NFL YTD (25-18-1)
Ever since starting out well I've been mired in mediocrity. I was thinking about betting on the Broncos game because I like them a lot this weekend, but I figured why not stick with the team I know better than any other? Having said that, I probably won't be able to watch the game based on this pick...
Carolina (+4.5 and ML) Bear with me fellas, this may be long. Anyway, I really like Carolina to win this game by about 7 points. I'll try to isolate my thoughts as best I can. So here we go...
A couple of random thoughts... why were they making such a big deal out of whether or not Locklear would start/play? Womack was the starting RT coming out of training camp. He is every bit as good as Locklear and only lost the job due to injury.
And why is the Foster injury supposed to be so crushing? Granted, he is a better back than Goings. But exactly HOW much better? Goings had 5 100 yards game in the 7 that he started last year. He is more than capable of producing. And the bottom line is this... neither one of those guys was/is going to run on Seattle this weekend. It's not well known, but Seattle has the #5 run D in the NFL. If they can stop Portis, they would have stopped Foster.
Seattle on O - Seattle will spread the field with 3 and 4 WR sets like they always do. These are their most effective formations. It gives Alexander lanes to run in and it gives Hass extra options. I know I'm disagreeing with a lot of people when I say this, but I just don't see Alexander doing much on Sunday. The Panthers have a great run D and he will be keyed on all game long. They can stack the box and take away the run because they have a good secondary. Seattle has no speed burner WRs so Carolina can afford to be aggressive upfront and play 1-on-1 with their very good corners. Like I said before, if Seattle is going to win this game it will be on the shoulders of ol' Matty Hass. And yes, I know Seattle has a great left side of the line and a stud FB blocking for Smiley, I just don't think it will matter. The Panthers have an amazing front 7 and I see them stopping the run all day. Seattle has had a problem with big, physical defenses all season long. Although he didn't play much against Washington Shaun had 6 carries for 9 yards. I don't think he would have magically pulled it together even if he had played the whole game. I don't think Sunday will be any different.
Seattle on D - I expect Seattle to be aggressive. They will do everything they can to slow down Smith, and they have the luxury of knowing the other team's RB probably won't have a big game. I expect them to try to get a lot of pressure on Delhomme and confuse him with multiple blitz packages. This would be uncharacteristic, because Rhodes hates blitzing. He likes to bring pressure with just the front four. Still, I think they will do whatever they can to rattle Jake. Smith will be double and maybe even triple-covered in this game. Seattle knows if they can stop him they have a great chance of winning. The funny thing is, I don't think they can. If the Bears D can't, why should I believe Seattle's can? Their pass D is VERY poor, so I think they are in for a long day. And I may be crazy for saying this, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an unsung hero step up in this game for Carolina since Smith will garner so much attention. Mangum? Hoover? Goings? Someone else is going to get catches. But who?
Carolina on O - I think Goings is going to get bottled up pretty well but I also think Carolina will try to establish him. They know that Seattle will be keying on Smith. I'm sure they want to use the run to loosen things up if they can. If they can establish even a mediocre run game that would set up the play pass. Not saying they will be able to, but I do expect them to try. I also expect them to get the ball to Smith as much as possible. Not just throwing the ball, but end arounds, handoffs, etc. If they don't get him the ball at least 15 times in this game they are making a huge mistake. There's not too much to write about here. I think the whole world knows Carolina will look to get Smith involved. My biggest question is how much time will the line give Jake to throw? That's one of the keys to the game in my opinion. I do think Seattle will get to him, but I also think their aggressiveness could come back to haunt them a few times.
Carolina on D - As I said before, I really think Carolina will sell out against the run in this game. I don't see Alexander gaining more than 70 yards, and I think he would have to have about 25 carries or more to even get that much. Yes Seattle has a potent passing game, but Carolina has a very good secondary. I think they would like to limit Alexander early and force Seattle to throw. And here's the thing... Holmgren has always been a pass first, run second kind of guy. He's done a little better job this year, but mark my words, if the running game sputters this will be a chuckfest for Hass and the Seahawks. I'll say it again, if Seattle wins it will be because of Matt and the receiving corps. For the life of me I just can't see Shaun having a big game. Peppers will definitely play in this game, but how healthy is he? Carolina's front four needs to pressure Hass. He's at his worst when he's being pressured. Anyone remember that whirling dirvish pass last week against Washington when he was backpedaling? If you rattle him he will make some bad decisions. Not a lot of bad decisions, but enough to hurt his team.
I'll take Fox over Holmgren any day and twice on Sunday. Holmgren is a shitty playcaller, pure and simple. He also makes some idiotic decisions, like making Jimmy Williams a punt returner in the first place (never should have happened). And last week, after he muffs a punt, he left him in the rest of the game?! Bobby Engram used to be the punt returner and he did a good job. He's the most sure-handed Seahawk on the team. For some reason Holmgren replaced him. Maybe he didn't want to risk injury? Now he has Warrick returning punts this week. Wow. There's a good idea. Replacing the crappy player with another crappy player who hasn't seen game action in HOW long? Genius.
I'll wrap this up now by saying as great as Seattle's O is, I don't see them scoring too much on Sunday. Washington shut them down pretty well and Carolina's D is even better. As much as I hate to say it, I think Carolina's D will frustrate Alexander and the Seahawks all day long.
Final score -- Carolina 24, Seattle 17
GLTA
P.S. If my crappy sportsbook would ever post the prop for Alexander's total rushing yards I'll probably take whatever the under is. Just a head's up but I'll post that pick too.
Ever since starting out well I've been mired in mediocrity. I was thinking about betting on the Broncos game because I like them a lot this weekend, but I figured why not stick with the team I know better than any other? Having said that, I probably won't be able to watch the game based on this pick...
Carolina (+4.5 and ML) Bear with me fellas, this may be long. Anyway, I really like Carolina to win this game by about 7 points. I'll try to isolate my thoughts as best I can. So here we go...
A couple of random thoughts... why were they making such a big deal out of whether or not Locklear would start/play? Womack was the starting RT coming out of training camp. He is every bit as good as Locklear and only lost the job due to injury.
And why is the Foster injury supposed to be so crushing? Granted, he is a better back than Goings. But exactly HOW much better? Goings had 5 100 yards game in the 7 that he started last year. He is more than capable of producing. And the bottom line is this... neither one of those guys was/is going to run on Seattle this weekend. It's not well known, but Seattle has the #5 run D in the NFL. If they can stop Portis, they would have stopped Foster.
Seattle on O - Seattle will spread the field with 3 and 4 WR sets like they always do. These are their most effective formations. It gives Alexander lanes to run in and it gives Hass extra options. I know I'm disagreeing with a lot of people when I say this, but I just don't see Alexander doing much on Sunday. The Panthers have a great run D and he will be keyed on all game long. They can stack the box and take away the run because they have a good secondary. Seattle has no speed burner WRs so Carolina can afford to be aggressive upfront and play 1-on-1 with their very good corners. Like I said before, if Seattle is going to win this game it will be on the shoulders of ol' Matty Hass. And yes, I know Seattle has a great left side of the line and a stud FB blocking for Smiley, I just don't think it will matter. The Panthers have an amazing front 7 and I see them stopping the run all day. Seattle has had a problem with big, physical defenses all season long. Although he didn't play much against Washington Shaun had 6 carries for 9 yards. I don't think he would have magically pulled it together even if he had played the whole game. I don't think Sunday will be any different.
Seattle on D - I expect Seattle to be aggressive. They will do everything they can to slow down Smith, and they have the luxury of knowing the other team's RB probably won't have a big game. I expect them to try to get a lot of pressure on Delhomme and confuse him with multiple blitz packages. This would be uncharacteristic, because Rhodes hates blitzing. He likes to bring pressure with just the front four. Still, I think they will do whatever they can to rattle Jake. Smith will be double and maybe even triple-covered in this game. Seattle knows if they can stop him they have a great chance of winning. The funny thing is, I don't think they can. If the Bears D can't, why should I believe Seattle's can? Their pass D is VERY poor, so I think they are in for a long day. And I may be crazy for saying this, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an unsung hero step up in this game for Carolina since Smith will garner so much attention. Mangum? Hoover? Goings? Someone else is going to get catches. But who?
Carolina on O - I think Goings is going to get bottled up pretty well but I also think Carolina will try to establish him. They know that Seattle will be keying on Smith. I'm sure they want to use the run to loosen things up if they can. If they can establish even a mediocre run game that would set up the play pass. Not saying they will be able to, but I do expect them to try. I also expect them to get the ball to Smith as much as possible. Not just throwing the ball, but end arounds, handoffs, etc. If they don't get him the ball at least 15 times in this game they are making a huge mistake. There's not too much to write about here. I think the whole world knows Carolina will look to get Smith involved. My biggest question is how much time will the line give Jake to throw? That's one of the keys to the game in my opinion. I do think Seattle will get to him, but I also think their aggressiveness could come back to haunt them a few times.
Carolina on D - As I said before, I really think Carolina will sell out against the run in this game. I don't see Alexander gaining more than 70 yards, and I think he would have to have about 25 carries or more to even get that much. Yes Seattle has a potent passing game, but Carolina has a very good secondary. I think they would like to limit Alexander early and force Seattle to throw. And here's the thing... Holmgren has always been a pass first, run second kind of guy. He's done a little better job this year, but mark my words, if the running game sputters this will be a chuckfest for Hass and the Seahawks. I'll say it again, if Seattle wins it will be because of Matt and the receiving corps. For the life of me I just can't see Shaun having a big game. Peppers will definitely play in this game, but how healthy is he? Carolina's front four needs to pressure Hass. He's at his worst when he's being pressured. Anyone remember that whirling dirvish pass last week against Washington when he was backpedaling? If you rattle him he will make some bad decisions. Not a lot of bad decisions, but enough to hurt his team.
I'll take Fox over Holmgren any day and twice on Sunday. Holmgren is a shitty playcaller, pure and simple. He also makes some idiotic decisions, like making Jimmy Williams a punt returner in the first place (never should have happened). And last week, after he muffs a punt, he left him in the rest of the game?! Bobby Engram used to be the punt returner and he did a good job. He's the most sure-handed Seahawk on the team. For some reason Holmgren replaced him. Maybe he didn't want to risk injury? Now he has Warrick returning punts this week. Wow. There's a good idea. Replacing the crappy player with another crappy player who hasn't seen game action in HOW long? Genius.
I'll wrap this up now by saying as great as Seattle's O is, I don't see them scoring too much on Sunday. Washington shut them down pretty well and Carolina's D is even better. As much as I hate to say it, I think Carolina's D will frustrate Alexander and the Seahawks all day long.
Final score -- Carolina 24, Seattle 17
GLTA
P.S. If my crappy sportsbook would ever post the prop for Alexander's total rushing yards I'll probably take whatever the under is. Just a head's up but I'll post that pick too.
