Two picks for Divisional playoffs...

[Glenn Quagmire]

NFL YTD (23-15-1)

I jumped on these two on Sunday but haven't had time to post. These are the two I like the most... so far...

Chi/Carolina (Under 30.5) I know that's a low number but I just can't see many points being scored in this game. I wouldn't be surprised if the total didn't crack 20, and I think the high end for the game would be about 27. It should be a low-scoring, defensive struggle for both sides. These are the #2 and #3 total defenses in the NFL. I think both defenses feel like they will need to play a near flawless game in order for their team to win, so I expect both offenses to be in for a long day. Now throw in the fact that neither offense is great, with the Bears offense being downright bad, and you have yourself a recipe for an under. The only concern I have is turnovers. Grossman is a young QB and Delhomme is not a guy I trust, especially on the road. However, I think both offenses will try to establish the run, especially the Bears. That will lead to some major clock chewing. I think this game will finish in the neighborhood of 13-10.

Indy (-9.5) A few weeks ago people were talking about Indy being one of the best teams ever. A couple of losses later and it seems that a lot of people have forgotten about them. Well, they're still the best team in the NFL in my book. There is absolutely no reason Indy shouldn't throttle Pitt. These two teams aren't even close in talent. I had Pitt over Cincy last week and I saw some GAPING weaknesses in that defense. If Jon frigging Kitna can carve up your secondary like a Thanksgiving turkey, what will Peyton Manning do? The only chance Pittsburgh has is to get pressure on Manning and I don't see that happening. Indy has a great O-line and they protect Manning very well. He's going to have all day to make his reads and pick Pittsburgh apart. If he wanted to he could probably throw for 400 yards next week. Oh, and they also have a pretty good RB too. I don't think he will have a huge game running-wise, but I do think he will be an effective weapon catching the ball on the underneath routes.

Pitt has a pretty good offense but the key to their success is running the ball. I don't see them going crazy against Indy because Indy not only has the personnel to stop them, but I think that will be their gameplan going in. I expect Indy to blitz quite a bit and I envision Ben having very little time to throw. Who on the Pitt O-line is going to account for Freeney and Triplett? In the end I think Pitt will score a few points, but I expect Indy to light up the scoreboard and win decisively. They beat Pitt 24-6 earlier in the year... what has changed since then? Not much if you ask me. 38-17 Indy...

GLTA this weekend...

 

[gjn23]

good luck....

a few things to keep in mind in that bears game:

1) 30 points (while seemingly high) is a very low number to reach....a turnover here, td as opposed to fg's and the game could be 14-14 while in a defensve struggle (look to to wash-tb last week.....27 points and a refs call away from 34 with ot pending)

2) right now the temp shouldn't be a problem sun afternoon in chi...could even be in the mid 40's.......may be windy however

3) since grossman has been inserted the bears offense has been productive 10 points in one quarter vs atlanta and 24 points in the next game....and the defense has not had to be as perfect (keep in mind the minny game was a joke....but was still an over)

in the end it comes down to turnovers....if they are in scoring range, you're screwed with that under....if they prevent scores, your golden

i've been all over the bears, the under and the bears and the under all year......and made a mint.......but even though i think this game has a better chance to go under than over...i will be off the under as 24-7....21-10 are not out of the question......

and i'll be screaming for the bears to win no matter what the score!!!!!!!!

bear down...chicago bears

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

good luck....

a few things to keep in mind in that bears game:

1) 30 points (while seemingly high) is a very low number to reach....a turnover here, td as opposed to fg's and the game could be 14-14 while in a defensve struggle (look to to wash-tb last week.....27 points and a refs call away from 34 with ot pending)

2) right now the temp shouldn't be a problem sun afternoon in chi...could even be in the mid 40's.......may be windy however

3) since grossman has been inserted the bears offense has been productive 10 points in one quarter vs atlanta and 24 points in the next game....and the defense has not had to be as perfect (keep in mind the minny game was a joke....but was still an over)

in the end it comes down to turnovers....if they are in scoring range, you're screwed with that under....if they prevent scores, your golden

i've been all over the bears, the under and the bears and the under all year......and made a mint.......but even though i think this game has a better chance to go under than over...i will be off the under as 24-7....21-10 are not out of the question......

and i'll be screaming for the bears to win no matter what the score!!!!!!!!

bear down...chicago bears

All great points gjn. Considering it's Chicago in January I was really hoping for worse weather. Unfortunately it doesn't sound like it will be too bad at all. And you're right, the Bears are a much better offense with Grossman behind center. I realize the number is very low, but I'm taking a chance that both defenses step up and the turnovers that do occur (you know there will be a few) don't result in a bunch of points. But like you said, if there are a bunch of turnovers in the other team's territory I could be in trouble.

Good luck to your Bears. I actually think they'll be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl this year.

 

[The Jets Fan]

GOD that would be an awful Superbowl but no worries.Bears are going 1 and out. I see carolina scoring in the 20's.You might still get your under but only if Chicago is held to 6 or 7.

This Game is a total mismatch. Root your Bears if you must but put your dough on the Panthers.

 

[gjn23]

how can a game be a mismatch when the team you say is at a disadvantage, just beat the other 6 weeks ago?

i see these teams as fairly even......all of carolina's advantages are offset by chicago's strengths (dellohome vs the pass rush and secondary...coaching...maybe...but they are on the road......their defense vs chi offense.....it's been the same story all year for the bears and they've managed to do what it takes to win)

 

[thom24ad]

I have my four picks for this week Denver, Indy, Seattle, and Under Bears/Panthers...I'm still doing quite a bit of reading and some research on these games but I should have my thread ready by Friday...I would have posted earlier but work has sucked this week...but Good Luck to both of us...and the under could be out the window with a couple TOs but I'm still thinking a 10-7 game...NE, literally not buying into the Pat's hype...their a fools gold team this week...Indy will be charged are ready to explode...Washington has been over achieving...just some quick thoughts...did you see Family Guy Sunday night...great episode!

 

[The Jets Fan]

I don't believe the best Defense on the field on Sunday will be the bears! That spells big trouble for Chitown. The 3 other playoff games will very similar to the regular season matchups but not this one.
24-6 Panthers

 

[tball]

24-6 Panthers?

24-6 Panthers?

now i know--one week is hardly recipe to base a wager the next--but... how does carolina team that scored ONLY 23 points against a Giants defense without many of their starters go ahead and score 24 against THIS bears defense in CHI? Carolina Got 3 interceptions from Manning and still only managed to muster 23--yet they're going to hang 24 on the bears? must be counting on another 3 picks from grossman or sp teams meltdown AND fumble inside bear's own redzone for this carolina squad to get to 24. Now, i'm a big deshaun foster fan--ever since i saw him with his loping stides pulling away defenses in his UCLA days--and my impression of him grew as saw him carry three plus PHI eagles into endzone to put away the NFC title game the year they went to SB (and ult lost to NE). As of late though--he has not been the same runner as seen in that PHI game--far from it--elusive to a point--but watching him VS giants, looked like he lost that extra step to get/pull away and berak the big one. This team too, doesnt have near the Off weapons this yr, that they did--that yr. Mushin Muhammed is now on the OTHER side of the ball--and i expect either him--or the other WR Berrian to have a big day vs CAR. I too, think Steve Smith is easily the most electrifying wideout going in these playoffs, with the skins' S. Moss a close second--and he can be a difference maker--though with no one else on the other side to keep bear's D honest--i see them keying on him--and letting the other rec corps to beat them--which i dont see happeneing. I believe delhomee will get frazzled and will try to force too many to steve--ultimately resulting in at least one Pick--maybe pick 6. Thats jus my opinion.

i too, think the bengals woulda beat pit had palmer played entire game. it looke dlike kitna got winded /not enough full game conditioning towards end/2h of game--and was a lil off mark--which steelers turned into 2 costly INTs---i DONT think they'll enjoy that same luxury vs manning and THIS his best chance (and he knows it) to get to SB

 

[Colonel_JB]

The panthers offense is not very exotic and I see the bears coming out ready to dominate the defensive side of the ball. Not that the bears are anything special on offense, but I do see their defense creating lots of short fields and generating enough points from their special teams and kicker gould. Their gameplan in a nutshell is on offense, don't make any stupid mistake, ie fumble, interceptions, bad decisions in general, and on defense shut down the running game and put pressure on delhomme. It may sound almost too easy but I seriously DO NOT see delhomme being able to win this game let alone being able to move the ball with any consistentcy. Not saying that the bears d is unbreakable because I know they are not. The packers moved the ball almost at will on the bears, they just don't give up points.

Couldn't agree much more with Glenn's initial post. Solid write up and congrats on a great season thus far.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

now i know--one week is hardly recipe to base a wager the next--but... how does carolina team that scored ONLY 23 points against a Giants defense without many of their starters go ahead and score 24 against THIS bears defense in CHI? Carolina Got 3 interceptions from Manning and still only managed to muster 23--yet they're going to hang 24 on the bears? must be counting on another 3 picks from grossman or sp teams meltdown AND fumble inside bear's own redzone for this carolina squad to get to 24. Now, i'm a big deshaun foster fan--ever since i saw him with his loping stides pulling away defenses in his UCLA days--and my impression of him grew as saw him carry three plus PHI eagles into endzone to put away the NFC title game the year they went to SB (and ult lost to NE). As of late though--he has not been the same runner as seen in that PHI game--far from it--elusive to a point--but watching him VS giants, looked like he lost that extra step to get/pull away and berak the big one. This team too, doesnt have near the Off weapons this yr, that they did--that yr. Mushin Muhammed is now on the OTHER side of the ball--and i expect either him--or the other WR Berrian to have a big day vs CAR. I too, think Steve Smith is easily the most electrifying wideout going in these playoffs, with the skins' S. Moss a close second--and he can be a difference maker--though with no one else on the other side to keep bear's D honest--i see them keying on him--and letting the other rec corps to beat them--which i dont see happeneing. I believe delhomee will get frazzled and will try to force too many to steve--ultimately resulting in at least one Pick--maybe pick 6. Thats jus my opinion.

i too, think the bengals woulda beat pit had palmer played entire game. it looke dlike kitna got winded /not enough full game conditioning towards end/2h of game--and was a lil off mark--which steelers turned into 2 costly INTs---i DONT think they'll enjoy that same luxury vs manning and THIS his best chance (and he knows it) to get to SB

Exactly. I have to say I'm amazed at how many people not only think Carolina is going to win, but win easily. I'm not playing the side but if I were I would probably take Chicago. I realize Carolina has been playing well lately but it seems like people are REALLY blowing that out of proportion. I think it's more important that Chicago absolutely dominated the Panthers the first time they played them. Why is everyone forgetting about that?? And everyone keeps mentioning Grossman's inexperience. While that's a totally valid point, since when did Delhomme become reliable on the road? He's one of the last guys I would want to back on the road against a great defense (yes he was good last week, but that was the Giants D).

And the other thing is that it's not as if the Bears have been struggling lately. Just think Carolina is a bit of a "sexy" pick this weekend. Deshaun Foster and the Panthers have had a good running attack the last TWO games, but the rest of the year they have been just plain bad. Foster won't even sniff 100 yards this weekend. Personally, I don't think he'll see 60. I think this will be a very low-scoring game, with the winner eeking out a 3-7 point win.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

GOD that would be an awful Superbowl but no worries.Bears are going 1 and out. I see carolina scoring in the 20's.You might still get your under but only if Chicago is held to 6 or 7.

This Game is a total mismatch. Root your Bears if you must but put your dough on the Panthers.

I'm not a Bears fan. I was just saying I think they'll be in the SB. Also, if the Bears go 1 and out, wouldn't that mean they would beat the Panthers? They had a bye last week. And as for the total mismatch... I'm a little confused on that one. Chicago beat the Panthers 13-3 earlier this season. If there's a mismatch in this game it favors Chicago.

 

[Dice34]

Well said Glenn........I would just like to add, everyone thinks the Panthers will take away the run game like they did against the Giants and put the game in Rex's hands, again, like they did Eli..............But the Bears didn't abandon the run at all during the season and that was agaisnt 8 and 9 guys in the box, with Orton at QB.......They still won all those games when the other team knew the Bears will be running, with no threat of a passing game.........the only thing that has changed is now the Bears O has more confidence with Rex in there for whatver the reason may be, but still no one is giving the bears a chance.

The under looks good when compared to what the Bears D has done at home last 6: 3,6,9,3,7,3.............a breakdown in special teams, critical TO could push it over....its a very tough call but G/L with your play

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Well said Glenn........I would just like to add, everyone thinks the Panthers will take away the run game like they did against the Giants and put the game in Rex's hands, again, like they did Eli..............But the Bears didn't abandon the run at all during the season and that was agaisnt 8 and 9 guys in the box, with Orton at QB.......They still won all those games when the other team knew the Bears will be running, with no threat of a passing game.........the only thing that has changed is now the Bears O has more confidence with Rex in there for whatver the reason may be, but still no one is giving the bears a chance.

The under looks good when compared to what the Bears D has done at home last 6: 3,6,9,3,7,3.............a breakdown in special teams, critical TO could push it over....its a very tough call but G/L with your play

Thanks Dice. Yeah, I forgot to include that Orton was the QB when they beat them the first time. Have to think they're even better now. You're right, my under could be in jeopardy if there are some big plays on special teams or costly turnovers. I'm hoping that won't happen but it's a possibility. I'm actually worried more about the turnovers. Hell, even if one of these teams coughs up the ball on their own 10 yard line it will still probably only result in a FG for the other team. :mj07:

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

I'm adding another one. This is probably only the 4th or 5th prop bet I've played in my life, but I love this one...

Corey Dillon (Under 63.5 rushing yards) - A few things of note...

1) The Broncos have the 2nd best run D in the league, giving up just 85 yards a game.
2) The Broncos pass D is MUCH worse than their run D, making me think NE will try to take advantage of that.
3) Dillon didn't even start last game, Kevin Faulk did. Dillon finished with 17 carries for 40 yards. And that was at home, in regular altitude.
4) I've read that the reason Faulk started instead of Dillon last week is because the coaching staff is angry at him for spouting off before the Jags game.

Lastly, I pulled this quote off of the RotoWorld website...

"Corey Dillon, probable with a calf injury, missed a portion of practice Wednesday.
Dillon should split carries this week, but it's clear he's not 100%"

I'm not one to pump up my picks, but what I will say is this is my biggest bet of the weekend. I would probably bet on this prop even if Dillon was 100% and I knew he was going to play the whole game. I just don't see the Pats being able to run the ball and I'm not even sure how much Dillon is going to play. Faulk is a much better back in third down/passing situations, so I expect him to play in those situations, which there should be a lot of. I think Dillon will play, but who knows if he will start? Plus, the fact that he's already banged up means there's a great chance he could aggravate his injury even more and be taken out of the game all together. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Dillon get less than 15 carries tomorrow.

Good luck everyone...

 

[thom24ad]

Good luck Glenn...Denver rush defense is solid

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Thanks Thom. I may take Denver -3 too. Call me a sucker, but I am worried a little bit about the Belichick/Pats mystique :mj07:

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Forgot to post my other pick that I added...

Indy -2.5/Sea -3 - Hopefully this one is as easy as it seems. I don't see Pitt being able to keep their game with Indy close. They just seem overmatched to me. I was thinking about reversing field and betting on Seattle - after first thinking Washington + was the play, but I don't want to play it now that it's up to 10. I do think that Seattle can cover the 3 points though.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Ok, I'm adding one more...

Denver -3 - I hate going against the mystique but I think Denver is the better team and they're playing at home. Think it will be close but like them to cover.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Been busier than a one-legged man in ass-kicking contest lately so I haven't had time to post. 2-3 weekend. 2 wins Saturday, 3 losses Sunday. Nick Harper should really just retire right now. He made Ben look like Butkus. Unbelievable. Will probably post my picks for next Sunday tomorrow.