The Road to Super Bowl XL

[lostinamerica]

NFL Post Season: 3-0 (+3.52*)
NFL Regular Season: 40-29 (+7.40*)
NCAA Regular Season: 44-40 (-0.33*)
NCAA Bowl Season: 7-8 (-1.20*)


Seattle(-9) over Washington (1.50*)
- - The Seahawks have been peaking for this moment for a long ass time. A long ass time. Or not. Joe Gibbs' teams keep sawing wood with the best of them, but teams that bring a lot more to the table than the 2005 Skins would be highly vulnerable under more favorable circumstances. Or not. From every direction. Or not.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

TEASE New England(+9) over Denver w/ Carolina(+9) over Chicago (1*)
- - I wouldn't mind being wrong about both sides of that equation (for quite different reasons) . . . I've dug, I've listened, I've visualized, I've analyzed, looking for reasons to change what was my initial take for playing these games, and in the final analysis, I'm even stronger on New England, and I've wavered some in my conviction to Carolina.

Whether you look at performance, stats, players and matchups, intangilbles, whatever, this is not the vulnerable Patriots team that Marty Schottenheimer took pity on and Denver exploded on. Whatever advantage Denver can eke out or assert against the underdog Champs during the course of this game doesn't look to me like the stake through the heart it's going to take for any early celebrations . . . On to Chicago and Soldier Field . . .


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

NFL Post Season: 4-1 (+3.92*)
NFL Regular Season: 40-29 (+7.40*)
NCAA Regular Season: 44-40 (-0.33*)
NCAA Bowl Season: 7-8 (-1.20*)

Last year, it was barely Monday morning when I made sizeable wagers on easy calls in favor of Philadelphia(-4') and New England(-2') for the conference championships. The year before, my standard wagers on Carolina(+4') and New England(-3) were locked in days before the conference championships. This year, both title games have me severely conflicted, and if championships weren't on the line today, I'm almost certain I'd just pass on the AFC game. As it is, I've waited about as long as possible for some divine revelations that haven't arrived. Tough calls.


AFC Championship:

Pittsburgh(+3)(+100) over Denver (1*)

- - The linchpin is Pittsburgh limiting Denver's rushing game, which I expect. It then follows that Denver will look to win in much the same way they did against New England. Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh don't have the poise of Brady and Belichick in the face of all out blitzs, but they do possess more balance to avoid those spots, and TE Heath Miller turning around should be a nice out, and avoiding disasters is the crucial yardstick. The Steelers return teams should more than hold their own. Jake Plummer is not exactly a refined student of the game when it comes to facing the best defense he's seen all year . . . Prior Cowher teams carried much weightier pressure in their championship game endeavors and were less equipped to handle it with the peak of their seasons somewhere in the rear view mirror. This team is at its strongest now, really can use hostility about as well as they can hometown affection, and the taste of last year's failure is fresh in their collective mouths. I see a live dog, so I'm wagering accordingly.


GL

*************************************

The Journey is the Reward.

 

[lostinamerica]

NFC Championship:

Carolina(+4) over Seattle (1*)

Keys to the game

Carolina looks purposefully built to matchup with any elite NFL style in championship character games - built from the top with a big game coach, a gamer at QB, defense, special teams, the right way. Carolina is doing too many things well right now to think they aren't close to their best for this game . . . Unlike Denver, Seattle really is underrated in almost every quarter around the country. The biggest unsung story has been the transition from a defense that was lacking simple fundamentals for years to a play making defense that has been making teams work hard all year to find ways to beat them. The Seahawks have no reason to take anything for granted and have yet to show that characteristic. The homefield advantage has been built fully by design in the Holmgren way. Hasselbeck has great attributes and skills, but in some spots carries on with a shade of cockiness that exceeds his stature against a team that can capitalize . . . I can't see this game being decided before a final possession late in the game. I'll take the points with a live dog, but I'm a Seattle fan all the way in this one.

GL