Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Play: Over 31
Comment:
Pros:
One misconception when betting on totals is the notion some believe poor running games, turnover prone offenses, and dominant defenses more times than not favor the under. As mentioned last week in my Ravens/ Packers write up, anemic running games leads to pass happy offenses. Pass happy offenses lead to non- time consuming drives, quick 3 and outs, turnovers and quick scoring drives( all factors that favor the over). Turnover prone offenses enable opposing defenses opportunities to score or set their offense up with excellent field position. Dominant defenses (like the Bears), also have the ability to cause quick 3 and outs and set up their offenses with good field position. However, when some handicappers see these variables, they automatically assume a defense of slugfest, anemic offenses, and sloppy mistakes that should make it difficult for the teams to score. The line makers know this is how most people think, and have reacted in setting one of the lowest totals of the year. Thus creating value and an intriguing opportunity for people who like the over.
When Orton was quarterback, the Bears were forced to become an offense that ran as much as possible, and past only when necessary. Their vanilla game plan was not only easy to defend, but when successful, still took a lot of time off the clock. Now that Grossman is at quarterback, expect a somewhat of a different game plan. They will still be a run first offense, but his ability to effectively pass the ball, will force the Packers to stack the box less aggressively than if Orton were at quarterback. This should open up the running game as well. The Packers appear to be getting progressively worse in defending the run. It was apparent last week that their defense has thrown in the towel, and they lacked the intensity and tackling ability to shutdown a smash mouth running attack that the Ravens and Bears posses. Expect the Bears to have a more efficient running game than they had in the first game, which should also open things up more for Grossman. When Grossman came into the game in the second half last week, the offense seemed to have an entirely different mindset. They appeared to be playing with much more confidence and rhythm. He provides the Bears with a more rhythmic 3 and 5 step passing game that keeps the opposing defense on their heels. Expect his consistency and accuracy to keep drives going that would normally be stalled if Orton and his inconsistent arm were leading the Bears. Also expect the Bears to open up their game plan a little more now that Grossman is in. The Bears know that they can?t continue to rely on such a vanilla game plan if they want to go deep into the playoffs. They will try to see where they stand as far as big play capability goes now that Grossman is deemed the starter the rest of the way. Not only will this enable the Bears offense to be more productive, but it will also allow the drives to chew up less time. The bottom line is the Bears offense will get progressively better now that they have a quarterback the rest of the players believe in. The Packers defense appears to have packed it in, and even a divisional rivalry might not be enough for this team get motivated (look no farther than the Raiders yesterday against the Broncos).
The Packers offense has become so bad that it is now hard to even watch them. Farve seems to be just throwing up prayers (that aren?t being answered); while his receivers aren?t giving him the effort he is looking for. Every time their running game appears to have found a legitimate runner, he gets injured, leaving the Packers to have to find someone else. Normally, people would think this favors the under- but not so fast. Without a running game to be found, the Packers will more than likely be forced to pass more than ever today. The Bears are one of the harder teams to have to chip away yards against. Their outstanding swarming and tackling ability makes it extremely hard to keep sustainable drives going that heavily rely on first level passing. This leads me to believe the Packers and Farve will come out gunning. Expect them constantly attempt to attack the second and third level defense of the Bears. The Bears safeties are injured, making them vulnerable within the hash marks. Whether this passing attack is successful or not, it will lead to quick drives that either put points on the board, lead to interceptions that set the Bears up with easy points, or are quick three and outs that take little time off the clock and enable the Bears to start with good field position. The Packers were downright embarrassed on national television on Monday night. That coupled with this game being a hated rivalry leads me to believe their offense will put in a more motivational performance this week. Expect Farve to play a more inspirational role that doesn?t just go through the motions. I am sure he didn?t like the fact he was watching the fourth quarter of last weeks game on the sidelines. Expect him to do all in his power to avoid the same thing from happening at home. The Packers offense will come out to play today.
Good value on the over. For all intensive purposes, all this game needs to go over is for both teams to score at least 14 points. That is not much to ask for, and a total this low has little room for defensive or special teams? touchdowns. The way the Packers defense played last week makes the possibility of the Bears covering the over on their own greater than one initially would think.
Cons:
When totals are set this low, they are set this low for a reason. Last time these two teams went at it, the game was more of a battle of field position than a battle for points. The game also didn?t reach 30 points. Weather is also a concern, making it really tuff to consistently catch the ball. The Bears have one of the least potent offenses in football, and haven?t put up more than 20 points in seven games, and have only put up more than 20 points in just 3 games this year. Rarely do they make big plays, and have to eat up a lot of clock to put the ball in the end zone. In a nutshell, the Bears are an ideal under team. The Packers offense has been atrocious, and more than likely, things won?t get any easier for them today. The Bears are one of the hardest teams to consistently attack the second level against. They rarely blitz, and their outstanding ability to put pressure on the quarterback with their front four allows them to drop seven in coverage. This allows the safeties to play deep while the linebackers fill the inner hashes. If Farve wants to open up the offense, he might hit a brick wall. The Bears passing game might struggle as well. The Packers corners do a good job with press coverage. This will make it hard for Muhammad to get open, and will also disrupt the time routes Grossman heavily relies on.
If neither defense scores, this over may be in jeopardy.
Conclusion:
Expect both offenses to open things up more today than they have in the past. Grossman will enable the Bears to rely on the pass more, while the lack of a decent running back will make the Packers rely on the pass more as well. Whether the passing game is effective or not, offenses that are predicated on the passing game always favor the over. Expect the Bears to put their in their best offensive performance in months, while their defense will have several opportunities to score. Expect a more inspirational performance out of Farve and the Packers offense. Don?t be surprised if they are able to light up the scoreboard on pure intangible psychological variables as well. This total is just set too low not to pounce on the over.
Play: Over 31
Comment:
Pros:
One misconception when betting on totals is the notion some believe poor running games, turnover prone offenses, and dominant defenses more times than not favor the under. As mentioned last week in my Ravens/ Packers write up, anemic running games leads to pass happy offenses. Pass happy offenses lead to non- time consuming drives, quick 3 and outs, turnovers and quick scoring drives( all factors that favor the over). Turnover prone offenses enable opposing defenses opportunities to score or set their offense up with excellent field position. Dominant defenses (like the Bears), also have the ability to cause quick 3 and outs and set up their offenses with good field position. However, when some handicappers see these variables, they automatically assume a defense of slugfest, anemic offenses, and sloppy mistakes that should make it difficult for the teams to score. The line makers know this is how most people think, and have reacted in setting one of the lowest totals of the year. Thus creating value and an intriguing opportunity for people who like the over.
When Orton was quarterback, the Bears were forced to become an offense that ran as much as possible, and past only when necessary. Their vanilla game plan was not only easy to defend, but when successful, still took a lot of time off the clock. Now that Grossman is at quarterback, expect a somewhat of a different game plan. They will still be a run first offense, but his ability to effectively pass the ball, will force the Packers to stack the box less aggressively than if Orton were at quarterback. This should open up the running game as well. The Packers appear to be getting progressively worse in defending the run. It was apparent last week that their defense has thrown in the towel, and they lacked the intensity and tackling ability to shutdown a smash mouth running attack that the Ravens and Bears posses. Expect the Bears to have a more efficient running game than they had in the first game, which should also open things up more for Grossman. When Grossman came into the game in the second half last week, the offense seemed to have an entirely different mindset. They appeared to be playing with much more confidence and rhythm. He provides the Bears with a more rhythmic 3 and 5 step passing game that keeps the opposing defense on their heels. Expect his consistency and accuracy to keep drives going that would normally be stalled if Orton and his inconsistent arm were leading the Bears. Also expect the Bears to open up their game plan a little more now that Grossman is in. The Bears know that they can?t continue to rely on such a vanilla game plan if they want to go deep into the playoffs. They will try to see where they stand as far as big play capability goes now that Grossman is deemed the starter the rest of the way. Not only will this enable the Bears offense to be more productive, but it will also allow the drives to chew up less time. The bottom line is the Bears offense will get progressively better now that they have a quarterback the rest of the players believe in. The Packers defense appears to have packed it in, and even a divisional rivalry might not be enough for this team get motivated (look no farther than the Raiders yesterday against the Broncos).
The Packers offense has become so bad that it is now hard to even watch them. Farve seems to be just throwing up prayers (that aren?t being answered); while his receivers aren?t giving him the effort he is looking for. Every time their running game appears to have found a legitimate runner, he gets injured, leaving the Packers to have to find someone else. Normally, people would think this favors the under- but not so fast. Without a running game to be found, the Packers will more than likely be forced to pass more than ever today. The Bears are one of the harder teams to have to chip away yards against. Their outstanding swarming and tackling ability makes it extremely hard to keep sustainable drives going that heavily rely on first level passing. This leads me to believe the Packers and Farve will come out gunning. Expect them constantly attempt to attack the second and third level defense of the Bears. The Bears safeties are injured, making them vulnerable within the hash marks. Whether this passing attack is successful or not, it will lead to quick drives that either put points on the board, lead to interceptions that set the Bears up with easy points, or are quick three and outs that take little time off the clock and enable the Bears to start with good field position. The Packers were downright embarrassed on national television on Monday night. That coupled with this game being a hated rivalry leads me to believe their offense will put in a more motivational performance this week. Expect Farve to play a more inspirational role that doesn?t just go through the motions. I am sure he didn?t like the fact he was watching the fourth quarter of last weeks game on the sidelines. Expect him to do all in his power to avoid the same thing from happening at home. The Packers offense will come out to play today.
Good value on the over. For all intensive purposes, all this game needs to go over is for both teams to score at least 14 points. That is not much to ask for, and a total this low has little room for defensive or special teams? touchdowns. The way the Packers defense played last week makes the possibility of the Bears covering the over on their own greater than one initially would think.
Cons:
When totals are set this low, they are set this low for a reason. Last time these two teams went at it, the game was more of a battle of field position than a battle for points. The game also didn?t reach 30 points. Weather is also a concern, making it really tuff to consistently catch the ball. The Bears have one of the least potent offenses in football, and haven?t put up more than 20 points in seven games, and have only put up more than 20 points in just 3 games this year. Rarely do they make big plays, and have to eat up a lot of clock to put the ball in the end zone. In a nutshell, the Bears are an ideal under team. The Packers offense has been atrocious, and more than likely, things won?t get any easier for them today. The Bears are one of the hardest teams to consistently attack the second level against. They rarely blitz, and their outstanding ability to put pressure on the quarterback with their front four allows them to drop seven in coverage. This allows the safeties to play deep while the linebackers fill the inner hashes. If Farve wants to open up the offense, he might hit a brick wall. The Bears passing game might struggle as well. The Packers corners do a good job with press coverage. This will make it hard for Muhammad to get open, and will also disrupt the time routes Grossman heavily relies on.
If neither defense scores, this over may be in jeopardy.
Conclusion:
Expect both offenses to open things up more today than they have in the past. Grossman will enable the Bears to rely on the pass more, while the lack of a decent running back will make the Packers rely on the pass more as well. Whether the passing game is effective or not, offenses that are predicated on the passing game always favor the over. Expect the Bears to put their in their best offensive performance in months, while their defense will have several opportunities to score. Expect a more inspirational performance out of Farve and the Packers offense. Don?t be surprised if they are able to light up the scoreboard on pure intangible psychological variables as well. This total is just set too low not to pounce on the over.
