Chicago-Carolina - Scouts Inc's take

BobbyBlueChip

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Belly of the Beast
Grossman must mature in a hurry By Scouts, Inc.


Why To Watch
The Bears are 9-2 in their last 11 games and have allowed only five touchdowns at home the entire season. Carolina is 7-2 on the road after dismantling the Giants in New York last week. John Fox leads a playoff-experienced Panthers team that will handle the crowd noise and elements without much issue, and Carolina clearly has the big-game experience advantage at quarterback, with its coaching staff and the kicking game. Carolina is also a very disciplined team, having committed the fewest penalties in the NFL this season.
Both of these teams are feature exceptional defenses that generate a lot of turnovers and wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks. Protecting the football is a must by both quarterbacks. Carolina is one of the best teams in the league when it has the lead, so the first quarter will be of the utmost importance. If the Panthers can make Chicago one-dimensional, as they did last week to the Giants, the Panthers' defense will make life very difficult for Bears QB Rex Grossman. Both teams are well-coached and have two of the best defenses in the league, but Carolina has much more playoff experience and a far more balanced offense.


When the Panthers have the ball
Rushing: The Panthers were dominant on the ground last week against the Giants (223 rushing yards), despite their top two ball carriers, DeShaun Foster (turf toe) and Nick Goings (ankle), fighting injuries. Foster posted 151 yards as Carolina's offensive line opened gaping holes, but he also fought hard for extra yardage, dragging tacklers down the field and refusing to stop his feet. Foster has emerged as a serious weapon who can run inside with power and burst, outside with speed and elusiveness and catch the ball with sure hands and a strong feel for route running and getting open.

This is a balanced Carolina offense, but it will lean heavily on Foster once again this week, even against the Bears' eight-man fronts. In order to get the ball in Steve Smith's hands more often and to keep Chicago's backside defenders honest, the Bears will get him a few carries on end arounds and reverses. Smith is pure electricity and capable of big plays every time he touches the football. The Bears tackle well and allow only 3.7 yards per rush with a very gap sound and aggressive front seven. They will get a huge boost with the return of their leader, SS Mike Brown. Brown is tough as nails, quick to fill on running plays and is a big-time hitter and playmaker.

Passing: Panthers offensive coordinator Dan Henning does an excellent job of mixing his calls and keeping a defense off balance, but it doesn't take an offensive guru to figure out that getting the ball to Smith as much as possible is a must. Smith has great hands, elite speed and is fantastic with the ball in his hands. Carolina will throw him the ball quickly with bubble screens, quick hitches and slants to force Chicago to bring a corner close to the line of scrimmage and then exploit the Bears' secondary deep. When these teams met earlier in the season, Smith had a whopping 14 catches for 169 yards.

QB Jake Delhomme is 4-1 as a starter in the playoffs and will have to take what Chicago gives him without forcing the football on the road. In the first meeting, Delhomme threw two interceptions to Nathan Vasher. Multiple turnovers in this contest by Delhomme will be catastrophic, so he needs to be a game manager much more than a guy who has to carry this offense. The Bears had 41 sacks during the regular season and will force the Panthers to use extra blockers against their defensive ends. LT Travelle Wharton will need a tight end to stay in and block against RDE Alex Brown.

Chicago will play a lot of Cover 2, as usual, but it might be forced to bring S Brown into the box to stop the Panthers' running attack, making it much more difficult to double Smith. Chicago's defense is the best in the NFL in the red zone, where it switches to man coverage in a shortened field and generate excellent pressure on opposing quarterbacks. DE Julius Peppers should see the field near the goal line for the Panthers and could give the Bears some problems matching up against his size, strength and athletic ability in man coverage. The weather and crowd noise in Chicago could be problematic for Carolina's passing attack, but expect Delhomme and this veteran group to handle both quite well.

When the Bears have the ball
Rushing: Carolina took Tiki Barber out of the game last week and made Eli Manning try to win the game with his arm. Obviously, this was a successful formula in the Panthers' shutout, and Chicago doesn't have receiving weapons comparable to the Giants. Expect a heavy dosage of eight- and nine-man fronts this week. Carolina has a fast flowing defense that fills gaps very quickly and is an excellent tackling squad. That is especially true with a safety added to the box for run support. LB/S Thomas Davis should continue to see more playing time, and the Panthers use his versatility extremely well as a cover guy, blitzer and hard-hitting run defender.

Chicago wants to lean on its rushing attack and play this one close to the vest, but against Carolina's loaded front, moving the ball on the ground will be quite difficult. The Bears will still pound the ball with Thomas Jones regardless of what Carolina does, but don't expect a big day for Jones.

Passing: Chicago's offensive line is steady, physical and an above-average group as a whole, but it often plays a man-blocking pass protection -- much like the Giants -- and will struggle with Carolina's pass rush. The Panthers had great success running loops and defensive tackle/tackle and tackle/end stunts that caused New York's interior linemen to chase their assigned man and open gaping holes in the pass protection. As a result, Carolina had great success rushing just its four linemen and playing man coverage behind it with extra zone support. OC Olin Kreutz makes the line calls and will have to be on top of this situation and adjust Chicago's protection accordingly.

The Panthers finished the season second in the NFL in takeaways and created four turnovers last week in New York. If Grossman turns the ball over on multiple occasions, the Bears' chances of winning are slim. Carolina's secondary matches up well very well against the Bears' receiving options. CB Ken Lucas is among the top players at his position and has great size to neutralize bigger wide receivers. Plaxico Burress didn't have a single catch last week, and Lucas will surely match up against the Bears' top weapon, Muhsin Muhammad. Lucas will eliminate Muhammad and Chris Gamble will have his way with Justin Gage or Bernard Berrian. This secondary's advantage will allow the Panthers the option to bring an extra blitzer on throwing downs, making Grossman's pass protection that much more difficult.
 

BobbyBlueChip

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Belly of the Beast
As shown by Wild Card Weekend, experience at quarterback is almost imperative for playoff success. The three first-time playoff quarterbacks who played extensively last week -- Eli Manning, Chris Simms and Byron Leftwich -- had a combined 0/6 TD/INT ratio and, more important, an 0-3 record. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady and Jake Delhomme combined for a 7/0 TD/INT ratio and a 3-0 record.
Delhomme is 4-1 as a playoff starter, and Rex Grossman will be making his first postseason start. Both quarterbacks face outstanding defenses this week, and the offensive coaches will want to rely heavily on the running attack, which might force several high-pressure, third-down situations. Carolina and Delhomme have excelled on third downs all season and clearly have the edge in pressure situations even though the game is in Chicago.

It is paramount that the quarterbacks not force throws in the face of a heavy rush, as multiple turnovers would be catastrophic for either team. Carolina's defense finished the season second in the NFL in takeaways and forced four turnovers last week. Grossman will make more mistakes with the football than Delhomme, and that could be the most important factor in the outcome of this game.

? Much as it did last weekend against the Giants, Carolina is going to attack the middle of the defense with the run. LG Mike Wahle is an outstanding, nasty and mobile interior player who is capable of handling either of Chicago's explosive defensive tackles in a one-on-one matchup. DT Tommie Harris quickly has become of the most disruptive interior players in the NFL, but Wahle still has a slight advantage. Harris' power and explosion are more than RG Tutan Reyes or OC Jeff Mitchell can handle one-on-one, though, and he often will force extra attention.

RB DeShaun Foster was outstanding last week despite battling a turf toe injury, racking up 151 yards against the Giants. Foster is fast and elusive enough to be effective attacking the edge of the Bears' defense, but he will use his natural power and impressive size to wear down Chicago's defensive tackles and MLB Brian Urlacher. Foster is running with passion and dragged the Giants' defenders for extra yardage consistently. Although the Giants' defense (especially at linebacker) is a far cry from what Chicago will throw at the Panthers, Foster will wear down the Bears eventually.

? Chicago's defense is superb in the red zone. Although the Bears play a lot of Cover 2 outside the red zone, they lock down their athletic playmaking corners on wide receivers and play predominantly man coverage inside the 20-yard line. Chicago stacks the line of scrimmage and attacks the running game, then pressures the quarterback and forces quick decisions and hasty throws in the minimized field.

One interesting twist when the Panthers have the ball in the red zone is the implementation of DE Julius Peppers as a receiving option. Peppers lines up wide, and if he draws single coverage -- which is the norm -- Carolina will throw him jump balls where he can use his basketball skills, great frame and big strong hands to go up and pluck the ball out of the air over a shorter and lighter defender.

? Steve Smith is the top playmaker in the NFL this season and is capable of changing this game. Carolina will take several approaches to getting the ball in his hands. Offensive coordinator Dan Henning does an outstanding job of keeping defenses off balance with his play calling while best using his players' strengths. Smith will supplement Carolina's rushing attack with end arounds, reverses and other trick plays and will catch quite a few bubble screens and quick hitches to get him in space to challenge Chicago's defenders.

Smith, who torched the Bears with 14 catches for 169 yards in Week 11, should draw Pro Bowl CB Nathan Vasher in this contest. Vasher is very athletic and has a fantastic nose for the football, but Smith is on a different plane right now and will put up huge numbers once again if left alone vs. Vasher. Vasher is sure to get safety support over the top, but Smith is still capable of beating Vasher's press coverage and running past the Bears' secondary for huge gains. Smith is playing that incredibly well right now, and his confidence as a playmaker is off the charts.

? Grossman is going to have a difficult time finding open receivers. Carolina is going to bring eight and nine defenders into the box to eliminate the Bears' rushing attack and make the onus of Chicago's offensive production fall on Grossman's shoulders. In the passing game, Chicago will need to keep an extra blocker or two in to help control Carolina's defensive ends and blitz packages. Carolina might be free to blitz more than usual because of the mismatches its cornerbacks have over Chicago's wide receivers. Muhsin Muhammad is clearly the Bears' most dangerous receiver, but CB Ken Lucas should be able to lock him down with his great size and superior athletic ability.

The same is true on the other side of the field, where young CB Chris Gamble is an emerging talent in his own right and has clear physical advantages over both Justin Gage and Bernard Berrian. These corners will allow the Panthers to get creative with a variety of blitz packages or man/zone schemes to confuse Grossman. Grossman was sacked only once this season, but expect that number to increase exponentially against the Panthers.

? The defensive ends alone are enough to make watching this game worthwhile. In the first meeting, Bears LDE Adewale Ogunleye had three sacks and RDE Alex Brown had two. Carolina LT Travelle Wharton will need help, probably from a tight end, to keep Brown at bay. Brown has a variety of pass-rush moves and explodes off the line of scrimmage. He also has good power and agility.

Ogunleye gets off the ball low and with an excellent first step. He is quick to get his long arms on his opponent and keeps blockers off his body. He is a very good speed guy who can run past offensive tackles and track plays down from behind. Carolina's starting defensive ends are no slouches, either. Not only is Peppers a freakish athlete with uncommonly long arms and an outstanding body type for the position but he also is an excellent hustle player who uses his extreme speed to hunt ball carriers down from behind and make plays down the field.

RDE Mike Rucker also has outstanding length and uses his long arms to keep blockers off his body. He has athleticism blended with nastiness. In the running game, Peppers is excellent if he plays within himself and recognizes the run at him, but he still can be too quick to get up the field. Rucker doesn't hold the point as well as Peppers and doesn't have ideal lower-body strength and bulk. Both players can be run at, but they also have distinct advantages over Chicago's offensive tackles in the passing game, Peppers over RT Fred Miller in particular.

? The Giants' man-blocking scheme had an awful time last week picking up the Panthers' stunts, loops and twists, and the Bears play a similar protection scheme. New York's linemen were following their original blocking assignment and chasing Carolina's pass rushers, opening gaping holes in their protection. The Panthers' pass-rushers are quick to capitalize on any small advantage, and OC Olin Kreutz will have to be mentally prepared to adjust the Bears' pass protection and help Grossman audible out of bad plays.

Carolina probably will blitz more than it did last week because the Bears do not have pass-catching weapons on par with the Giants'. John Fox is sure to have a new wrinkle and a couple of new blitzes for this game. Carolina should have success getting to Grossman on throwing downs, putting him on the ground and forcing the ball out of his hands more quickly than he would like.

? Rookie S Thomas Davis is a unique player who is coming into his own quickly. The Panthers use Davis in many ways. Last week, he did an excellent job against TE Jeremy Shockey, and the week before that, he was outstanding spying Falcons QB Michael Vick. He has the athleticism to eliminate TE Desmond Clark, who caught only one pass in the last four games of the regular season, from Chicago's passing game.

Davis is becoming a standout as an in-the-box run defender and as a downhill player. As versatile as he is, what he probably does best is attack the quarterback as a blitzer: timing his release well, then closing with aggression and power. Davis has good players in front of him on the depth chart, but this is the type of game where we should see him on the field for most of the day. Watch him closely, and expect to see him do some special things. Davis is a star in the making and is in an excellent situation in Carolina.

Special Teams
Carolina has a decided advantage with the experience and reliability of place-kicker John Kasay. Chicago's kicker, Robbie Gould, has never been in a playoff game and is only 3-for-8 from beyond 40 yards. In the defensive battle this game is sure to be, the winning team might emerge from the foot of its kicker. The elements could be a factor for both kickers, but Kasay has the clear advantage over Gould.

The punting game also shouldn't be overlooked. Carolina will have Steve Smith returning punts in what is sure to be a close, physical game. Every returner in this game, punt returners in particular, needs to secure the football in the swirling January winds of Chicago. This is particularly a concern for Smith, who could try to force the issue and take risks in an effort to make a game-changing play. Chicago's Bernard Berrian also needs to be concerned, as Carolina's punt team has forced turnovers twice in the last two weeks.
 

BobbyBlueChip

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Belly of the Beast
Scouts' Edge
This game features two of the best defenses in the game, a ton of hitting and defensive-minded head coaches who have done an outstanding job this season. Both defenses flow to the ball very quickly and get to the ball carrier with numerous defenders without losing their gap responsibilities.

The Bears' defense has allowed only five touchdowns at home, and the Panthers are 7-2 on the road, including their shutout victory in New York last week. SS Mike Brown returns this week from a calf injury, and his presence and leadership are invaluable to Chicago's defense. Big-game experience, particularly at quarterback, will give the Panthers the edge in the turnover battle, and they will win with fewer penalties, the more balanced offense, and more big plays on both sides of the ball and in the kicking game.

Prediction: Panthers 20, Bears 14
 
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