Smitty Says

Smitty

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NOW it's college hoops season. approximately 746 games on the card today. i've narrowed it down to my top 91 plays....

villanova (+4.5) 3 units. 'nova will be ready for their last non-conference test of the season (other than a big-5 game against st joe's next month). college hoops is dominated by guard play, and texas will have no answer for the perimeter game of villanova. we saw what happens to texas when they play a well-coached, perimeter-based offense against duke. i'm looking for more of the same today.

texas a&m (-2.5) 2 units. until oklahoma learns to win on the road, i will continue to go against them.

west virginia (-8.5) 2 units. just a case of the line looking too high, trying to get marquette money. novak will get his points, but so will pittsnogle. actually, i just love saying "pittsnogle".

butler (-12.5) 3 units. detroit is struggling offensively without cotton. butler has the same starting 5 they had last year, when they beat detroit here by 15. and that was with cotton scoring 22. this could get ugly.

baylor (+8) 2 units. baylor got off to a great start against tech, then fizzled. i'm thinking the home crowd (all 214 of 'em!) will keep up their energy level against an oklahoma state squad that is not as good as they have been in recent years.

cleveland st (+9) 3 units. gotta respect what the penguins have done this year. they've gone from doormat to competitive. what often happens in this situation though... as soon as a team like this starts being favored in games, they fall flat on their face. it's difficult to make the transition from constant underdog to favorite. now they are laying 9 points to a cleveland state team that they haven't beaten by more than 4 in the last 3 years. the vikings have become more competitive themselves. they only lost at michigan state by 8 last month. and in their last 3 games, they lost at uw milw by 7, lost at home to wright state by 3, and beat detroit at home by 6. i expect a close game here. these vikings haven't been on any sex cruises this week, have they?

sorry, i lied... that is clearly not 91 plays. maybe next saturday.
 

Cappin Kirk

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I usually play all unranked home favs vs. ranked road dogs, but if you look into this game vegas opened the line at a pk'em. I think the public has moved the line 2.5 points favoring A&M. This happened in the North Carolina/ VT game earlier this week. Carolina pulled that one out, and I believe OU wins today.

GL
 

Smitty

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cappin, i did see that it opened at a pick. and i know it looks like public money moved a&m to a 2.5 point fav. i just find that hard to believe... that the public would be betting a&m hard enough in this matchup to move the line that much. seems fishy to me. it is possible though that the public is overreacting to oklahoma's loss to nebraska. who knows? i've been wrong more times than i can count. :) not a large play for me.

thank you for your input.
 

Cappin Kirk

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I like the line movement in the Baylor game. I may look into this one a little further. Think you have the right side.
 

Smitty

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Cappin Kirk said:
I like the line movement in the Baylor game. I may look into this one a little further. Think you have the right side.

i hope so. :) i also decided to throw some money on your wildcats today. i've done ok going against them so far this year, but i have a strange feeling they're gonna get it done today. all the tubby-bashing (heh heh, he said 'tubby-bashing') will subside for at least a couple days.
 

Cappin Kirk

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I thought they would respond against Vandy like they did against Louisville after the Indy embarrasement, but I was wrong. I watch every game and you never know who is going to play, what style they are trying to enforce. We are having trouble shooting the ball. You can't get wins if you can't score. I grabbed Bama +4 1st half. I think they will pull away in the 2nd, but expect a different lineup today. If he plays the big guys you will laugh your ass off. We have 21 ft. (3 7fters) of centers and they're all pathetic. The freshman Carter is the only one who can run and chew gum at the same time. This team has no leader and no heart. When I give up on them they usually play the game of thier lives, so you may be in luck, because I don't see us getting past the 2nd round this year. I won't be surprised if we finished third in the SEC East. GL, I hope you're right.
 

Smitty

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Cappin Kirk said:
. When I give up on them they usually play the game of thier lives, so you may be in luck,

that's kinda what i'm counting on. usually, right when people give up on a team is the best time to bet on them. of course, being kentucky, people will always bet on them, so they may get buried today, along with my money. i feel a lot better about it seeing sec guru on them.
 

Smitty

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thanks, mc. i posted in the nfl forum a little while ago. i love denver today and i kinda like seattle. you seem like a smart man, so i'm assuming you're looking to fade my plays. :)

by the way... i loved your post in ratslla's thread. had to be done.
 

Smitty

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HOLY COW, STOP THE PRESSES!!! SMITTY FINISHED THE DAY +1 UNIT!!!! NICE JOB, SMITTY!!! :clap: :clap:

sorry, i gotta enjoy the rare profitable days. :)
 
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