superbowl plays & info....

[AR182]

this is a system that i posted in 2004 on the superbowl......

if possible can somebody bring the system up to date...

here is a super bowl system that i copied from another site.i think it's pretty interesting & would like to hear what other posters thought of it.

Super Bowl System (32-3-2 ATS)

Here is a system that some have used for the last few years. It did lose last year with Oakland. The Oakland loss was the only loss in the last 19 Super Bowls and is 32-3-2 ATS. Hank Stram had a system that was somewhat like this but this one has been changed to add numbers that can be researched.

Use Regular season stats only. Only 1 team should get points from each category. Stats can be found at different websites. Obviously, New England will get 10 points for winning a Super Bowl in the last 3 years and get another 8 since Carolina has not been in a Super Bowl. (It looks as if the Pats will be a big favorite in this system)


Points

10 If team has won the Super Bowl in last 3 years

8 if an opponent is going to their first Super Bowl

8 to the team that allows fewer defensive rushes

7 give to team with most offensive rushes

7 award the team with best overall record (straight up)

5 to the team with the lowest def. rush average per carry

4 give 4 pts. to the team with the better ATS record

4 to the team that has the superior NET penalty yards

4 to the team with the best NET kick-punt TD returns

3.5 team with the best yds per pass attempt

3.5 to the team that gave up the fewest points

3.5 allowed the fewest rushing TD's

3 award 3 points to the team with the most sacks

2.5 team with the fewest offensive pass attempts

2 team with the best NET punts (total) on the season

1.5 add to the team with the best avg. per off. rush

1 add 1 to the team with the best completion percent

System results:

except for the last 2 years, here are the system results for the last 19 Super Bowls showing the point totals, spread, difference and actual score.

19 SF 57.5 (-3.5) over Miami 12 42 WIN 38-16

20 Chi 45.5 (-10) over NE 6 29.5 WIN 46-10

21 NYG 54.5 (-9.5) over Den 13 32 WIN 39-20

22 Wash 43.5 (+3) over Den 12 34.5 WIN 42-10

23 Cin 28 (+7) over SF 27 8 WIN 16-20

24 SF 40.5 (-12.5) over Den 20 8.5 WIN 55-10

25 NYG 33.5 (+7) over Buff 24 16.5 WIN 20-19

26 Wash 53 (-7) over Buff 6.5 39.5 WIN 37-24

27 Dal 35.5 (-6.5) over Buff 21 8 WIN 52-17

28 Dal 36 (-10) over Buff 19 7 WIN 30-13

29 SF 53 (-18) over SD 14.5 20.5 WIN 49-26

30 Pitt 29.5 (+13.5) over Dal 40 3 WIN 17-27

31 GB 50.5 (-14) over NE 9 27.5 PUSH 35-21

32 Den 35.5 (+11.5) over GB 34 13 WIN 31-24

33 Den 37.5 (-7) over Atl 26 4.5 WIN 34-19

34 STL 51 (-7) over Tn 9.5 34.5 Push 23-16

35 Bal 38 (-3) over NYG 29.5 5.5 WIN 34-7

36 NE 28.5 (+14) over STL 41 1.5 WIN 20-17

37 Oak 37 (-4) over TB 20.5 16.5 Loss 21-48


good luck.

 

[AR182]

thought that some might find this article interesting....

Jan. 23, 2006 Copyright ? Las Vegas Review-Journal

Pittsburgh established as 4-point favorite in Super Bowl XL

By MATT YOUMANS

REVIEW-JOURNAL

Although his last name is too long to fit on the marquee, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will be the featured star for the favored team in Super Bowl XL.

The Steelers opened as 3 1/2-point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks in the NFL's title game on Feb. 5 at Detroit. The line quickly moved to 4.

"Nobody is playing better than the Steelers right now, and they look like a team of destiny. They deserve to be favored," MGM Mirage sports book director Robert Walker said.

"It's going to be a really good matchup. It's something different. It will be interesting to see how they bet it, but I do believe the public will bet Pittsburgh."

The Steelers, who defeated the Denver Broncos 34-17 in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, have won seven successive games.

Roethlisberger passed for 275 yards and two touchdowns against the Broncos. At 23, he will be the second-youngest quarterback to start a Super Bowl. Dan Marino of the Miami Dolphins was slightly younger in Super Bowl XIX.

The Seahawks pounded the Carolina Panthers 34-14 in the NFC Championship Game as Shaun Alexander rushed for 132 yards and two touchdowns and Matt Hasselbeck passed for two scores.

Seattle was the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs but is now an underdog to a Pittsburgh team that was the AFC's No. 6 seed.

Walker said the point spread might move to 4 1/2 in favor of the Steelers, who won consecutive road playoff games over Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Denver.

"The Steelers' road to the Super Bowl was obviously a lot more impressive," Walker said.

"I'm not sure where the number will land, but if it goes anywhere, I think it will go up."

The total opened at 48 and dropped to 47 1/2. Pittsburgh is a minus-180 favorite on the money line to win straight-up.

Kelso Sturgeon, a longtime Las Vegas handicapper, said the Steelers are his pick to win a competitive game.

"I like Pittsburgh simply because of its defense," said Sturgeon, who credits Steelers coach Bill Cowher and defensive coordinator Dick ****** for developing schemes of "choreographed chaos."

"****** just wrecks whatever it is you want to do on offense. The Seahawks are in for a long day offensively, and the Steelers will be the most physical team they have played this season. I rate Hasselbeck and Roethlisberger pretty evenly, and Pittsburgh's one-two punch at running back is the equivalent of Alexander."

The odds on Pittsburgh to win the Super Bowl were 12-1 before the season, but they jumped as high as 45-1 after the Steelers lost three games in a row in December.

Seattle, coached by Mike Holmgren, opened as a 30-1 shot to win the championship.

New England was a 7-point favorite over Philadelphia in last year's Super Bowl, which the Patriots won 24-21. The game generated a record handle of $90.8 million at Nevada sports books.

Walker said this year's matchup also should attract a lot of wagering the next two weeks, with hundreds of proposition bets available.

But will the wagering threaten the $100 million mark?

"It's so hard to predict," Walker said, "but I'm optimistic."

Walker's prediction for the game: "I'm leaning toward Pittsburgh."

 

[AR182]

here is another article...

Columnist Jeff Haney: An early look at some unspectacular but profitable Super Bowl 'props' likely to hit the betting boards

LAS VEGAS SUN
JAN 23

With the Super Bowl less than two weeks away, the minds of sports bettors in Las Vegas are turning to the propositions -- or "props," meaning unique, offbeat wagering opportunities -- that sports books will be offering on the big game.

The really fun props involving over/unders on the statistics of individual players and the like will come later. So will those crazy "cross-sport" props that link various aspects of the Super Bowl to the day's baskeball, hockey and golf action.

In the early going, we're more concerned with some of the old standbys, the nuts-and-bolts props you can count on seeing on the betting boards each year.

These props might not be sexy or outrageously creative, but historically they have been profitable for sharp bettors ...

* Overtime

Depending on your method of analysis, the odds against the Super Bowl going into overtime are likely about 15-1 to 20-1. But if past years are any indication, bettors will have the opportunity to lay a much shorter price that the game will not go into overtime, probably in the neighborhood of minus-600 to minus-800.

That's an example of what gamblers call an "overlay," meaning a wager that offers favorable odds to the bettor.

For instance, last year at this time, the Palms sports book opened "no overtime" at minus-600 (risk $6 to win $1), though it was bet up quickly to minus-850. The Las Vegas Hilton opened the same prop at minus-700; and Harrah's and the Rio had it at minus-850. At any of those prices, I'd consider it to be among the very best bets in the casino.

The top price you'll see on "yes, the game will go into overtime" will be around 8-1 or 9-1.

The people who get excited about a 9-1 payout on the Super Bowl going into overtime must be the same people who get excited when they make a blackjack and it pays off at odds of 6-5.

* Total turnovers

Most teams that advance to the Super Bowl are fundamentally sound enough to take care of the football. I don't think this year will be an exception.

Typically the over/under on fumbles lost by both teams is set at 1 1/2. Last year, the Hilton opened "under 1 1/2" at minus-130 (risk $1.30 to win $1) with "over 1 1/2" even money.

The over/under on interceptions by both teams is usually 2 1/2 with a heavier premium on the under. Last year at the Hilton, the under was minus-180, the over plus-150.

Because both of these props went "over" last year (there were two lost fumbles and three interceptions), I expect to find more attractive prices when I bet them "under" this year.

* Will either team score in the last two minutes of the first half?

The odds on this prop are usually a function of the total number of points both teams are expected to score in the game. For example, two years ago the over/ under in the Super Bowl between the Panthers and the Patriots was 38 1/2 points, and the odds on "yes, there will be a score in the last two minutes of the first half" were minus-200.

Last year, the over/under in the game between the Patriots and the Eagles was 47 points, and the odds that there would be a score in the last two minutes of the first half were higher, at minus-250.

As long as you figure about 50 points will be scored in the Super Bowl (a reasonable assumption), in his 2001 book "Beat the Sports Books," author Dan Gordon makes a compelling case for betting that there will be a score in the last two minutes of the first half at odds of minus-220 to minus-235.

I predict those odds will be available this year.


???

The Venetian and the Las Vegas Hilton sports books recently released their odds to win next year's Super Bowl, the XLIst, scheduled for Feb. 4, 2007, in Miami.

The Venetian installed the Colts as 4-1 favorites, followed by the Patriots (8-1), the Broncos (12-1), the Cincinnati Bengals (14-1) and the Seahawks (14-1). The Houston Texans are the longest shot on the board at 250-1.

The Hilton opened the Colts at 5-2, followed by the Patriots (10-1), the Chargers (10-1), the Steelers (12-1), the Bengals (15-1) and the Broncos (15-1). The San Francisco 49ers and the New Orleans Saints were the longest shots at 200-1 each.

In college football, the Hilton opened Ohio State a 5-1 favorite to win the 2007 BCS title, followed by Notre Dame (6-1), Oklahoma (6-1), USC (7-1), defending champ Texas (10-1), LSU (12-1) and Florida (12-1).

 

[Penguinfan]

I have it 38-24 (using the point system in the first post in the thread) Pittsburgh using the sortable stats at NFL.com. I could be off a bit because some (to me anyway) leave a bit to be interpreted.

What I did find very interesting is most of the categories Pittsburgh won they won by a small margain, but most of the ones Seattle won they won by a lot.

 

[AR182]

pf,

this is what i got.....


10 If team has won the Super Bowl in last 3 years.. neither

8 if an opponent is going to their first Super Bowl...pitt.

8 to the team that allows fewer defensive rushes...pitt.

7 give to team with most offensive rushes...seattle

7 award the team with best overall record (straight up)...seattle

5 to the team with the lowest def. rush average per carry...seattle

4 give 4 pts. to the team with the better ATS record....pitt.

4 to the team that has the superior NET penalty yards....?

4 to the team with the best NET kick-punt TD returns...?

3.5 team with the best yds per pass attempt....pitt.

3.5 to the team that gave up the fewest points....pitt.

3.5 allowed the fewest rushing TD's....seattle

3 award 3 points to the team with the most sacks...seattle

2.5 team with the fewest offensive pass attempts....pitt.

2 team with the best NET punts (total) on the season....pitt.

1.5 add to the team with the best avg. per off. rush....seattle

1 add 1 to the team with the best completion percent...seattle

there are 2 i can't find & i might have made a mistake......my calculations are...

seattle.....28
pitt.........31.5

what do you have for the 2 i can't find ?

 

[Penguinfan]

Pittsburgh on the TD kick returns (4 points) and I also left the penalty one blank.

Chances are I made a mistake looking back and forth at the points

 

[c20916]

For most offensive rushes, is that attempts or yards? If it's attempts that would be Pitt, if it's yards it's Seattle.

For team with the lowest Def Rush avg per carry I have Pitt 3.4 v Seattle 3.6

Better ATS record, I have Seattle at 10-5-1, and Pitt at 9-7

I don't know what net penalty yards are, but total penalty yards I have Pitt with 876 and seattle with 846 giving the edge to Seattle.

Net Kick-Punt TD's I have Pitt with 1 Punt-Kick TD ea and none against, and Seattle I have one Kick TD against and none for so adv Pitt

I have

34.5 Pitt
26 Seattle

with the 7 points pending on how you determine most offensive rushes, if it's attempts I have Pitt with a big margin, if it's Seattle then I have Pitt by 1.5.

 

[AR182]

c20916,

thanks for joining in....

you are correct with pitt. having the lower def. average per carry...

according to phil steele...

pitt. ats is 12-7..........63.1%
seattle ats is 11-6-1....64.7%

i can't find penalty yards...but my interpretation of net yards, & it may wrong is.... what the penalty yards are for the team minus the penalty yards of their opponents....

pf agrees with you so you're both probably right...

we're still missing an answer for one category..which is net penalty yards...

my new nunbers are....

pitt.........36.5
seattle.....27

 

[texasjim]

AR182 - Maybe this might help:
SEATTLE - Current Season Performance
Straight Up Against Spread Team Opponent
W-L Units W-L O-U Score Half Yards YPP TO Score Half Yards YPP TO
All Games 15-3 +11.3 11-6 11-7 28.1 14.9 368.9 (5.9) 1.1 16.4 7.4 309.4 (5.1) 1.8
Road Games 5-3 +2.3 3-4 7-1 26.9 16.4 343.6 (5.8) 0.9 21.0 10.4 341.9 (5.3) 2.1
Last 3 Games 2-1 +1 2-0 1-2 23.7 11.3 324.0 (5) 1.7 15.7 7.7 271.7 (4.5) 2.7
Dome Games 1-0 +1.3 1-0 1-0 37.0 24.0 433.0 (6.4) 0.0 31.0 21.0 386.0 (6.8) 2.0


SEATTLE - Current Season Statistics
Rushing Passing Total
PPG Half FD TOP ATT-YDS YPR CMP-ATT PCT YDS PYA ATT-YDS YPP YPPT
Offense (All Games) 28.1 14.9 22.4 30:23 33-154 (4.6) 19-29 64.8% 215 (7.3) 63-369 (5.9) (13.1)
Opponents Defensive Avg. 22.3 11.6 18.3 30:03 28-116 (4.1) 19-32 60.5% 207 (6.5) 60-322 (5.4) (14.5)
Offense Road Games 26.9 16.4 20.9 28:08 30-135 (4.4) 19-29 64.4% 209 (7.2) 60-344 (5.8) (12.8)
Defense (All Games) 16.4 7.4 17.6 30:36 25-89 (3.5) 20-36 57.1% 220 (6.2) 61-309 (5.1) (18.9)
Opponents Offensive Avg. 20.5 10.5 18 30:24 27-107 (3.9) 20-33 59.5% 208 (6.3) 60-315 (5.2) (15.4)
Defense Road Games 21.0 10.4 20.1 32:33 27-91 (3.4) 22-37 57.7% 251 (6.7) 65-342 (5.3) (16.3)


SEATTLE - Turnovers, Penalties and Special Teams Statistics
Turnovers Lost Third Downs Fourth Downs Kickoff Returns Punt Returns Penalties
INT FL TO DIFF #-MADE PCT #-MADE PCT KR-YDS YPKR PR-YDS YPPR PEN-YDS
Stats For (All Games) 0.6 0.5 1.1 0.7 12-5 40.6% 0-0 77.8% 4-80 (21.7) 2-10 (4.9) 6-49
Opponents Avg. Stats Against 0.9 0.8 1.7 1.9 13-5 36.7% 1-0 48.2% 4-91 (22.5) 19-3 (7.3) 7-45
Stats For (Road Games) 0.5 0.4 0.9 1.2 11-4 35.9% 0-0 66.7% 4-90 (21.2) 2-11 (7) 5-49
Stats Against (All Games) 1.1 0.7 1.8 15-5 36.3% 1-1 60.9% 5-113 (21.7) 2-22 (9.4) 7-45
Opponents Avg. Stats For 1 0.8 1.8 14-5 37.3% 1-0 46.3% 4-95 (21.9) 19-2 (7.8) 7-49
Stats Against (Road Games) 1.2 0.9 2.1 15-6 44.1% 1-1 63.6% 5-118 (23) 3-21 (7.5) 6-45



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH - Current Season Performance
Straight Up Against Spread Team Opponent
W-L Units W-L O-U Score Half Yards YPP TO Score Half Yards YPP TO
All Games 14-5 +8.9 12-7 10-8 25.0 14.3 323.6 (5.5) 1.3 16.3 7.9 288.2 (4.9) 1.9
Road Games 9-2 +9.4 9-2 3-8 23.9 13.5 311.5 (5.5) 1.1 13.5 6.5 270.9 (4.8) 1.9
Last 3 Games 3-0 +5.6 3-0 2-1 28.7 17.3 333.0 (5.5) 0.7 17.3 7.7 313.3 (5.7) 2.0
Dome Games 2-1 +3.2 2-1 0-3 15.3 10.3 255.7 (4.5) 1.7 15.7 7.3 285.3 (5.5) 1.3


PITTSBURGH - Current Season Statistics
Rushing Passing Total
PPG Half FD TOP ATT-YDS YPR CMP-ATT PCT YDS PYA ATT-YDS YPP YPPT
Offense (All Games) 25.0 14.3 18.8 31:59 35-135 (3.9) 15-24 61.1% 188 (7.9) 58-324 (5.5) (12.9)
Opponents Defensive Avg. 20 10 18.5 30:03 28-114 (4.1) 19-32 60.4% 202 (6.4) 60-316 (5.3) (15.8)
Offense Road Games 23.9 13.5 17.9 32:24 34-133 (3.9) 15-23 63.7% 178 (7.8) 57-311 (5.5) (13)
Defense (All Games) 16.3 7.9 17.1 28:46 24-85 (3.5) 20-35 57.8% 204 (5.9) 59-288 (4.9) (17.7)
Opponents Offensive Avg. 20.7 10.6 18.7 30:12 27-108 (3.9) 20-33 61.7% 209 (6.4) 60-317 (5.3) (15.3)
Defense Road Games 13.5 6.5 16.4 28:35 23-83 (3.6) 19-34 57.7% 188 (5.6) 57-271 (4.8) (20)


PITTSBURGH - Turnovers, Penalties and Special Teams Statistics
Turnovers Lost Third Downs Fourth Downs Kickoff Returns Punt Returns Penalties
INT FL TO DIFF #-MADE PCT #-MADE PCT KR-YDS YPKR PR-YDS YPPR PEN-YDS
Stats For (All Games) 0.8 0.5 1.3 0.6 12-5 38.6% 1-0 50.0% 3-74 (21.5) 3-29 (10.3) 6-59
Opponents Avg. Stats Against 1.1 0.7 1.8 2.1 13-5 38.4% 1-0 46.5% 4-93 (21.8) 20-2 (8.7) 7-67
Stats For (Road Games) 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.8 12-5 39.7% 1-0 57.1% 3-64 (19.6) 3-27 (9.2) 7-59
Stats Against (All Games) 1.0 0.9 1.9 14-6 40.1% 1-0 39.1% 5-104 (21.6) 2-18 (8.5) 7-67
Opponents Avg. Stats For 1 0.7 1.7 13-5 38.8% 1-0 47.4% 4-90 (22.2) 19-2 (8.3) 7-59
Stats Against (Road Games) 1.1 0.8 1.9 14-5 37.2% 1-1 42.9% 5-101 (21) 2-21 (9.2) 8-67


Average power rating of opponents played: SEATTLE 18.2, PITTSBURGH 20.2



Current Season Results And Upcoming Games
Here are the most recent results and upcoming schedules for the two teams involved. Lines, total, game scores, results versus the spread, straight up and against the total are all displayed.
SEATTLE - Season Results
Date Opponent Score SU Line ATS Tot. O/U
9/11/2005 @ JACKSONVILLE 14-26 L 3 L 39 O
9/18/2005 ATLANTA 21-18 W -2 W 43 U
9/25/2005 ARIZONA 37-12 W -6 W 42 O
10/2/2005 @ WASHINGTON 17-20 L 2 L 36.5 O
10/9/2005 @ ST LOUIS 37-31 W 3 W 47.5 O
10/16/2005 HOUSTON 42-10 W -9 W 44 O
10/23/2005 DALLAS 13-10 W -4.5 L 44 U
11/6/2005 @ ARIZONA 33-19 W -4.5 W 42 O
11/13/2005 ST LOUIS 31-16 W -6 W 50 U
11/20/2005 @ SAN FRANCISCO 27-25 W -12.5 L 41 O
11/27/2005 NY GIANTS 24-21 W -4.5 L 47.5 U
12/5/2005 @ PHILADELPHIA 42-0 W -3.5 W 39.5 O
12/11/2005 SAN FRANCISCO 41-3 W -16 W 43 O
12/18/2005 @ TENNESSEE 28-24 W -7 L 45 O
12/24/2005 INDIANAPOLIS 28-13 W -10 W 43.5 U
1/1/2006 @ GREEN BAY 17-23 L 6 T 41 U
1/14/2006 WASHINGTON 20-10 W -9.5 W 41 U
1/22/2006 CAROLINA 34-14 W -4 W 43.5 O
2/5/2006 *PITTSBURGH

PITTSBURGH - Season Results
Date Opponent Score SU Line ATS Tot. O/U
9/11/2005 TENNESSEE 34-7 W -7 W 39.5 O
9/18/2005 @ HOUSTON 27-7 W -4.5 W 37.5 U
9/25/2005 NEW ENGLAND 20-23 L -3 L 42 O
10/10/2005 @ SAN DIEGO 24-22 W 3.5 W 47 U
10/16/2005 JACKSONVILLE 17-23 L -3 L 33 O
10/23/2005 @ CINCINNATI 27-13 W 1.5 W 43 U
10/31/2005 BALTIMORE 20-19 W -12.5 L 35 O
11/6/2005 @ GREEN BAY 20-10 W -3 W 38.5 U
11/13/2005 CLEVELAND 34-21 W -7 W 34.5 O
11/20/2005 @ BALTIMORE 13-16 L -3.5 L 33.5 U
11/28/2005 @ INDIANAPOLIS 7-26 L 8 L 47.5 U
12/4/2005 CINCINNATI 31-38 L -3 L 41 O
12/11/2005 CHICAGO 21-9 W -6.5 W 30 P
12/18/2005 @ MINNESOTA 18-3 W -4.5 W 40 U
12/24/2005 @ CLEVELAND 41-0 W -6.5 W 33 O
1/1/2006 DETROIT 35-21 W -16.5 L 36.5 O
1/8/2006 @ CINCINNATI 31-17 W -3 W 46.5 O
1/15/2006 @ INDIANAPOLIS 21-18 W 10 W 48 U
1/22/2006 @ DENVER 34-17 W 3 W 40.5 O
2/5/2006 *SEATTLE

 

[AR182]

thanks texasjim...appreciate it..


somebody in another forum gave me this info....

pit has 155 yds less than opp and sea has 63 yds less... that would give pit a net yd advantage...since the less pen yds the better...

pit has +2 PR +KR td's and sea -1...
that would give pit the net advantage in that area also...

my numbers are now....

pitt......40.5
seattle..27

 

[c20916]

AR, the ATS you show includes the playoffs, if I am not mistaken these stats are for regular season only, so the advantage would go to Seattle with the 10-5-1 record v 9-7

 

[AR182]

c2,

i know but i corrected it & gave the ats credit to seattle.....so i'm pretty sure that my final numbers are correct....

 

[c20916]

Stats that I read in a magazine that I thought were interesting:

The team that is the higher playoff seed is just 1-7-2 ATS in the last ten Super Bowls. (I wonder how many were underdogs like this year)

The team with the better record going into the game is 27-9 SU.

The SU winner is 31-5-3 ATS in the 39 previous super bowls, with two of the losses having occurred in the most current back to back super bowls.

There have been 46.05 total PPG in the super bowls

In nine domed SB games the total points scored per game is 48.6

The over is 9-4 in the last 13 SB's.

 

[AR182]

interesting article...

Pittsburgh stealing favorite tag from Seattle no fluke

By Matty O'Shea
Pregame.com GM of Content

The Pittsburgh Steelers certainly appear to be a team of destiny after rolling through Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Denver en route to Detroit as the favorites to win Super Bowl XL. But the Steelers (-4) also have history on their side since the oddsmakers seem to know what they're doing when they make a lower seed the favorite in the NFL's championship game.

Pittsburgh became the first #6 seed to advance all the way to the Super Bowl and only the second team to win three straight road games in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Seattle had a much easier road, facing the NFC's fifth and sixth seeds at home to earn a trip to Detroit.

Each team's seeding means very little at this stage of the postseason, according to Senior Oddsmaker Mike Seba of Las Vegas Sports Consultants. Instead, Seba said he based his opening line of -4 ? on power ratings more than anything else.

"It's kind of like a mirage," Seba said about the seedings. "I would have at least five teams from the AFC ranked higher than Seattle (based on power ratings). You can even make the case that San Diego was a better team than Seattle.

"Cincinnati was a three seed and probably shouldn't have been. Anybody watching (the Steelers) play, they were no worse than a three seed."

Seba also noted that Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger's knee injury earlier in the season played a big role in where the Steelers ultimately ended up at 11-5, yet the team's perseverance has helped overcome the odds. They lost two games with backup QB Tommy Maddox filling in for Roethlisberger and another trying to rush him back into action against Indianapolis. Still, Pittsburgh tied the Bengals atop the division and simply lost a tiebreaker to fall from #3 to #6.

Jason Been, a fellow oddsmaker at LVSC, said the Steelers were an easy choice to make favorites based on both their strong play on the road this postseason and their popularity with bettors as four-time Super Bowl champions.

"People are going to be betting Pittsburgh," Been said. "Pittsburgh has become a public team. All the tourists will probably be betting the Steelers. All of us had them at -3 ? or -4. We wanted to send out a solid number so we went with -4. I could see it going to -4 ? though."

The AFC was also perceived as a much stronger conference this year, led by the Colts, Broncos, Bengals and two-time defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots. Combine that with the fact that the Seahawks played in the weak NFC West, where the other teams in the division totaled the same amount of wins between them (going 15-33) as Seattle has going into the Super Bowl (15-3), and you can definitely understand why the Steelers have an edge.

"The AFC is much better than the NFC," Been said. "And Seattle had a lot of garbage teams in their division."

Of course there are some other factors hurting Seattle. The Seahawks played just five teams with winning records during the regular season, winning three of those games, with two of them decided by just a field goal. Plus, if you remove Seattle's blowout victory against a depleted Philadelphia Eagles team, the team's other seven road games had a point differential of a paltry +9 points. Home field was an enormous advantage for the Seahawks - who improved to 10-0 at Qwest Field with two playoff wins there - and will be sorely missed.

Only four times in NFL history has the top seed from one conference been an underdog against a lower seed from the other conference. Of those four times, one of the underdogs won the game straight-up (the 1982 Washington Redskins in Super Bowl XVII) while two others covered the spread (the Eagles in 2005 and Cincinnati Bengals in 1989). The exception is the Baltimore Ravens, who covered as three-point favorites in 2001. The AFC's fourth-seeded Ravens crushed the NFC's top-seeded New York Giants 34-7 in Super Bowl XXXV.

Been said he could see the Steelers following Baltimore's lead with a potential rout happening, but he also wouldn't rule out the possibility of a classic finish deciding the game either.

"Pittsburgh's either going to blow them out, or it will come down to the wire, with the team who has the ball last winning," he said.

Since the oddsmaker's job isn't to have an opinion on the game but rather to get equal action on both sides, that's saying a lot.

 

[AR182]

here's an interesting article that i just read....


The Steelers knocked off the top three seeds to get to the Super Bowl. (AP)

Betting remains one-sided on Steelers

By Stephen Nover
Mon, Jan 30, 2006


Recently The Gold Sheet newsletter ranked the Giants-Ravens game in 2000 as the worst of the 39 Super Bowls.

Could this season?s Seahawks-Steelers matchup turn out just as bad?

Betting patterns indicate it?s possible. All the money came on the Ravens in Super Bowl XXXV and the bettors were right. The Ravens dominated the Giants 34-7, in what was a very boring non-contest.

The Giants hadn?t won a playoff game in seven years prior to that. The Seahawks have won one road playoff game in their franchise history ? back in 1983.

So far this year, all the money has been on the Steelers. Many places opened Pittsburgh either -3 or -3 ?. The Steelers are now -4, with some books up to -4 ?.

?We?re going to need Seattle in a big way,? said Bob Scucci, race and sportsbook director at the Stardust Hotel, during the Monday morning Stardust Line radio show. ?There are not a lot of believers in Seattle.?

Scucci said the ratio of tickets written on Pittsburgh is 5-1. He wouldn?t be surprised if the game closes Pittsburgh -5 ?.

?Once it gets off 4 the floodgates open up,? he said. ?The key is how much bookmakers take at 4 before getting off.?

What?s scary for bookmakers is that both wise guys and recreational bettors are on Pittsburgh. It was sharp money that pushed the Steelers up.

Scucci estimates 70 percent of the action is still to come. That could be a conservative estimate. Other bookmakers say 90 percent of the bets come during the final four days. Most of this handle comes from the general public.

And the general public likes the Steelers.

The Steelers put together masterpieces in beating the Colts and Broncos on the road. The Seahawks played a far easier schedule and are unproven on the road. They could prove prey to the superior AFC club, just like the Giants were to the Ravens in 2000.

If the line does manage to climb to 5 ? or even 6, would the wiseguys come back on the Seahawks, trying to middle the game since they initially laid 3?

Professional gambler Dave Malinsky doesn?t think so.

?It?s a sincere opinion,? he said about the sharps liking the Steelers in this matchup. ?You don?t lay a 4 looking for a middle.?

So you better have solid reasons if you like Seattle. This isn?t the time to just play numbers believing you have value if you grab the Seahawks at post.

Some have a clear perception the Steelers will be loose having experienced big games before, while the Seahawks could come out tight. They feel the Seahawks are vulnerable, stepping up in class having not faced a major challenge away from home.

The Seahawks have yet to beat a team with a winning record as the visitors. Seattle also has lost and failed to cover six of its past seven following a bye week.

The Steelers, on the other hand, are the best road team in the NFL having won 16 of their last 18 away games. They won nine road games this season, the first in history to accomplish the feat.

Pittsburgh ranked No. 3 in rush defense. Their physical 3-4 defense can cause problems for Shaun Alexander, who has rushed for more than 45 yards just once in four playoff games. Seattle led the NFL in scoring, averaging 28.3 points a game.

However, Seattle detractors can point out those statistics were padded by the Seahawks playing six games against weak division foes San Francisco, St. Louis and Arizona. The Seahawks averaged 34 points against those teams.

Maybe, in hindsight, Pittsburgh -6 instead of -4 would have been the best opening number. That way there probably would have been more two-way action going.

The problem though, with Super Bowls that take two weeks to play instead of one week, is there?s a tendency to overanalyze. Don?t believe for one second that the Steelers are a true No. 6 seed. They probably win at least two more games if Ben Roethlisberger doesn?t get hurt.

But Seattle definitely is the NFC?s top seed. We?re talking about a Seahawks team that has the best offensive line left side, a top-three running back in Alexander, a good quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck, an experienced Super Bowl coach, and solid defense that improved during the second half of the season.

It comes down to how many points will it take for you to jump on Seattle?

 

[Clem D]

Wow

Im on Seattle but some of those articles are making me think..

 

[AR182]

clem.....

i took a 10*on pitt-3(130) when the lines first came out for a few reasons....i was hoping to play a middle by taking seattle + whatever i can get.....

but now i'm not so sure that i will go for a middle....

i basically made 2 large bets (for me) during the playoffs...10*on seattle vs.wash. & a 15*on seattle vs. carolina because i thought that both situations were perfect for seattle......but i am very impressed on how pitt. has played during the playoffs & on the road the whole season.....

i can't get out of my mind that pitt. only gives up an average of 13.5 points per game on the road this year while seattle gives up 21 points per game on the road.......

i also think that pitt's 3-4 defense may cause seattle some problems since they haven't played too many teams with that type of defense.....

but still not definite what i'm doing....

 

[Kazaam]

Ar,

Barring a total blow-up by Pitt can you see Seat winning straight up? :mj03:

 

[edludes]

Hang on Clem,its going to be a Superbowl to remember,with the majority losing their shirts.You are on the right side.The Seahawks will play their best game on Sunday,Bill Cowhead and the 23 yr old QB will be scratching their heads wondering what hit them Sunday night.So will the gambling public.No one is giving Seattle credit,and they're the better side.

 

[MrChristo]

Plus, if you remove Seattle's blowout victory against a depleted Philadelphia Eagles team, the team's other seven road games had a point differential of a paltry +9 points.

Their defense turns to jelly on the road...given up;
23 @ GB (Nothing to play for...still...)
24 @ Tenn!
0 @ Philli (one of the worst 11 men on offense you will ever see tho!)
25 @ SF!!!
19 @ 'Zona
31 @ S.L.
20 @ Washington
26 @ Jax.

There's some pretty average performances in that lot!...scaring me off the under, would definately make me think twice about taking Seattle.