Smitty's 1/2 Bowl Plays

[Smitty]

don't look now, but smitty's caught fire. i've hit 5 straight plays. :scared of course, you know what that means... time to start fading.

i'm gonna post all my plays in this thread today. and i'm gonna pick all the games. what the heck? this is one of my favorite days of the year. it'll be some small plays early, leading up to one of my biggest plays ever on osu/nd.

so, without further ado... let the games begin:

cotton bowl
alabama (+3.5) 3 units. it seems every year, tech is poised to finally get a win in a big game. and they always fall short. i'm discounting last year's bowl win over cal, since cal clearly had motivation problems. alabama will have no such problems this year. their d will be fired up for this challenge. brodie croyle will hit a couple passes early to loosen up the tech run defense. alabama wins... let's call it 17-13.

outback bowl
iowa (+1.5) 2 units. iowa finished the year strongly with wins over wisconsin and minnesota. florida got their big win to end the season, beating a lethargic florida state team. i always question the motivation of the florida teams in bowl games if they're not playing for the national championship. especially when the game is in their home state, and they finished the year with a win over a big rival. iowa always plays hard for ferentz. this should be a close, hard fought game. let's call it... iowa 20-17.

 

[Smitty]

Gator Bowl
louisville (+8) 1 unit. i've been leaning va tech, but i was gonna flip flop to louisville and the weather forecast clinched it. "thunderstorms during the morning becoming more widespread and strong this afternoon. Storms may produce large hail and strong winds. High 76F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70%."

louisville's gameplan already had to feature a lot of michael bush, with the loss of brian brohm. they may give him the ball every play now.

seriously though, this game could go either way. if virginia tech has recovered from the embarrassment against fsu, and their d comes to play, they could easily cover this spread. and some guys i respect on this site are on va tech. which is why this is only for 1 unit.

 

[Kodiak9er]

Gl, Smit. Hope you finish strong. Still wavering that VT/Lou game myself.

 

[Smitty]

Capital One Bowl

Capital One Bowl

auburn (-10.5) 3 units. 2 years ago, auburn beat wisky in the music city bowl 28-14 as a 3-point fav. i don't think this wisconsin team is as good as that year's team, and i think auburn may be better than they were that year. ok, that's some crappy logic to pick this game. let's start over...

away from home this year (one of my favorite #'s to look at for bowl games), auburn was 3-0-1 ATS. wisky was 3-3. the road games they covered? at north carolina, minnesota, and hawaii. nobody in auburn's class.

i know, i know... wisky will be fired up for alvarez's last game as coach. yeah, that logic worked for their last home game (against iowa), didn't it?

i expect auburn's d to step up and shut down wisconsin's offense and slowly grind out a convincing win.

 

[Sportz333]

GATOR UNDER GUYS! This puppy is climbing as I see 56 at two of my outlets. I am going UNDER the total for what I think to be a strong play. Run, Run, Run, as does the Clock, Clock, Clock.

Good Luck!

 

[Smitty]

Fiesta Bowl

Fiesta Bowl

thank you, kodiak. speaking of finishing strong... here's the one you've all been waiting for. well, all 35 of you who have read this far.

ohio state (-5) 5 units. it would have been 6 (more than i've ever put on a game) if bobby carpenter was healthy. i love ohio state's defense in this game. notre dame is so overrated, it's not even funny. what is their biggest win? at michigan? well, we've seen how good michigan is this year. seriously, here is nd's schedule:

@ pitt 42-21
@ michigan 17-10
mich. st 41-44
@ wash 36-17
@ purdue 49-28
usc 31-34
byu 49-23
tenn 41-21
navy 42-21
syracuse 34-10
@ stanford 38-31

they've been away from the golden dome once since 10/1, and we saw how good they looked against that powerhouse stanford team.

now don't get me wrong. as you can probably guess from my avatar, i strongly dislike ohio state. their offense was... mediocre this year. their running game is lousy. troy smith? please. this play is based mostly on the following factors:

as i've stated, notre dame is, as usual, very overrated.

the line. #4 vs #5 on a neutral field. and the spread is more than 3? and notre dame is the dog? the linesmakers aren't stupid. they know people love to bet on notre dame. and this line wants them to do it.

how many bowl games in a row has nd lost? something like 8? holy cow.

oh, and one more factor i almost forgot... as good a coach as charlie weis is (no doubt he has done a TREMENDOUS job this year), he will not out-coach jim tressel. both teams will be well-prepared, so i'll call that a wash.

 

[Smitty]

sportz, i think that's probably a solid play. i have to believe louisville's offense will be very conservative today.

 

[Smitty]

Sugar Bowl

Sugar Bowl

well, good start for 'bama, not so good for iowa.

alrighty, on to the last game of the day.

georgia (-6.5) 3 units. i think we're gonna see further proof that the big east does not deserve a team in the bcs. last year pitt was exposed by utah. utah? excellent team last year, but they DESTROYED pitt. now west virginia goes into the dome to take on a solid georgia team. the only team of this caliber that wv played this year was virginia tech, and tech handled them easily, 34-17. i expect more of the same here. georgia will be able to load up to stop the running game. if they can force pat white to throw the ball, wv is in trouble.

probably my biggest concern in this game is georgia's motivation level. i generally don't like teams that stay home for bowl games. i think it takes away some of the excitement. obviously i am hoping this game will be the exception to the rule, because they will need to play with intensity to stop this wv rushing attack. any chance david pollack has some eligibility left?

one more concern... i've never been a fan of dj shockley. he's going to need to be solid with the ball and not turn it over. if he does that, georgia should win convincingly.

 

[Smitty]

early recap...

well, iowa didn't give up, but the blocked punt to start the game really hurt, and then, just as they were regaining momentum, the pick-6 killed them.

i feel i was definitely on the "right" side with alabama. but, based on my usual luck, there is no way they will cover now. i also put a few units on the under, so most likely the game will go to 7 overtimes, with a final of 41-35. :cursin:

so far, obviously i'm glad i switched to louisville. they played a great first half. now, can they sustain it for 30 more minutes?

i tip my hat to wisconsin. i really didn't think they had this kind of effort in them. they certainly proved me wrong. those bastards.

 

[DerekNJND]

they've been away from the golden dome once since 10/1, and we saw how good they looked against that powerhouse stanford team.

I have no play on the game today, so far, so I wish you luck, but dont give ND crap as an away team because of stanford.

The single thing that has MADE ND A NATIONAL CONTENDER this year is their UNDEFEATED ROAD RECORD!!! 5-0 baby! Because they "barely" beat a team they were supposed to crush, all of a sudden they arent a good road team? BS man, cmon.

They have outscored opponents by 65 points in 5 road contests this year, and are undefeated. If anyone's road play should be questioned, it is OSU.

 

[Smitty]

HOLY COW, THE GAMBLING GODS ARE SMILING ON SMITTY!!! THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT... THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT...

i mean, THE TIDE WIN THE COTTON... THE TIDE WIN THE COTTON.

i can't believe that kick made it in. HALLELUJAH. :clap:

 

[Smitty]

derek, i understand what you're saying. i also understand that you are... just a little biased. personally, i strongly dislike both teams, so i am looking at this game a little more impartially. notre dame had a very good year. weis has done a great job. but i have felt all year that they are very overrated. if they weren't "notre dame", based on their results this year, no way would they have even been in the discussion to be a bcs team. clearly, oregon was better this year. both teams lost at home to usc. oregon didn't lose any other games (until the bowl game, of course). notre dame lost to michigan state. at home. ohio state only had 2 losses this year as well. to the #2 & #3 teams in the country, by 3 points and by 7. they had no problem beating michigan state.

all that said, who the heck knows what will happen later this afternoon? maybe nd will return a blocked punt for a td and return an INT for a td. i've seen it happen.

as a notre dame fan, i fully expected your argument. just as i feel there is no way florida state will stay close to penn state tomorrow.

 

[DerekNJND]

derek, i understand what you're saying. i also understand that you are... just a little biased. personally, i strongly dislike both teams, so i am looking at this game a little more impartially. notre dame had a very good year. weis has done a great job. but i have felt all year that they are very overrated. if they weren't "notre dame", based on their results this year, no way would they have even been in the discussion to be a bcs team. clearly, oregon was better this year. both teams lost at home to usc. oregon didn't lose any other games (until the bowl game, of course). notre dame lost to michigan state. at home. ohio state only had 2 losses this year as well. to the #2 & #3 teams in the country, by 3 points and by 7. they had no problem beating michigan state.

all that said, who the heck knows what will happen later this afternoon? maybe nd will return a blocked punt for a td and return an INT for a td. i've seen it happen.

as a notre dame fan, i fully expected your argument. just as i feel there is no way florida state will stay close to penn state tomorrow.

I agree on PSU tomorrow night, but even OBJECTIVELY, theres no way you can criticize ND's road play. No way. I am alum you are right, but 5-0 is 5-0

 

[DerekNJND]

ND may be a little overrated. We will certainly know by the end of the day, thats for sure.

But this team paid its dues on the road, opening with some tough road games early on.

Given Oregon's bowl play and resume beforehand, I dont know how you could question the decision to take ND over Oregon. I thought for SURE we had heard the last of that argument....

 

[Smitty]

I agree on PSU tomorrow night, but even OBJECTIVELY, theres no way you can criticize ND's road play. No way.

ah, but that is the beauty of free speech. i can, and i did. just bustin' your balls.

you are absolutely right. 5-0 on the road is always difficult. my point was, they have only played one road game in almost 100 days, and they did not look good. remember... stanford lost at home to UC davis this year. UC DAVIS!! what are they? 1AA? D2? stanford was not a good football team. ohio state finished the year very strongly, including beating bad teams on the road. convincingly.

i just feel that a) notre dame has not seen a defense of this caliber all year. although the loss of carpenter really concerns me. and b) the line was looking for notre dame money (like vegas has any trouble get nd money). that makes me feel that ohio state is the play. and i'm making my largest ever play on a football game based on that. we'll know in about 4 hours if that was a stupid decision or not.

 

[Smitty]

Given Oregon's bowl play and resume beforehand, I dont know how you could question the decision to take ND over Oregon. I thought for SURE we had heard the last of that argument....

not until we see ND's bowl play.

 

[DerekNJND]

ah, but that is the beauty of free speech. i can, and i did. just bustin' your balls.

you are absolutely right. 5-0 on the road is always difficult. my point was, they have only played one road game in almost 100 days, and they did not look good. remember... stanford lost at home to UC davis this year. UC DAVIS!! what are they? 1AA? D2? stanford was not a good football team. ohio state finished the year very strongly, including beating bad teams on the road. convincingly.

i just feel that a) notre dame has not seen a defense of this caliber all year. although the loss of carpenter really concerns me. and b) the line was looking for notre dame money (like vegas has any trouble get nd money). that makes me feel that ohio state is the play. and i'm making my largest ever play on a football game based on that. we'll know in about 4 hours if that was a stupid decision or not.

Like I said a no play for me, so good luck man

 

[Smitty]

Like I said a no play for me, so good luck man

thank you, sir, i appreciate that. i just hope i didn't use up all my luck today when alabama's kick somehow made it through the uprights.

happy new year to you.

 

[Smitty]

so far, obviously i'm glad i switched to louisville. they played a great first half. now, can they sustain it for 30 more minutes?

hmm... suddenly, 8 points doesn't look like enough. :scared

 

[Smitty]

phew, i can finally exhale. ohio state pretty much dominated the game, but they continually let nd hang around. fortunately, i won enough cash on this game to cover the treatment for the ulcer it caused.