LOCK OF THE YEAR????

[Scott4USC]

Why the fawk is North Carolina -4.5 over USC? I just bet 2k to win over 1k on UNC ML at Pinnacle. Had to put in wager twice since $500 limit. I don't understand this line. I have not watched 1 UNC game all year and I have watched ZERO USC games. But this is money well spent. I thought USC be double digit underdogs. Say +11. Not +4.5. USC lost first 2 games of year and then is on some 7 game win streak. BIG WHOOP! I think most of the teams were $hit teams.

UNC will expose USC's weaknes. That is NO BIG MEN! Home field advantage? NOPE! I think only 9k tix were sold and I bet a lot of UNC fans will be at the game. Sports Arena SUCKS!

I'll be shocked if USC beats UNC. If I already cashed my USC futures wager, I be very tempted to lay 10k to win 5k on this game. VERY TEMPTED! I'll play it safe. If I lose, it was money well spent. I think USC is over-valued because they won 7 straight games, UNC young team (USC is young too), and success of USC football team.

USC loses by double digits. I am just asking them to lose by 1pt or more.

I warn you I have not watched a UNC or USC game all year. I am just basing my info on what I have read about both teams and friends of mine who are USC hoops fans etc. Sucks I can't go to game since I will be at my Grandma's 75th party. I am not sure I even will be able to watch it on TV. But this should be an EASY 1k. Wish I cashed my USC futures wager and put 10k on this. Right now I don't want to risk losing 10k on a hoops wager on 2 teams I hve not watched. Nonetheless, this is a big bet for me! Especially in hoops which I hardly bet.

 

[gman2]

cross-country road chalk with a team that is super young and still untested? kentucky win was definitely a good win for them, but its a lot different playing on the road when youre expected to lose compared to being expected to win. southern cal has played much better since getting blasted by oral roberts. line is a little lower than i expected, but not much. thought unc would be 5 or 6 tops. but would it really be an "upset" if usc won? not imo.

 

[yak merchant]

USC doesn't have enough home games for my computer to come up with much, but I will say I don't think the line is too far off. Good news is that moneyline is probably going to take off with all the NC money, so you'll probably be able to hedge it before tip off and make a guaranteed profit. Good luck.

 

[Scott4USC]

This would be a HUGE upset for USC. At least that is what media is saying here in SO CAL. That is what USC fans are saying. USC hoops team was expected to be very bad and is playing very good now. 7 game win streak is impressive. BUT from what I remember, that 7 game win streak is against $hit teams. Nothing special. USC IMO is over-valued. USC also has NO SIZE! USC has talent perimeter but nothing inside. UNC will score easy baskets down low. If USC big men get in foul trouble, GAME OVER! No BENCH! But you are right it isn't smart taking a young team (UNC) across country. But I would say that if UNC played UCLA. This is USC. USC is in MAJOR, MAJOR rebuilding mode.

Just like my argument against SEC in football. WHO GIVES A $hit if you beat bunch of nobodies. USC is over-rated. I think they get BLOWN OUT! I am just taking the safe bet in UNC ML. If it is somehow close, I have no faith in USC pulling it out. Especially when USC has no bench which will hurt late 2h.

Again, you brought up excellent pt but I see NO argument for USC in this game other than UNC is young. Well, USC is young too but with no big men. UNC at least has full team of young talent. Sports Arena is NO HOME COURT advantage at all. ZERO! USC players also prob. be nervous playing UNC.

 

[SixFive]

Scott, where are your football bowl plays including all of your futures wagers? I can't find them.

On this game, I don't think it's ever a lock to back a young team laying chalk cross-country. Bet UT Martin WEdnesday night if you want a very nice play. GL!

 

[saint]

This post coming from someone who knows carolina inside and out but knows nothing about usc except for the fact that we kicked the crap out of them last year...

I wouldn't be surprised if USC wins this game. This heels team is pretty good but with youth comes inconsistency. The final box scores of the Santa Clara and St Louis games are very misleading. Those were both very tight games that unc could have easily lost. Their offense is not very good despite the numbers they've put up. Their outside shooting is very weak, if you take out the kentucky game where they were on fire there is not much to look at. If there's one thing I've learned from betting on sports these past several years it's that whenever something looks too good to be true line-wise, well, it probably is.


I have to edit my post because I just looked at USC's current 'winning' streak.

Eastern Washington, Alaska-Anchorage (by one point), UC Riverside, BYU, Loyola Marymount (by two points), Western Michigan and Alcorn State.

This might just warrant a carolina play. If so better grab it now, likely to move.

 

[LET'S EAT!!!]

scott-

im sure you will have a 101 naysayers come in here and give their contrarian opinions on ur play....line is a trap,unc too young,line is begging for unc money,too good to be true....blah-blah-blah.....im with u on this one....sometimes when it looks to good to be true it is fvcking true....2 games that come to mind are illini -2 at oregon on dec.10th when illini blew em out by 30 and everyone was on oregon with the books want illini money theory.....yeah right.....the other one was colorado -8 at tcu last night and colly beat em by 18 and again alot of people on tcu cause of the line makes no sense theory.....sometimes u just got to not overthink it and keep it simple and play the better team....i could give 2 shits about how young unc is....they are clearly the better team from the acc which is a serious hoop conference....we dont know jackshit in the pac 10 about hoops anymore.....also arent all these college kids young???.....hello???the difference is that the acc and unc in particular get all the best "young" kids in the country....so yes i'll take my chances with the best "young" players in the country and i'll bite on the "trap" line and take unc...not saying that tim floyd sucks,but i'll take roy williams over him anyday of the week as well....also dont let usc's 7-2 record fool u,the only decent team out of those 7 wins is byu and they beat them by 6....they havent come close to facing a team as fast and explosive as unc...the heels went into kytucky and beat em by 4 and their only loss came to the illini by 4....so i like are chances.....fvck it!!! they're just gonna have to show my ass.....heels by 7 to 10 pts......by the way i had illini against oregon(im a duck fan and know they're shitbox) and i played colly small last night against tcu for a dollar so what the fvck do i know.....good luck to us......le

 

[LET'S EAT!!!]

This post coming from someone who knows carolina inside and out but knows nothing about usc except for the fact that we kicked the crap out of them last year...

I wouldn't be surprised if USC wins this game. This heels team is pretty good but with youth comes inconsistency. The final box scores of the Santa Clara and St Louis games are very misleading. Those were both very tight games that unc could have easily lost. Their offense is not very good despite the numbers they've put up. Their outside shooting is very weak, if you take out the kentucky game where they were on fire there is not much to look at. If there's one thing I've learned from betting on sports these past several years it's that whenever something looks too good to be true line-wise, well, it probably is.


I have to edit my post because I just looked at USC's current 'winning' streak.

Eastern Washington, Alaska-Anchorage (by one point), UC Riverside, BYU, Loyola Marymount (by two points), Western Michigan and Alcorn State.

This might just warrant a carolina play. If so better grab it now, likely to move.

saint-

ive got alot of respect for u and ur knowledge of unc hoops....im glad u edited ur post....just gotta say that i'll take all of unc's misleading #'s of over 50% fg% and 82+ pts per game avg and 34% 3-pt% all day over sc's 70 pts per game avg and their 29% 3-pt%....only concern i have about the heels is they suck from the line....outside of that i luv this game....heels win by 7 to 10 pts....gl....le

 

[Dayad]

GL Scott

 

[rrc]

Scott you write..

"This would be a HUGE upset for USC. At least that is what the media is saying here in SO CAL. That is what the USC fans are saying"

If in fact the media and the fans all think NC is the "sure" winner that would lead me to lean towards a play on USC.

Last week before the Chicago Bears game the media and the fans were 90% down on the Bears. "Their d sucks, they can't stop the run, their QB sucks etc.....

When you have placed your big plays the last couple years those plays have been based on YOUR research and thoughts. NOT what the MEDIA and other FANS think.

Don't change your thinking from what has proven profitable in the past.

All the best on your play, but be wary of placing a lagre wager on 2 teams you have yet to see play...simply doesn't seem to make sense.

 

[saint]

Good luck--- in the end I can't get myself to pull the trigger on this one, I just have a bad feeling about it but I've been wrong before. The line has moved against you and is now at -3.5. I'm not one into reading line changes but I can't think that overnight action would be from joe-public with money on USC.

 

[taoist]

...with a thread title like this one, I cannot help but to think that the first thing that comes to most people's minds in this forum is..............................


Scott


Lock of the Year on an NCAA basketball game when you haven't seen either team play????


Brilliant


:s4:

 

[Scott4USC]

Scott, where are your football bowl plays including all of your futures wagers? I can't find them.

On this game, I don't think it's ever a lock to back a young team laying chalk cross-country. Bet UT Martin WEdnesday night if you want a very nice play. GL!

All my future wagers were posted. Posted prior to season (obviously). I won over 6k USC going undefeated prop bet and have over 20k on USC winning it all at around +190 odds.

I don't post all my plays anymore in CFB. It isn't worth it. I was going to stop when i was down 30+ units because of all the negative posts. But I did not want to quit being in the negative and I knew I would get into the positive so i told myself I'll post my picks until I get on the positive. Soon as I won 34 units, 4+ units of profit, i stopped posting picks with 4 weeks left in season.

Taoist post is classic example. I post my plays, I say exactly what is on my mind and why "I" am betting it. I also explain how strong I feel about it and whether it is big play and how much I wager on it. If i am betting a team because I like their colors on uniform, I"ll post it. But there is absolutely NO REASON I should get flack for posting a play and explaining my reasons. These are MY REASONS! It is MY MONEY and MY WAGER! Most here just post plays with no analysis what so ever. I posted saying I have not watched either team play because that is the truth. Don't want someone taking my opinion thinking I follow USC basketball very closely. Or that I follow USC hoops same way I follow USC football.


rrc

Good pts. But if i don't bet big on this play, I'll regret it. I will not regret losing 2k on UNC but would regret not betting this big if UNC won. I see UNC winning. Crystal clear to me. Not worried one bit about this game. USC is over-valued. USC has ton of weaknesses that UNC can expose. USC IMO only chance is if they get on fire draining 3's. I am betting it doesn't happen. Even if it does happen, it still prob. be tight game.

A USC hoop fan I know said this after I asked him for prediciton. I asked him give me your real prediction, then give me what you heart says. He says USC wins close one with his heart but reality he see's USC losing by 13pts. This is USC's first big test. I think they lose big. This is suppose to be HUGE rebuilding year for USC. USC has no big guys and no depth. USC will be the smallest team UNC faces all year. I am predicting BLOWOUT! I got UNC less than -200 ML is a STEAL. At least I think so!


Lets Eat

You made great pts and I agree. I usually don't give a crap about public $$$ or what sportsbooks are trying to do. In fact, I made 2 CFB plays this year, both pretty big plays too based on public etc and I lost them both badly. I think most important thing is betting what you think will happen. Who cares what vegas does or public. Too many here think vegas tries to trick you. I don't buy into that.

 

[Scott4USC]

It all boils down to this. I think this is one of those games where you watch the game and/or see the final score, UNC blowing out USC. You think to yourself, UNC was only 4pt favorite? Look at how UNC is dominating. Does USC have anybody down low? Zero inside presence. Geesh. Why didn't I put more emphasis on this. How did USC win 7 straight? I guess USC schedule really inflated their 7 game win streak. USC doens't look that great. Damn, I missed out on this one. This was such an easy pick. USC SUCKS! I am betting against them next game!

I will gladly lose 2k to prevent myself from saying this during/after the game.

 

[DOCSPRAY]

good point.

 

[kegray1]

The line is going the other way.
I have it at -3
Having seen USC a couple of times, I agree with everything said.
They are young,short, and do not have a great deal of talent. The Sports Arena will not be rockin as USC fan doesn't give a crap about the basketball team.

I think it would take a majot lemon game out of UNC not to win or cover this game. Roy should have them ready for it.
UNC(-3) BIG for me.

 

[SixFive]

wish you would post them Scott. I enjoy your threads, and although you might be a little over the top sometimes, I think you're alright. GL!

 

[saint]

Don't mean to hijack the thread, for those of you interested in some chapel hill media links:

http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/480790.html

http://www.chapelhillnews.com/sports/story/2861584p-9318249c.html

http://www.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/stories/122005abs.html

 

[mode the lode]

line down to 3.5, WTF, whats up ???????????????????/

 

[Scott4USC]

I got the ML last night at -184. When I put in the ML wager, line was -4.5 -106.

The ML currently is -190 but spread is -4 -106.

I think at one pt the spread went down to -3.5 at pinny but the lowest ML went was -175.

UNC wins by double digits!