Some rambling Wildcard thoughts...

[MrChristo]

Tough week imo.

Washington @ Tampa....2 months ago this game went 35-36!!...Why is the total ~37 for this one??
What was interesting in that game was that Washington out-rushed TB big-time despite TB allowing just 3.5 ypc over the season (2nd best). Can they do it again?
Really, you'd have to say that both teams are limping in...Washington had a very lucky win on the weekend....4-4 on the road, but wins @ Philli, Zona, St. L., and Dallas in wk. 2, don't fill me with much confidence.

TB had a lucky escape over NO on the weekend, scraped by Atl at home...and you'd have to say that their only 'good' win in their last10 weeks was @ Carolina.

Couldn't pick a side....don't like the total.

NE will win, but can they cover more than a TD?
I don't think Jax has the passing capabilities to hurt NE's suspect secondary. Pats run D continues to be solid (3.6 ypr) which should be able to contain the Jags.
But, having said that, you have to hand it to Jax...6-2 on the road, av. 23.3 ppg, inc. a 23-17 win @ Pittsburgh.
Gerrard 5-1...only loss to Indi
Maybe the over, but weather could be a factor.....tease NE-2 to over 31?

NYG -2.5?? How fishy is this?? An 8-1 team at home laying less than a FG? I don't like it one little bit.
NYG limping in personel-wise, with their entire starting LB corp out...& Shockey ??
Carolina can't run the ball, which makes them totally inconsistant...in fact if you look at their schedule most (if not all) of their wins have come against teams that either can't stop the run (Atl, NO, Buff) or who couldn't run it themselves (Jets, Det, Zona, GB, NE)...and throw in a win against Minni who were in turmoil at the time.
Giants allow 3.9 and gain 4.7 ypc!!
NYG's only home loss was 21-24 to Minni, who's 3 TD's ALL came from special teams.
But, as I said, injuries in the Washington game have left the NYG defense under-manned, and they've allowed 35 to Washington and 21 to Oakland (which should have been 28, but Oak couldn't get 1 yard in 4 tries...Collins threw for 331 yards with 3 TD's)

There should be some scoring both ways...and maybe the 43.5 is a decent sign for the over.


I think Pittsburgh is the right play, but not sure I taking them as a road fav is a great idea. (Although it probably is!)
But, it is a Steeler game, and in every game they have played this season the team who controls the ground game has won. In ALL of their 11 wins they have out-rushed their opponents...in the 5 losses they haven't! Simple as that.
Cinci won the last meeting 38-31 @ Pits...Gained 102 yards on te ground to 95...BUT, it was Rothlesberger's second game back from knee surgery, and he threw 3 INT's...one on his own 22 (Cinci TD on the 22 yard drive)...one on the Cinci 44 (Cinci punt)..and one at half way, which Cinci turned into a TD...
...Cinci also got a cheap TD from a 94 yard KO return.

Pittsburgh were never able to control the game, and Big Ben threw it 41 times...his highest previous was 28!!!
I can't see them getting into that kind of game again.

Pitssburgh won the first meeting @ Cinci 27-13....Ben threw the ball just 14 times! They ran 43 times for 226 yards and held Cinci to 91.

With my arm twisted I would be taking the Giants -2.5 & over 43.5, Pits -3 and the NE/Jax over 37...but need some more time and think music!

Good Luck to everyone this weekend.

 

[bombercoops]

C, looking the same way mate. Have already taken Pitt and the giants, and will be teasing the pats into something. Not comfortable with giving up more than a TD but -2 looks more than appealing. Been a while since I've seen you around the traps mate, has all your flying education been taking off? (no pun intended).

 

[baby johnson]

thnaks mc, like pit, car, ne and wash,,will play your totals though

thanks for the help

 

[GM]

Good stuff MrC. Always enjoy the writeups.

Personally, I like a side in every game this weekend, I think. And that's pretty unusual for me. I will go with Tampa at home. Wash has been hot of late, but I think the Bucs are the right side. I don't think we'll see a duplication of the 36-35 game. Both teams will study that game hard, and as a result I think we'll see a very different sort of result...lower scoring (though probably still Over 37).

Reading your write-up it really does sound like you like NYG but the line just has you spooked. Giants are a much different team home than away. Carolina is VERY hot and cold....put up some great games... & put up some real stinkers too. Looking at the Panthers' schedule...it's been a LONG time since they've played anybody with a good offence. NYG will be the best O they have faced all season. I'll happily spot the 2? here and take NYG. The Over is also definitely worth a look.

I'm going against most of the board here it seems, but I will be on Cinci, I am pretty sure. I feel this line is a total over-reaction to the results of just the past 2 weeks. Pitt absolutely murdered a weak Cleveland team, then actually struggled @ home against an equally weak Detroit team, scrambling just to get into the playoffs. But they did put up 76 pts in the process and that has everyone all excited. Cinci meanwhile has clearly been in cruise control from the minute they clinched the division. I think it will be a tight game. But I really can't say I like the road favorite here. A lot of people are saying Cinci has achieved far more than they ever expected to and they are in collapse mode now, but I am really not so sure about that.

And I really like taking the points with Jax. I know, Florida team in the cold...Pats team peaking at the right time. This Jax club is tough though. 12-4 with 2 of those 4 losses coming to Indy. This is a lot of pts to be laying. I do think NE probably wins, but would not be overly surprised to see the Jags shock the world and win outright. I just can't lay over a TD here.

Good luck!

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks guys....

...really don't think I can take NYG....their defense (lack of it!) just scares me too much.
I'm over the line being an issue tho...am seeing a very even 50/50 split at a couple of concensus sites, so I don't think it's the 'sucker' line I originally thought.
There's a couple of nice trends in AR's thread too that suggest playing against Carolina....
....I know I'm going to end up playing it!

I do, however, like a couple of player props...

Dillon under 85.5 yards

Only twice has he gone over this number all season, again to 2 crappy defensive teams.
22-102 @ Buff (allow 137.8 @ 4.5)
23-106 @ Atl (allow 128.9 @ 4.7!)

He averages just 66.6 ypg...58.3 without the 2 biggies.

Jax have allowed an 85+ rusher in 6 games of 15...
Wells (21-86...Houst av. 113.5 @ 4.2 per game)
James (27-128 & 30-93...Indi av. 106.4 @ 3.9)
Droughns (30-88 & Anderson 23-115...Denver av. 158.7 @ 4.7!!)
Jackson (25-179!...S.L. av. 95.9 @ 4.0...but indoors)

Even then, it's only 3 rushers over 93 yards.

NE gain 94.5 ypg @ just 3.4 per carry.

Santana Moss under 90.5 receiving yards

I can only think this figure is based on his average for the years or something?...He did start in a blaze of glory with 4 100+ yard games in the first 6 weeks (after which time I think Washington had the number 1 ranked offense in the NFL), but since then he has had just 1 game over 90 yards, that being against a beat up NYG defense.
After wk 6 teams finally realised that he was pretty much Washington's only deep threat, so he has been double teamed and bumped off the line to keep him in check and stop the big plays.

Tampa Bay have allowed just 2 receivers to gain more than this at home all season. Steve Smith, who just about unstoppable these days! (5-106), and Welker (who?!) for Maimi, who had 3 catches for 97 yards. (I think we can safely assume that he slipped under the radar! Given he av. just 2.2 catches/game and hasn't gone over 40 yards any other time.)

Moss caught 4 balls for 79 yards in the teams meeting earlier in the season in the 35-36 game, so given that this one would figure to be a lot lower scoring 91 yards seems a bit too many to expect.

Good luck with the Jags GM :thumb: