plays & info for round 2...

[AR182]

went 1-1 last week....

annoyed at myself because i didn't bet n.e by itself.....thought that was the best bet last week...instead played ne. in 2 teasers..hit one but lost the cin. part of the teaser...thought that getting 10.5 in the teaser with cin. was a great situation.....but unfortunately we all know what happened........

here is something that i got from another site...thought that some might this interesting....


The Divisional Playoff round of the NFL postseason has produced the most lopsided scores as the teams that have earned the right to rest through the Wildcard round have owned their visiting foes. In fact, the average margin of victory in this round has been over 15 PPG.

The home team has been most dominant in winning games in the Divisional Playoff round, with a SU record of 41-11. Its ATS mark of 28-22 (56%) slightly trails the Wildcard Round though.

Discounting the rare four road covers of the 2004 Divisional Playoff Weekend, Home teams are a stellar 21-3 SU & 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in this round

Favorites in the Divisional Round own an ATS mark of 26-21 (55.3%) since ?93.

Favorites of more than a TD are 20-3 SU & 15-7-1 ATS (68.1%) in the Divisional Round since ?93!

There has been only one home underdog in the last 13 years of Divisional Round play, and that was in ?97 when host Carolina upended Dallas 26-17 as a 3-point dog.

The last six times that a 6th seed has advanced to the Divisional round, it has been blown out. The average score of these games was 39-14, and the home team was 6-0 SU & ATS.

good luck.

 

[bombercoops]

Have two open teasers to go with the pats last weekend and have added seattle to one of them. As always, like your stats AR and hoping the trend continues on the weekend.

 

[Dice34]

Heard something on the Dan Patrick show today pertaining to last years playoffs, where it appears again. Something to the tune of all the teams meeting again and the team that won in the reg. season won the 2nd time also. If this scenario holds true to form, the winners would be Indy, Denver, Chicago and Washington.......thought that was interesting.....correct me if that is wrong

 

[MrChristo]

Heard something on the Dan Patrick show today pertaining to last years playoffs, where it appears again. Something to the tune of all the teams meeting again and the team that won in the reg. season won the 2nd time also. If this scenario holds true to form, the winners would be Indy, Denver, Chicago and Washington.......thought that was interesting.....correct me if that is wrong

I believe that is true, Dice.

I found this... had it stashed away 'finding' it last year (someone else's work)

1) Teams with Conference revenge in the Semi's are 1-13 SU. [Indi, Chicago & Denver all have beaten their upcoming opposition once this season]

2) If teams lose by anything but 3 points in the Wildcard game they were 0-8 straight up and ats losing by an average score of 31.3 to 10.7. **

Last season: New England beat Indi 20-3;
Atlanta 47-17 St. Louis,
Phili 27-13 Minni.... AVERAGE SCORE between the three games=31.3 to 11!!

[That obviously applies to all the winning teams this season...could be a big day for the home favs.]

** Teams that win by exactly 3 in the Wildcard game are 5-0 ats!...(although I don't know how long thatgoes back)

Personally the game that stands out to me is Denver/NE under 43.5...but that's another story!

 

[Clem D]

Thanks for posting this.

 

[Tam]

Question

Question

<<

Discounting the rare four road covers of the 2004 Divisional Playoff Weekend, Home teams are a stellar 21-3 SU & 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in this round

>>



Are you saying all 4 roads covered last year divs playoffs ? Please verify cause I do remember 3 Homes covered last year, only 1 Loss was Pitts, won SU in overtime but lost ATS.

 

[Dizzayton]

2 years ago all four road teams covered. Would not be shocked to see it again this year. AFC is incredibly tough competition 1-6, and NFC top 2 seeds are the weakest I can remember, so that is why I say the underdogs will do excellent.

 

[thom24ad]

the underdogs will do excellent.

just like this season
:clap:
lay the chalk with Indy, Denver, and Seattle

 

[AR182]

here are some angles for this weekend's games that i got from newsletters.....


play against any nfl team in their 1st game of the playoffs that has held it's last 2 opponents to a cumulative total of less than 21 points....

since 1980 ats record is 29-8 (78.3%)

play against denver.....



play any home playoff team off a su loss....

since 1980 ats record is 36-14-1 (72%)

play seattle & chicago....


play on any nfl playoff dog with revenge off b2b su wins if the last win was as a playoff favorite.....

ats record is 26-12-1 (68.4%) since 1980....

play on pitts.....


play against any team in the semi- final round that beat a division opponent last week in the wild card round......

1990-2004 ats record is 13-4 (76%)....

play against pitts.....



good luck.

 

[pghpounder]

Heard something on the Dan Patrick show today pertaining to last years playoffs, where it appears again. Something to the tune of all the teams meeting again and the team that won in the reg. season won the 2nd time also. If this scenario holds true to form, the winners would be Indy, Denver, Chicago and Washington.......thought that was interesting.....correct me if that is wrong

Unless Im reading this wrong this isnt true. The Steelers beat New England last year in the reg. season but lost in the AFC Championship game.

 

[AR182]

10*seattle-9.....

i have been reading & hearing all week about seattle's weak schedule.....all i can say is that the seahawks didn't choose who they played this year...they played who was on their schedule....

however, if you look at the earlier previous meeting between wash. & seattle (week #3) that was played at wash.& won in ot by wash.....seattle outgained wash. by an average of 5.7 yds. per play to 4.6 yppl.....& that was with wash. being in a favorable situation....

the situation on saturday favors seattle by a wide margin:

wash.was in a very hard fought revenge game last week vs. tb, in which a few of the wash. players were hurt.....they lost one of their defensive lineman with a broken hand, their top runner, portis didn't play as much as normal (injured shoulder), & one of their top corners, springs, didn't play as much as usual also, because of a groin injury...they also will be missing one of their offensive linemen, who was out of the tampa game....

wash.'s qb, brunell has had less than 200 yds. passing in 8 consecutive games.....in his last 3 games, he has completed only 23 passes combined....i may be wrong but i think brunell is hurt more than the skins will admit...he has a leg injury that effects his scrambling & planting his leg to throw.....

we all know about seattle's offense....it's well balanced & they have a very good offensive line that has allowed only 27 sacks for the year....

seattle's defense is about average,but they rank #7 in points allowed, they permitted 3.6 yds. per rush this year & do very well putting pressure on the qb....& they held wash. to 20 points earlier this year in their ot loss.

despite wash.'s 6 game winning streak, they have been outgained in 7 of their last 11 games...

here are some angles supporting this play....

since 1980, rested home teams in the playoffs are 74-22 su & 55-38-3 ats (58%), including 22-7 ats (75.8%) when playing off a loss (seattle)...

teams that win a playoff game as a dog (wash.) are 20-38 ats (34%) on the road the next game...

post season road teams (wash.) playing off b2b road wins are 2-14 su & 5-11 ats ( 31%).....

i may be wrong but i think fatigue & injuries will finally catch up to wash. on saturday & will lose convincingly to seattle....a well coached, very potent, & well experienced team.....31-13...

good luck.

 

[Dice34]

Unless Im reading this wrong this isnt true. The Steelers beat New England last year in the reg. season but lost in the AFC Championship game.

You're reading it wrong, its the Divisional Round not the AFC championship game.........actually you're not reading it wrong but it was meant for the divisional round playoffs, i just forgot to include that

 

[AR182]

here is additional info i got from a newsletter:

the 2 best spots for bye teams are when they are playing an opponent who is off a su win as a dog (26-12 ats...68% with seattle & chicago fitting that role this week).....

& when they are coming off a su or ats loss (33-12 ats...73% with all but denver filling the spots this week).

there is also an underlying trap (17-24 ats....41%) for bye teams who come into this game off a double digit win...this applies to denver.

 

[tulah]

10*seattle-9.....

i may be wrong but i think fatigue & injuries will finally catch up to wash. on saturday & will lose convincingly to seattle....a well coached, very potent, & well experienced team.....31-13...

good luck.

When you say EXPERIENCE what do you mean.

I thought Holmgren was something like winless without farve in the post season

 

[AR182]

tulah...

i meant to say that seattle, eventhough they lost the last 2 years, has playoff experience....

 

[AR182]

continuation from post #13.....


road teams who are off a su dog win in any round of the playoffs are 18-62 su & 29-50 ats (36.7%)....those teams are wash. & carolina

if they won their previous game as a dog & are now a dog of more than +6 points, they are 15-29 ats (34%)...this applies to wash....

if they won their previous game as a dog & are now playing an opponent off a su loss, they are 4-13 ats (23.5%)...this applies to wash. & carolina...

good luck.

 

[wareagle]

great stuff as always AR...ran across this as well...fwiw i love seattle as well

Washington is 8-0 ats when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. Washington is 6-0 ats vs NFC West opponents over the last 3 seasons. Washington is 6-0 ats after 2 or more consecutive wins. Washington is 2-0 ats vs Seattle over the last 3 years. 2 of the 2 games have gone over the total in the last 3 years. The last three years in divisional playoffs in the NFC has the winning team winning by 15 points and the total of 43 points.

 

[boilermaker]

AR, got the letter and check in the mail. Just wanted to say thank you. Wish you would have taken the vouchers for your trouble. Maybe someday we can meet up and I can at least buy you a drink or two. You are a quality person just as you are a quality handicapper. Thanks again and hope someday I can repay the favor. Good Luck this weeknd on your plays.

 

[AR182]

thanks guys..appreciate it..

bm...

was the amount correct ?

adding these 2* teasers....

seattle-2
indy-2.5


seattle-p
indy-p
o 20 car/chi


good luck.

 

[trolln4walii]

Best of luck in Round #2 AR. Enjoy all the info you always share. Played that Seattle/Indy teaser myself before the lines went up. Hate bucking that home team trend but the Skins and Steelers getting a full 10 is too much for me to play against.