Fort Worth Bowl - Scout Inc's take

BobbyBlueChip

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The Fort Worth Bowl features two 6-5 teams in Kansas and Houston. The matchup to watch will be the Cougars' offense, led by quarterback Kevin Kolb, against a tough Jayhawks' defense.


Kansas Offense vs. Houston Defense
While it will spread the field with thee-receiver sets and attack downfield at times, Kansas' offense is run-heavy and for good reason. The Jayhawks are at their best when they can control the clock and keep their stout defense well-rested. They can also afford to show a strong commitment to the run because Jon Cornish and Clark Green share carries. While neither back has elite power or speed, both run hard and that doesn't bode well for a Houston run defense that is giving up an average of 4.6 yards per carry.

Kansas head coach Mark Mangino stated that QB Jason Swanson could have returned to the Iowa State game after leaving with an undisclosed leg injury. As a result, expect him to start. But if Swanson struggles at all early on, Mangino should have no problem making the switch to backup Brian Luke, who led the Jayhawks to their comeback victory over the Cyclones.

Regardless of whom the Jayhawks line up under center, look for them to get the ball in the hands of WR/DC Charles Gordon. Gordon has good quickness and he can make defenders miss after the catch.


Houston Offense vs. Kansas Defense
Houston also shows a strong commitment to the run as RB Ryan Gilbert is a 1,000-yard rusher. However, the Cougars will have to rely on the arm of QB Kevin Kolb more than usual going up against a Kansas run defense that is giving up an average of 2.5 yards per carry. The Jayhawks are led by Big-12 Defensive Player of the Year OLB Nick Reid and he makes plays all over the field.

It should be fun to watch when Kolb drops back to pass because he is a gunslinger. He has the mobility and arm strength to make some spectacular plays but he makes some poor decisions and he gets into trouble when he tries to do too much. Kansas' offense doesn't put a lot of points on the board so it's important that Kolb is willing to throw the ball away or take the sack when nothing is available downfield.

Special Teams
Kansas PK Scott Webb has had a strong year. He has shown good accuracy and adequate range while connecting on 14-of-17 field goal attempts. P Kyle Tucker has been even more impressive averaging 42.9 yards per punt and placing 19 of his 64 punts inside the opponents' 20-yard line. He has a powerful leg so the Jayhawks can also use him to attempt long range field goals. One area of concern is Kansas' punt cover unit, which has been inconsistent at best.

Houston PK T.J. Lawrence has connected on just four of his nine field goal attempts so don't be surprised to see the Cougars go for it on 4th and short situations. P Justin Laird is averaging 38.6 yards per punt so he has adequate leg strength but he isn't all that accurate.

Three Key Individual Matchups
1. Kansas WR Charles Gordon vs. Houston DC Willie Gaston
2. Houston RB Ryan Gilbert vs. Kansas OLB Nick Reid
3. Houston WR Vincent Marshall vs. Kansas DC Theo Baines


Scouts' Edge
The ability of Kansas's strong defense to slow down Houston's potent offense is the key to this game and that's good news for Jayhawk fans. Kansas' stout run defense is capable of keeping Gilbert under wraps and forcing Kolb to move the offense with his arm. Although he should make some highlight-reel type plays, Kolb will also press and he will make some poor decisions consequently. These poor decisions will result in stalled drives and/or turnovers. Kansas' offense isn't flashy or explosive but it's determined and its ground game will allow it to control the clock. That will effectively limit Kolb's opportunities to put points on the board. It's also important to note that the Jayhawks have been far more productive in the second half this year because they have been able to wear opposing defenses down over the course of the game.

Prediction: Kansas 20, Houston 14
 

BobbyBlueChip

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Belly of the Beast
Sides (ATS) ATS
Date Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Record
12/23/2005 Houston +3 768 34.3% Kansas -3 1471 65.7% Detail

65% on Kansas. :scared

EZ Money :grins:
 

Unicorn

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BBC, where do you get these write ups? I might not agree with all that is said here, like you have stated, but they've been pretty close so far. At least it's a good read. Thanks.. :mj14:
 
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