Conference Finals...

[MrChristo]

...gunna start with a prop bet...

Plummer under 20.5 completions

Just going with the %'s in this one...
In 17 games, he has completed over 20 passes in just 3 games;
22/48 in wk. 1...a loss @ Miami.
23/37 in wk. 2...v. San Diego.
22/35 in wk. 8...v. Philli.

All have worst %'s allowed and more pass yards allowed than Pittsburgh.

The Steelers have allowed 21+ in 6 of 18 games...(but one of those was an OT game, which was 19/32 in reg.), so really 5 of 18...
22/38 @ Indi last week (15th in pass attempts...7th in completions)
25/41 @ Cinci 2 weeks back (12th in attempts...4th in completions)
22/38 v. Cinci again
25/44 v. Balt (surprisingly 8th in attempts and 10th in completions!)
31/41 v. NE (not surprisingly!...7th and 6th)

Denver are 25th in attempts and 24th in completions (17.4 per game)
Pittsburgh allow 19.7 per game, but as you can see, if we take out the games which they played teams in the top 10 for completions (Tenn (18/27 and SD (20/35) count in that category aswell)...they av. just 17.0 per game allowed.

I think Pittsburgh will continue to bring a tonne of pressure this week as it was so successful for them last week, so expect some sacks and hurried throws.


As for the games themselves, I like the under in both (yes, Pawa, such a surprise I know! :mj07: )...hoping for 44 @ Seattle...but still got a bit of work to do on both games.

Good Luck all

 

[Dizzayton]

Agree with the unders. Playoff football has proven to be alot of things this year, and high scoring is not one of them. All four teams have solid defenses.

 

[MrChristo]

Seattle v. Carolina under 43.5

Probably not much to say that hasn't already been said.
Basically read last week's thread for Seattle info! (I don't think they can top 20, as they haven't against a top defense all season...they average something like 16 ppg against top 10 defenses.)

Carolina?...scored 29 on Chicago, sure, but 2 things...the Bears did NOT double team Smith once last week! Madness. Seattle will surely bump him on the line to slow him down and I suspect they'll nearly always have a safety for help...this will do 2 things; stop the deep ball to Smith (obviously), and probably open up more of a running game. Tick-tock.
Can Carolina take advantage with just one healthy RB?...Hoover is not 100%, which will definately hurt, so I think Seattle can afford to focus in on stopping the passing game.
And, although Carolina did score 29 last week, on TWO TD passes, Smith was totally on his own because the defender had fallen over!!

Really like having the extra half point on the 43, because a 20-23 game is absolutely on the cards, but this should be a defensive game all the way.

 

[bombercoops]

GL with your plays C! Don't mind if seattle score only 20 as long as caro score no more than 14. lol! Two great games to look forward to.