting the bowls....

don't bet on any team unless you think the team can win the game....since 1980 of the 482 teams who won bowl games, 409 of them covered...that is 80% ats !!...

don't play against any dog who out rushes it's opponent by an average of 75 or more yards per game if that opponent has a w/l % that is less than .666....these dogs are 21-6 ats since 1980....that is 77.7 % ats !!....

don't take any dog or favorite of 3 or less who allowed 30 or more points per game on the season...since 1980 there have been 16 teams....none won the game & of the 5 who covered the spread, 4 were double digit dogs....

don't take any favorite who won the final game of the season as +6+ in a conference game...since 1980 the ats record is 3-15 ats...that is 16.6 % ats....

 

[Teddy Dupay]

thanks, AR. thats some intersting stuff

 

[bombercoops]

Always value your trends AR. Keep them coming if you don't mind mate. Finding it hard to pull the trigger on Ar st tho.

 

[AR182]

2.5*toledo-2(120).....

it looks like i'm in the minority on this play....but really like toledo's balanced offense vs. utep's more pass oriented offense.....

the conference's that both teams played in are pretty even, although the the various sos sites that i use give toledo the slight edge with playing a tougher schedule....

toledo's offense averages 34.9 ppg & 445.2 ypg....their rushing attack ranks 12th in the country by averaging 221.6 ypg.....their qb, gradkowski (missed a few games because of injury) is considered nfl caliber & completed 62.6% of his passes & threw for 24 tds & 10 ints.

on defesne, toledo allowed 22.5 ppg & 323.4 ypg.they allowed 132.2 ypg on the ground....

utep's offense averages 33.5 ppg & 438 ypg...they averaged 127.5 ypg on the ground.their qb, palmer 9also nfl caliber) completed 60.8% of his passes & threw for 28 tds & 18 ints....

on defense, utep allowed 24.2 ppg & 364.8 ypg. they allow 160.4 ypg on the ground....

utep has some injury concerns...

here are excerpts of an article that i read on another forum concerning utep's injuries.....

" Wide receivers Chris Marrow and Jayson Boyd will be on the sideline, along with senior running back Tyler Ebell.

Boyd leads all receivers with an average of 18 ? yards per catch and Ebell had been an effective runner, particularly in the red zone with a team-high five rushing touchdowns. Marrow was expected to have recovered from an ankle injury that held him out of the last three games, but the Miners announced last weekend that he is not healthy enough to play in the GMAC Bowl.

On top of those injuries, receiver Chris Francies, the Miners? second leading receiver, is suffering from bruised ribs and other injuries. He?s expected to play, but he won?t be 100 percent.

UTEP still has some quality receivers on the roster, but it has relied on depth at that position to sustain a versatile passing attack. The passing game is their bread and butter and, against the top defense in the MAC, the Miners will need big performances from their healthy pass catchers if they want to keep pace with Toledo."

besides the injuries, i like toledo because...

they have a more balanced offense...

palmer's tendency to be careless with the ball..throwing 18 ints vs. gradkowski's 10 ints

we never really know beforehand where the team's head is at, but i question utep's desire to be at this bowl game....before the season started many people predicted that they would win c-usa's conference, but didn't. at the end of the season, they had 2 chances to win the conference crown. utep was favored by 7 at home & lost to uab, & then in the final game they were again favored by 7 at smu & lost that game & also the conference crown...in those 2 games they gave up 75 points & committed 11 turnovers.....on the other hand, i think toledo is out to erase the last 2 bowl games in which they were embarrassed.....

this is going to be a high scoring game...utep is 0-7 su/ats in their last 7 games when allowing more than 28 points...

good luck.

 

[Irish]

AR
great stuff, looking forward to your plays, hope you have a very lucrative bowl season. best of luck!

Cheers
Irish

 

[AR182]

thanks irish..appreciate it....


5*calif.-6....

got this a few weeks ago...

if you ask many people what teams were the flatest (is there such a word..lol) in last year's bowls....i think most people would say ucla getting upset to wyoming in last years vegas bowl & calif. getting humiliated to texas tech.....

i think calif. will be very motivated to show everybody that the pac-10 is far superior this year to the mountain west in this years vegas bowl & to erase their bad performance from last year.history has shown that the pac-10 wins these games comfortably when they are motivated for this bowl game....& i think that's what will happen in this game.....

calif. has 2 runners this year that have combined to rush for over 2,000 yards, where they are averaging 6.7 ypr vs.teams that allow 4.9 ypr....byu's defense allows 4.9 ypr to teams that average 4.6 ypr......running behind a very good offensive line, i think calif.will control the line of scrimmage on offense.....in addition to being vulnerable to the run, byu surrenders 7.3 yds. per pass play to teams that average 6.3 yppp against an average defense.....with all of the problems they had at qb, calif. averages 6.1 yppp vs. teams that allow an average of 5.7 yppp on defense....overall cal's offense averages 6.4 yds. per play vs. teams that allow an average of 5.1 yds. per play...so don't think calif. will have any problems moving the ball & scoring on byu.....

byu offense averages 6.1 yds. per play vs. teams that allow an average of 5.3 yds. per play on defense.....cal's. defense allows 5.0 yppl to teams that average 5.7 yppl on offense...so i think cal. will be able to slow byu's good offense down...

i think that there is a big class difference in this game & if calif. is motivated they should win by 14-21 points....i'm betting that they will be motivated....

good luck..

 

[AR182]

2.5* kansas-3....

usually in bowl games, the team with the better defense wins.....in this game kansas has a very good defense that i think will hold houston to under 21 points....kansas will win this game on the ground where houston allows a little over 5 ypr....

i see kansas winning this game by 10-14 points...

good luck.

 

[Dayad]

Thanks for your insight AR and GL

 

[ajoytoy]

173-109-4...+70.20*.....

superb job Al...continued success and I hope you and your have a safe and happy holidays

 

[AR182]

here are some angles that i read....take it how you want....

teams that can rush for 200 or more yards in bowl games against an .800 or worse opponent are 61-17 ats (79.2%)......

now we have to figure out what teams can rush for over 200 yards...

2 that come to mind are...toledo & navy....maybe memphis.....any others ?



teams that are coming off a su win as a dog of 7 points or more are 4-17 ats (19%) in neutral site bowl games when not getting at least 6 points.....

also bowl favorites that ended the regular season with b2b wins & a revenge win in their last game are 19-47 ats (28.7%).....

both angles above apply against nevada.....any other teams ?


good luck.

 

[BRUSHMAN]

GL AR!!!Hope all goes well

 

[trolln4walii]

Fantastic year AR. :clap: Sincerely hope you continue with a successful bowl season. Your threads are a must-read for all MadJackers.....thanks for all you do. I'll keep eyeing your thread throughout. Right now the only games I've wagered on are USC -6-, Kan -3 (very happy to see you on this ), Boise +1- (love them at home on the blue carpet), Ore -3, Min -3, SCar -4, and Fl -2-. Way too many favs. :scared Hope to find you on a few of the same. Happy Holiday wishes to you and your family :mj14:

 

[Ratslla]

Good Day & Good Luck!

Ratslla

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Nice Job AR---173-109-4...+70.20*.....

Quite an amazing accomplishment especially in light of almost 300 plays and and one of toughest sports to cap. To hit above 60% is very rare indeed.
:toast:

 

[wareagle]

i'm not playing the game between so. miss/ark. st. but read an angle in a newsletter pertaining to the game.....take it fwiw.....

play against any college pre-new years day favorite that won less than 8 games, if they average less than 121.5 offensive rushing yards per game vs. an opponent that averages more than 140 offensive rushing yards per game......

since 1980 the ats record is 15-1.....94%

play against so. miss...

16-1 :clap: :mj14:

thanks AR!

 

[Clem D]

Fantastic year AR. :clap: Sincerely hope you continue with a successful bowl season. Your threads are a must-read for all MadJackers.....thanks for all you do. I'll keep eyeing your thread throughout. Right now the only games I've wagered on are USC -6-, Kan -3 (very happy to see you on this ), Boise +1- (love them at home on the blue carpet), Ore -3, Min -3, SCar -4, and Fl -2-. Way too many favs. :scared Hope to find you on a few of the same. Happy Holiday wishes to you and your family :mj14:

A must read.. you can say that again. but incase you don't I just did!!

 

[AR182]

thanks for the nice words, guys....i really appreciate it....

time permitting, i try to share some of the info i pick up during the week.....i think that is what the forum is all about....

hopefully my luck will continue during the bowl season....

 

[kcwolf]

Thanks for the hard work. I think we have the right side tonight. All about the rushing game.