can somebody explain this for me.....

[mcity]

Check out these odds at Pinny for the margin of victory in tonight's game and look at the 2 "favorites"

Wed 1/4 Margin Of Victory
05:00 PM 2841 Texas to win by 1 to 2 pts +2300
2842 Texas to win by exactly 3 pts +1675
2843 Texas to win by 4 to 6 pts +1640
2844 Texas to win by >6? pts +395
2845 USC to win by 1 to 2 pts +1900
2846 USC to win by exactly 3 pts +1150
2847 USC to win by 4 to 6 pts +1150
2848 USC to win by exactly 7 pts +1350
2849 USC to win by 8 to 10 pts +1150
2850 USC to win by 11 to 13 pts +1260
2851 USC to win by 14 to 17 pts +1010
2852 USC to win by >17? pts +253


can someone explain to me why USC winning by 17.5 is getting the least amount of return on your money? Texas winning by 6.5 or more is the second least return on your money.....guess the spread doesn't matter tonight? If you like texas take the ML and if you like USC expect a blow-out.....somebody help me out here.....am I looking at this wrong?

 

[DerekNJND]

I can. The payout stinks because as opposed to the other scores, which are only a range of 1-3 points, 17.5 + takes into account a larger range

A win of 17.5 PLUS means any USC win from 18-100, in theory. Much more "wiggle" room there than needing a team to win by a very narrow range of 4-6, or 7-10. HTH

Notice the 2 longshots are only a range of 2 points. Some by an EXACT score too. With Texas winning by 6.5 PLUS, this covers any win from 7 through INFINITY, which is a much broader range than say exactly by 7 points, REGARDLESS of the relative likelihood of EITHER team winning!

 

[badjab]

you're getting the least amount of return for the > props because all the other numbers require you to be within 1-2 points of the number. Picking USC by more than 17.5 means any number over 18 will be a winner. Not to easy to pick them to win by exactly 3, 7, or 14 points

 

[mcity]

I understand that.....I guess I was just looking into it too deep. I was talking more about whether you can take any "leans" from those odds meaning do you think they are showing us something.....I would've thought that USC by more than 17.5 should have a little bigger payout....thought maybe this was showing something as in regards to what pinny thought might happen tonight....thinking maybe USC blows Texas out. Thanks for the replys.

 

[DerekNJND]

I understand that.....I guess I was just looking into it too deep. I was talking more about whether you can take any "leans" from those odds meaning do you think they are showing us something.....I would've thought that USC by more than 17.5 should have a little bigger payout....thought maybe this was showing something as in regards to what pinny thought might happen tonight....thinking maybe USC blows Texas out. Thanks for the replys.

Yeah I see what you mean.. From that angle, its strange that Texas would be such a longshot to win by 1-2 or exactly 3 points! You figure if the other team is favored, then the dog's BEST SHOT AT WINNING would be a low number, right?

On that theory, though, then it looks like the Books think theres a better chance of Texas winning by 7 than USC winning by 2. That is OBVIOUSLY not true or the ML wouldnt be -250 for USC!

I wouldnt over analyze it man!

 

[mcity]

I hear ya derek.....thanks for the reply. Good luck tonight.