round 1 plays & info...

[AR182]

just read this in a newsletter & thought some might find it interesting.....


in the playoffs, game winners are 211-32-8 ats since 1980 & home teams are 134-97-6 ats.so have a good reason to play a road team, & if you don't think your selection can win...you shouldn't make the play...

wild card round teams who enter the playoffs on the road & were home the week before & on the road the week before that are 9-22 su with a 4-9 ats in the last 13. of those 31 teams, 25 came in off a win. only 6 of them won the playoff game...

both jax. & pitts. apply to the above....


if a wildcard round team enters the playoffs off a game in which it covered the spread by 10 or more points, that team is 11-29 su & 12-27-1 ats in that first playoff game....

jax. & carolina are 2 teams that apply to the above..

if that team was on the road in it's last game, it is 2-10 su & 3-9 ats...carolina applies to this trend...


wild card teams who enter the playoffs at home after losing to a non-division team are 24-5 su & 23-6 ats....cincinnati applies to this trend......
there were 13 teams in that 29 game set who were playing an opponent who had won it's previous game by 7 or more. those teams were 12-1 su/ats...cin.fits this trend.....


wild card round teams who enter the playoffs on the road off a road win are 0-14 su since 1991 & 1-11 ats since 1994......carolina & wash. apply to this trend.....

good luck.

 

[Dizzayton]

Thanks for the info. I am starting to lean towards Cincy based on trends alone. But doesn't Cincy's poor defensive stats this season scare the shit out of you. I remember taking KC +3 or maybe they were -3 at home agains the Colts a few years ago. I thought there was no way they would lose at Arrowhead. Then I saw their defense and we all saw what happened. Cincy's defense ?????? Not good at all.

 

[Juu3]

nice write up, and a whole lot of good information! Your makin me feel much better about a few of these plays but I'm definitely playing Pittsburgh no matter what.

 

[AR182]

i haven't made any decisions yet on who i like....but i agree..how can cin. shut down pitts. running attack....

 

[AR182]

here is something that i read on another forum....


WHEN THE LINE OF AN NFL PLAYOFF GAME IS UNDER 3 THE UNDER HAS NOT LOST SINCE 1993!!! 10-0-1, AND IS 17-3-1 SINCE 1983!!!

Spreads of games that are either 7 or 7.5 have gone over 23 of 34 times! Spreads of 7 or more: 50-37 OVER since 1983

Lines over 50 in playoffs have been breakeven no advantage

 

[Superbear]

PLAY ON A TEAM IN ITS 1st PLAYOFF GAME WHEN IT HAS NOT BEEN IN THE PLAYOFFS FOR 3 OR MORE YEARS
22-5-1 (1989-2002) 81%

PLAY AGAINST ANY TEAM THAT WON THE PREVIOUS WEEK BUT ALLOWED 21 OR MORE POINTS
15-2-1 88% (1995-2002)

 

[Dice34]

why does it stop at 2002? what are the 03 and 04 numbers with that?

 

[AR182]

dice...

i saw what superbear posted on another forum also....it seems that the records weren't updated after 2002....

 

[Dice34]

ok thanks

 

[thom24ad]

Good info man!

 

[AR182]

some more info i gathered by surfing the net....


WASH vs TAMPA

Teams playing their first playoff game in at least 4 years are 37-15 ATS. WASH.

Teams that end the regular season with 4 or more consecutive wins are 27-8 straight up in their first playoff game (when not playing another team also off 4 or more wins) and those streaking teams are 5-1 ATS as underdogs and picks.WASH.


JAX vs. NE

Teams playing their first playoff game in at least 4 years are 37-15 ATS.JAX

Playoff underdogs with a better win-loss record are 20-5-1 ATS since 1980.JAX.

NE is 9-0 straight up in playoffs but 0-3 ats as a favorite of more than 3 points & have only won by more than 7 in 3 of the 9 games.


CAR vs NYG

the Panthers are 15-2-1 ATS as an underdog the last 3 seasons (including 3-0 ATS in the post-season two years ago).


CINCY vs PITT

Playoff home teams that are coming off a loss in their regular season finale are 35-15-1 ATS and home teams that lost at least 2 of their final 3 games are 24-9 ATS.

Home underdogs are 18-7 ATS in all playoff games since 1976 and 8-1 ATS in the Wild Card round.

Teams playing their first playoff game in at least 4 years are 37-15 ATS

 

[AR182]

regular season record....64-47....+15.10*
teasers.....23-14

last year i had a losing regular nfl season but went 5-0 in the playoffs.....hope to repeat that this year....


3*teaser....

n.e.-1/2
cin.+10.5....

n.e.....

i know alot of good cappers are on jax., but i don't see it.....although n.e. is not as good as past years, i think they're primed to make a serious run at a 3peat.....jax. is starting a qb who has been out for about 5-6 weeks & is making his comeback attempt in the cold weather of mass. on saturday night.....don't see him being very effective & with n.e. front 7 playing very well, i think they will force a rusty leftwich to throw the ball...the only thing stopping me from taking n.e. by itself is the tall wide receivers for jax. going against a short ne secondary....

a couple of angles supporting the n.e. play......

since 1983 the home team is 56-23 ats (70.8%) in it's first playoff game if their pass attack gained more yds./ attempt during the regular season than the road team"s air game....

since 1983 a home team in the playoffs who lost their most recent home game (n.e.) has gone 22-6 ats (78.5%)....

when the above 2 playoff angles come together the ats record is 15-3 (83%)....

cin.....

in addition to what i already posted about this game....we have a 6th seed (pitts.) favored over a 5 seed (cin.).....i got the following info from another site...


since '93, only two 6th seeds have been favored in the playoffs, both lost straight up

since '93, there have been six 6th seeds that have garnered the public's attention...i.e. the public has moved the line towards that team: all have lost straight up and the ats mark is just 1-5.

6th seeds in the playoffs since '93 have been outscored by an average of 28.5-18.1 in 34 games.

in playoff games with totals of 40 or higher, 6th seeds are just 4-16 SU & 5-15 ats.

6th seeds fortunate enough to advance past the wildcard round are 0-8 su & 2-6 ats in the divisional round, outscored by an average margin of 34.8-14.4.

i thought that i would list the above info eventhoug some of the info doesn't pertain to sunday's game.......

good luck.

 

[kcwolf]

Great stuff as usual AR. I would hate to buck heads with ya. JAX is becoming a popular play by the line movement, which I don't like. Will have to see tomorrow.

 

[Irish]

AR hats off to another great bit of information, best of luck through out the playoffs!

Cheers
Irish

 

[thom24ad]

GOOD LUCK TO YOU AR182

 

[trolln4walii]

Thanks as always for sharing your info. Hope those trends ring true this weekend. Wishing you continued success throughout

 

[Blackman]

Amazing stat about the unders hitting at an incredible rate, going to have to take a deep look at that now.

Best of luck.

 

[bassmaster007]

thanks for the valuable stats ar182 i wish you the best

 

[ripken8]

good stuff ar,

liking the under in tb-wash myself. good luck and thanks...

 

[Buck i]

Great Stuff AR, not looking good for my Steelers.