i think you're probably on the right side on this one. the loss of brohm will really hurt louisville's offense. however.... we saw yesterday just how good miami is :scared and florida state was hardly dominant this year. ok, neither was as bad as south florida, but those losses show that v tech is not a great team this year.
some #'s in your favor... louisville relied heavily on their home field this year. they were 5-1 ATS at home and 1-4 ATS on the road. v tech was 5-0 away from home before the game against FSU.
good luck, i'll likely be on v tech with you, just not too heavy.