Bears/Pack - Scouts Inc.'s take

[BobbyBlueChip]

Sorry so late - Too much f'in family


Bears must smother Favre By Scouts, Inc.


Why To Watch
Coming off an embarrassing loss to lowly Baltimore on Monday Night Football, it may seem like the Packers are ready to mail it in for the last two games of the season. Despite a terrible performance, QB Brett Favre will want redemption, and the best way to get it is with a win over their bitter NFC North rival Bears.
There will be some questions answered in this game. Will the Packers let QB Aaron Rodgers play a meaningful role? Is this the changing of the guard at quarterback for the Packers? Is Rex Grossman the answer for the Bears as they head to the playoffs? These questions and more will be answered on Sunday.


When the Bears have the ball
Rushing: Thomas Jones has become the workhorse of this very predictable Bears' run game, and his production is really surprising, considering the fact that defenses load up to stop him with no regard for the Chicago passing game. There is a good chance the Bears can wear down what appears to be a tired Packers' defense. They will probably give Adrian Peterson more carries. He is a powerful, between the tackles runner who complements the quickness and change of direction of Jones. Most run games go right after Packers' RDE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, but the Green Bay coaches are doing a nice job in recent weeks of only making him a pass-rush specialist and keeping him out of the lineup on run downs.

Green Bay can afford to bring an extra defender, probably strong safety Mark Roman, into the box in run support and will even crowd their linebackers close to the line of scrimmage. Jones and Peterson will see a steady diet of at least eight run defenders. The Bears may try some counter plays where they start right and cut back left, running behind their best blocker LOT John Tait. It is imperative for the Packers to generate good defensive production on first and second downs, as the Bears really struggle on third-down conversions -- especially if it's third and plus five. The Chicago offensive line is capable of getting a good push in the run game, and if Jones sees a crease, he can get to the second level and force the Packers back seven to have a good tackling day.

Passing: Right now, this is the second-worst passing offense in the NFL, but it may not be all Kyle Orton's fault. Orton has good physical skills, but was flustered at times in the passing game, as this coaching staff simply would not him open things up. It is a safe and unimaginative passing game, and it's easy for defenders to guess and jump routes.

This is a run-oriented offense that plays not to lose. Now Rex Grossman is in the mix, as he replaced Orton in the win over Atlanta, but the offense won't likely change a lot with Grossman as the starter. Chicago has only one legitimate vertical receiver, Muhsin Muhammad, and luckily for the Packers, they have one physical press corner in Al Harris.

The Packers probably will try to disrupt the timing of the passing game and take Muhammad out of the mix with aggressive man-to-man coverage. We may see Grossman utilize more three- and five-step drops, and a quick passing game that may feature tight end Desmond Clark. That will prevent him from taking a lot of unnecessary hits. Green Bay may put an extra defender in the box in run support and dare him to throw the ball versus single coverage. The Packers will use some overload blitzes to attack the right side of the Chicago offensive line and will try to get in Grossman's face early. The Packers can gamble with blitzes, as they don't fear the passing game matchups.

When the Packers have the ball
Rushing: Packers' running back Samkon Gado is a great 2005 story, but for all of his flashes of greatness, he also has some periods of inconsistency. The Packers are still trying to figure out if he is the back of the future for them, and facing an outstanding Chicago run defense will be a huge test. Gado may not be available to take that test, however, after suffering a knee injury Monday night and leaving the game in the first quarter.

It will be difficult to open holes for the Packers' offensive line, as the Bears' defensive front four is a one-gap, penetrating group and their initial quickness makes it tough to get good blocking angles. If that weren't enough, the Chicago linebackers do an excellent job of stepping up and filling versus the run. This is a very disciplined, gap-control run defense and that doesn't give up a lot of big plays.

If DTs Ian Scott and Tommie Harris do a good job of occupying blockers, it will free up MLB Brian Urlacher to flow to the ball and make plays sideline-to-sideline. Urlacher is coming off a huge performance against Atlanta and has better range versus the run than any other guy at his position in the NFL.

The Packers would love to run the ball well enough early to force Chicago to bring a safety down into the box, and that would give Favre some perimeter matchups with only one safety to help over the top. Meanwhile, the outside linebackers will continue to play contain schemes versus the run and force everything back inside to Urlacher.

Passing: Because the Packers have had so many injuries to key offensive players, they have been forced in recent weeks to use a lot of exotic formations to disguise their personnel weaknesses. We will see multi-receiver sets at times and their U-71, three tight-end package at other times.

Brett Favre may also run bootlegs and rollouts, and maybe even a trick play or two to manufacture a big play and keep a good Chicago pass defense off-balance. However in Favre's defense, we are seeing a safer and low risk passing game by the Packers. They are starting to dump the ball off to backs and tight ends, and Favre is really looking over the defense and then checking down.

We are not seeing as much of the gambling, gunslinger mentality in the passing game any more, partly because the run game has given Green Bay a semblance of offensive balance. The Bears don't blitz a lot out of their cover two and their front four pass rush is outstanding, but Favre gets rid of the ball and doesn't' take a lot of sacks. He did take a couple of good shots in the first game when his inside protection broke down.

We may not see a lot of seven-step drops versus this rush, but if we see three- and five-step drops, it will be a short-to-intermediate passing game. That's where the Bears' linebackers match up so well in coverage. They all run well, and it will be very difficult for Favre to get much going in the underneath passing game. The Packers would like to try some deep shots to wide receiver Donald Driver, but the Bears will sit back in their two deep zone, and it is very difficult to throw over this secondary.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Bears middle linebacker Brian Urlacher was a terror early in the season as an inside blitzer and registered six sacks, but he has gone sackless for the last several weeks. A lot of his blitzes are the result good decisions -- his coaches give him a lot of freedom to attack when he sees an opening. Many times it's a delayed blitz that catches the offensive line by surprise.
When you watch recent film, it seems as if offenses are really looking for Urlacher and really stacking inside, even with their backs in blitz pickup. Although it may hinder his sack totals, the attention that Urlacher receives creates opportunities for other blitzers, even though the Bears pick their spots very carefully when blitzing and like to rely on their front four to create sacks.

? The elevation of Chicago quarterback Rex Grossman to starter may really open up the Bears' offense versus Green Bay. Not only does Grossman have a stronger arm and a better deep ball than Kyle Orton, but he will also try to get the ball more to his best weapon, wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad, who has been frustrated by Orton's inconsistent play.

Even though Grossman is largely unproven, you get the feeling that the coaches are going to let him open up this offense. If that happens, it positively affects the running game because defenses will have to sit back and play more honest schemes instead of crowding the line of scrimmage.

? This could be the week the Packers use the screen and draw heavily. The Bears have an aggressive defensive front four and show great quickness and penetration off the snap of the ball, which makes them susceptible to the screen. Successful draws will slow Chicago's defensive linemen down and neutralize the pass rush. New starting RB Tony Fisher is decent in the open field and can be dangerous if he gets some room. However, the Packers must block the linebackers, especially Urlacher, who will be sitting in coverage on the second level.

? The Bears are primarily a cover-2 defense, but they are not afraid to play man-to-man schemes, especially when they selectively blitz. They know that the only guy who Brett Favre really trusts is wide receiver Donald Driver. They also know that even if they roll their coverage, double team Driver or even play a tight cover-2, Favre will still force the ball to him. Taking Driver out of this game will negate the Packers' pass offense.

? The Packers like to use their "U-71" formation as not only a short-yardage scheme but also a base-run formation. Backup tackle Kevin Barry becomes the second tight end, and when he lines up next to the right or left tackle it gives the Packers two big bodies to run behind in the off tackle rushing game. However, Barry has not dominated in this formation in 2005 like he has in past years. Luckily for Green Bay, Chicago's Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye are primarily pass rushers and can be exposed by power offenses that run right at them. A big dose of the "U-71" could wear them down and negate their speed pass rush.

? The Bears are the best red-zone defense in the NFL and they will make things tough on Favre. In 34 red-zone opportunities, opposing offenses have only scored nine touchdowns. Part of the reason is that the Bears can easily make the switch from zone scheme to man-to-man as the field shrinks. Also, the defensive front seven is quick and active and matches up well in the red zone. With an offense that doesn't score a lot of points, Chicago needs to limit the opposition to field goals rather than touchdowns inside the 20-yard line.

? The Packers will likely commit strong safety Mark Roman to play a lot in the box in run support even if Grossman is more of a threat to throw the ball than Orton. Thomas Jones is a pretty good cutback runner, and the Packers will need good gap discipline. Roman playing up close will help.

? The Packers have a big decision to make at running back as the offseason approaches. All three of Green Bay's veteran backs, Ahman Green, Najeh Davenport, and Fisher, are unrestricted free agents and the Packers may lose all three. Is Samkon Gado the long-term answer? His audition was cut short by a torn MCL and he will miss the rest of the season. If he is, it gives the organization a lot of flexibility in the offseason and frees up salary-cap money to spend on other needs.

? One of the reasons the Bears' defense is playing so well is its depth at corner and defensive tackle, which gives the team a lot of flexibility in its schemes. Starting DCs Nathan Vasher and Charles Tillman are as aggressive and instinctive as they are tough. They can play cover-2 and attack versus the run, but they can also play man-to-man and even "press" when necessary.

Chicago's ace in the hole is quick nickel cornerback Jerry Azumah, who gives it three guys to match up in coverage against three-receiver sets. At defensive tackle, the Bears can rotate four defensive tackles, starters Tommie Harris and Ian Scott along with backups Tank Johnson and Alfonso Boone. This keeps the interior defense fresh and puts a lot of pressure up the middle versus opposing quarterbacks.

? Chicago wide receiver Bernard Berrian could give the Bears a spark down the stretch. He is a speed receiver who can make big plays in the passing game and also run reverses. With Muhammad getting a lot of double coverages, Berrian has a good chance to get one-on-one matchups if the coaches let Grossman throw deep.

? Chicago has a secondary that is solid in coverage, but it's also very physical. These guys punish receivers in space, break down in the open field and harass receivers off the line of scrimmage.

? A lot of people think that rookie quarterback Aaron Rodgers should get more playing time now that the season is lost, but that may not happen. Rodgers did not impress anybody in the preseason and has no supporting cast now to give him a chance for success. Favre has earned the right to play or sit whenever he wants.

? Green Bay is really hurting at linebacker. With little depth, it is not a good matchup group in coverage. The Bears could use their tight ends and backs in the short passing game if they get the linebackers in coverage.

? Green Bay's No. 1-ranked pass defense is misleading. The secondary is average, but the opposition usually gets a lead and then runs the football a lot to close out the game. It is improved and more disciplined under Jim Bates, but the secondary isn't tested as much as you might think.

Special Teams
Because the Bears put a premium on athleticism when they acquire players, they do an excellent job of covering punts and kickoffs. They have good, young athletes who get downfield quickly and run opposing offenses deep in their own territory, which helps an already outstanding Chicago defense. The rest of their kicking game is middle of the road. With deteriorating weather for the next two weeks and the playoffs in Chicago, kickers and punters are in for some real challenges.

The Packers are simply not very good in almost all phases of the kicking game, with the exception of covering punts. They are near the bottom in kickoffs and kickoff returns and are just not a disciplined group on cover teams. They also lack explosiveness in their return game. For a team that needs field position and a spark anywhere it can get it, expecting good things in the kicking game at this stage is overly optimistic.

Matchups
? Chicago WR Muhsin Muhammad vs. Green Bay DC Al Harris
? Green Bay WR Donald Driver vs. Chicago DC Nathan Vasher
? Chicago LOT John Tait vs. Green Bay RDE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila
? Green Bay LOT Chad Clifton vs. Chicago RDE Alex Brown
? Green Bay RB Samkon Gado vs. Chicago MLB Brian Urlacher


Scouts' Edge
It's hard to know how this game will play out because we really don't know the mindset of the Packers. They looked like a team that quit on Monday night in a blowout loss at Baltimore. You would expect a better effort in their next-to-last game at home (Seattle next week), especially against a division rival.

We would like to think that this will be an old-fashioned, "black and blue" NFC North battle on the frozen tundra, and we do know that Chicago will show up and play hard with the division title on the line. In a potentially low-scoring game in the cold, defense probably becomes the key -- and that's where Chicago has a significant edge. Both teams can play in bad weather, but the Bears' front-four pass rush will give Brett Favre fits and likely force mistakes. On the other side, we can't expect a lot from Rex Grossman either. This game will come down to field position and turnovers, and the Bears will control both areas.

Prediction: Bears 14, Packers 13

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Personally, I think this game goes over at the 10 minute mark in the third quarter. Pack O shredded the Bears first time out and Grossman/Jones will have their way.

Go Bears!! Go Over!!

 

[Clem D]

BBC Where do I sign up for 21-13 Bears?

 

[yyz]

BBC Where do I sign up for 21-13 Bears?

You don't!

:mj07:

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

BBC Where do I sign up for 21-13 Bears?

Just stay awake until halftime