Super Bowl 40 - Scout's Inc's take

BobbyBlueChip

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Belly of the Beast
Super QBs taking more control By Scouts, Inc.


Why To Watch
These teams are more similar than people think. They both love to run the football with excellent backs behind big and physical offensive lines. They both play solid defense. And they both have improving quarterbacks who understand their offensive systems. Both Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Hasselbeck are gaining more and more freedom from their head coaches to take the game into their hands.
Pittsburgh is the first No. 6 seed to play in the Super Bowl, and Seattle is making its first trip to the title game in the franchise's 30-year history. These teams are well-coached, and both do a superb job of not only putting together creative game plans but also making great adjustments during the game. Neither team is satisfied with just being in Detroit. They expect to win the game. Marquee players, great coaches and two hungry teams -- there's a lot to like in this matchup.


When the Seahawks have the ball
Rushing A healthy Shaun Alexander makes this Seattle running game potent and able to take over a game. However, the Pittsburgh defensive line, led by NT Casey Hampton, is unbelievably physical in its two-gap, read-and-react schemes. The Steelers' linemen can hold up at the point of attack versus a good Seattle offensive line.
Alexander loves the cut-back run or counter, especially those in which he starts to the right behind FB Mack Strong. Most defenses key on Strong as a lead isolation blocker and wind up overpursuing to the hole. That allows Alexander to cut back to the left side behind the best blocking tandem in the league, LOT Walter Jones and LOG Steve Hutchinson. Both do a great job of sealing off the backside.

While the Steelers' linebackers are aggressive and can get caught out of position, the defensive line will not. It will be difficult to move them out of the hole, and cut-back runs versus this front will be difficult. This also is an excellent tackling Steelers defense, and the corners and safeties hit like linebackers. All the yards after contact Alexander usually gets will be tough to come by against the physical Pittsburgh run defense.
FB Strong will need to have a huge game in terms of making contact with ILBs Larry Foote and James Farrior and SS Troy Polamalu. His lead blocks are the key to Alexander breaking some big runs on the second level.

Another big challenge for Hasselbeck will be his ability to audible when he recognizes the Pittsburgh defensive scheme or a blitz. A lot of Alexander's big plays come as the result of audibles and checkoffs from passing plays into running plays.

Passing:
QB Hasselbeck has just about mastered Mike Holmgren's complicated West Coast offense. This week he'll face an equally complicated, blitz-heavy Pittsburgh defense that will give him a variety of looks. His ability to read and adjust at the line will be extremely important. He has done an excellent job all season of checking out of bad plays. If he makes the proper reads and checks at the line, there are big plays to be made vs. a Pittsburgh secondary that struggles in coverage.
Hasselbeck has a lot of weapons at his disposal, and none are as important as the now-healthy WR Darrell Jackson. WRs Joe Jurevicius and Bobby Engram have stepped up and overperformed this season, and TE Jerramy Stevens is one of the more underrated players in the NFL at his position.

Holmgren likes to spread the field with multiple-receiver sets, which should be able to slow down the edge pressure the Steelers get from OLBs Joey Porter and Clark Haggans. Seattle would like to force both Porter and Haggans into more coverage situations, where they tend to struggle. Pittsburgh is very good in its Cover 2 scheme but struggles when forced to match up man-to-man. The Steelers are much more effective when they can play zone behind the blitz.

When Pittsburgh is in Cover 2, Hasselbeck will try to attack the intermediate perimeter and the deep middle of the field. You can also expect to see Pittsburgh play some Cover 3, with FS Chris Hope manning the middle and the two cornerbacks the deep outer thirds. This coverage gives SS Polamalu the ability to blitz and freelance. Hasselbeck must locate Polamalu on every play before the snap. If Seattle's pass protection holds up vs. the blitz-happy Steelers -- and that is a big "if" -- Hasselbeck will be able to move the ball through the air.

When the Steelers have the ball
Rushing:
While Seattle's defense does not look particularly good statistically against the run, the Seahawks really have improved in the second half of the season. They are giving up less than 60 yards on the ground per game over the last month and a half.
We know that Pittsburgh will run the football, but suddenly, in the last couple of weeks, we don't know when. The Steelers are no longer a run-first, pass-second offense. It is not automatic anymore that they will run on first down. When they do pound the ball, they will do it with an inside/outside approach featuring Jerome Bettis and Willie Parker. The more the Steelers throw early, the better chance they have to coax the Seahawks into some nickel packages, which makes their run defense softer.

Seattle doesn't have a big, physical front seven, but they are disciplined in their gap responsibilities. The linebackers also do an excellent job of stepping up and filling against the run, especially MLB Lofa Tatupu. Also, SS Michael Boulware, a former linebacker, can move down into the box and play the run. However, if Roethlisberger throws often, Boulware might be forced to sit back in coverage.
The outside run game with Parker could struggle against Seattle, because the Seahawks' linebackers all can run and get to the outside. This could be a big final game for Bettis. He likely will get 20 carries to try to wear down Seattle's defensive front. If the Steelers get any kind of an early lead, they will sit on the ball and ride Bettis' big body to victory.

Passing: With Roethlisberger maturing at a rapid pace, the Steelers' coaches are now more comfortable putting the game in his hands. His composure has been excellent, and he is doing a great job of seeing the entire field. He's even looking off defensive backs now, freezing them and getting better throwing lanes.
As he has done throughout the playoffs, Roethlisberger will try to attack the deep middle of the field and expose Seattle safeties Boulware and Marquand Manuel. The Seahawks really miss Ken Hamlin, and athletic tight ends who can stretch the field give them problems. Pittsburgh has one of those athletic tight ends in rookie Heath Miller.

The Steelers will need good pass protection from their offensive line and good blitz pickup from their backs, because Seattle does a nice job of attacking with its linebackers, particularly MLB Tatupu and fellow rookie OLB LeRoy Hill. Roethlisberger has done an excellent job in the playoffs of not making mistakes and not gambling on risky throws. He knows how to dump the ball off or throw it away. He won't see a very complicated Seattle defense with exotic looks, but he will see a fundamentally sound unit that flies to the ball, tackles well and communicates effectively.
Pittsburgh is using all its weapons in the passing game and can spread Seattle out with three- and four-receiver sets. That will force Seattle into nickel schemes and allow the Steelers to come back and pound the ball in the running game against a softer defense. Pittsburgh is no longer a one-dimensional run offense with a caretaker quarterback. Expect a 50-50 run-pass ratio against Seattle, and Pittsburgh might throw a lot on first down. Expect to see some surprises from this passing game.
 

BobbyBlueChip

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Belly of the Beast
Sunday, February 5, 2006
Take 2: Seahawks vs. Steelers By Scouts, Inc.

Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance scouting report on this week's matchup between the Seahawks and Steelers. Now they're back with a second look.

In the NFC Championship Game, Seattle RB Shaun Alexander put to rest any doubts about his health. His toughness was questioned after leaving in the divisional round with a concussion, but he ran extremely hard against Carolina. He will have to show that same toughness against a Pittsburgh defense that will be looking to hit him early and often.

Of Pittsburgh's linebackers, James Farrior is the most physical versus the run. He is a physical, take-on player but will have to rely a little more on his quickness to get over and make plays. Seattle loves to run away from the strong side of the formation more than any team Pittsburgh has faced this season. Farrior and the Pittsburgh defense will also have to maintain good leverage and not overpursue, as Alexander loves to go right before cutting back to the left side and getting in behind LOT Walter Jones and LOG Steve Hutchinson.
? One of the main reasons Pittsburgh's offense has looked more explosive in the postseason is because of production from unexpected places. Coming into the playoffs, there was some concern about Pittsburgh's passing attack and its lack of weapons. With teams focusing their attention on WR Hines Ward and rookie TE Heath Miller, someone was going to have to step up. That player has been WR Cedrick Wilson, who had pretty much been a free-agent bust prior to the playoffs. Now, with teams focused solely on Ward and Miller, Wilson has come up with two touchdowns in the postseason. That is exactly two more touchdown receptions than Wilson had during the regular season. Wilson has also had his two highest yardage outputs in the postseason, including a 92-yard day in the AFC Championship Game at Denver.

In the Super Bowl, Seattle will try to get its best DC, Marcus Trufant, matched up on Ward. This will again give Wilson some one-on-one opportunities versus Seattle LDC Andre Dyson. Wilson has a chance to be the X factor for Pittsburgh's offense come Super Bowl Sunday.
? In the past two weeks, Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt has done an excellent job of using the pass to set up the run. Expect Pittsburgh to come out with a similar game plan in the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh's offense has been explosive in the playoffs, and a big part of that has been QB Ben Roethlisberger's ability to find a rhythm early. It also appears that Pittsburgh's coaching staff has opened up the offense.

Against Denver, the Steelers did not get much out of their ground game, and Big Ben put the team on his back and carried it to the win. He is the first quarterback since 1970 to play in conference championship games in his first two seasons. Roethlisberger is carrying a 124.0 passer rating through three playoff games and it will be him -- not the Pittsburgh ground game -- that will be the deciding factor in whether the team gets its first Super Bowl title under Bill Cowher.

? The most interesting battle in this game will be played up front. Although the only two players we hear about on Seattle's offensive line are Jones and Hutchinson, the entire group has been outstanding this season. Last week, Seattle's offensive line dominated Carolina's front four. The Pittsburgh front seven will pose different problems, though. Because of the Steelers' sophisticated blitz schemes, you not only have to play well up front physically, but you must be prepared mentally.

Pittsburgh is only the fourth team Seattle has played this year (Dallas, San Francisco, Houston) that plays a 3-4. Look for Pittsburgh to again bring multiple zone blitz packages against this Seattle offensive line. Seattle will have extensive preparation for Pittsburgh's blitz package, but defensive coordinator Dick ****** does an excellent job of mixing them up. The unit that wins this battle in the trenches will give its team an excellent chance of coming out on top.

? The three-wide receiver set is more of a passing formation, but Seattle also runs the ball very well with this personnel grouping. Seattle uses the West Coast offense, and it is based on a rhythmic and timed passing attack. Pittsburgh likes to bring a lot of blitz pressure, and in the three-wide receiver package, Seattle will at least be able to spread Pittsburgh out and force the blitz pressure to come from further away from the line of scrimmage. This grouping will also allow Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck to use more three-step drops and quick throws to beat the blitz.

The running game will spread out Pittsburgh's defense and not allow the Steelers to load up eight defenders in the box in an effort to stop Alexander. The only down side to the three-wide receiver package for Seattle is that it takes FB Mack Strong off the field. Though Strong has played a major role in the success of Seattle's run game, the Seahawks are not going to be able to line up in the "I" and pound it at the interior of Pittsburgh's defense. For that reason, expect Strong to play a lesser role but for Seattle to still be able to run the ball effectively.

Pittsburgh's Miller has seven receptions for 107 yards and one TD in three playoff games. He has played a key role in the team's fast starts, and his ability to stretch the middle of the field has opened up the entire offense. With FS Ken Hamlin out, Seattle's most vulnerable area is the middle of its secondary. FS Marquand Manuel is a "try hard" player who is physical versus the run but struggles at times in coverage.

Seattle TE Jerramy Stevens caught six passes last week for 66 yards and one TD. Stevens is a big, athletic target in the passing game. Because Pittsburgh likes to bring pressure, Stevens will be the hot receiver in certain situations. When the Steelers blitz up the middle, Stevens will have the opportunity to slip in behind the linebackers and in front of FS Chris Hope.

? Pittsburgh is known for its defense, but we don't hear much about the unheralded Seattle defense -- even though it shut down Carolina WR Steve Smith last week. Up front, defensive linemen Bryce Fisher and Rocky Bernard have been excellent. Seattle boasts two of the three best rookie linebackers in the NFL in Lofa Tatupu and LeRoy Hill.

The main focus of the Seahawks' front seven will be getting off the ball quickly and trying to penetrate up the field. It does not want to get in a fistfight with this Pittsburgh offense. For that reason, look for Seattle to do a little more stunting and one-gap penetrating versus an extremely physical Pittsburgh offensive line.

? A big part of Pittsburgh's defensive success in the playoffs has been the play of Casey Hampton. As a nose tackle, he gets very little credit for the overall play of the defense, but you always know he is getting his job done because the people around him are making a ton of plays. In the past two weeks, he has dominated Colts OC Jeff Saturday and Broncos OC Tom Nalen. Saturday and Nalen are two of the premier centers in the AFC.

Tobeck is a veteran center who understands blocking angles, but like Nalen and Saturday, is not a real stout player at the point of attack. If Tobeck can't handle Hampton one-on-one, it will force the Seahawks to double with ROG Chris Gray. This will only open up more holes for the Pittsburgh defenders to run through. For Seattle to run the ball effectively, Tobeck is going to have to play one of the best games of his career and handle the massive Hampton one-on-one at the point of attack.

Special Teams
The Seahawks' porous cover units have gotten worse in the playoffs. They gave up a punt return TD to Steve Smith in the NFC Championship Game and will face the ever-dangerous Antwaan Randle El come Super Bowl Sunday. Randle El has the return skills to bust this game wide open.
Seattle has used multiple punt return men this season. In the NFC Championship Game, the team went with Peter Warrick. Although he didn't provide much spark, he did secure the ball. Look for Warrick to keep the punt return duties.

The kicking game edge also goes to Pittsburgh. Jeff Reed hit both of his attempts against Denver from 40-plus yards. PT Chris Gardocki was the second-half MVP, keeping Denver pinned deep inside its own territory. Gardocki is a left-footed punter, which can give the punt return man trouble because of the reverse spin on the ball. This should not be a problem for Warrick, who was the primary punt return man for Cincinnati when Gardocki was punting with Cleveland. The kicking duo of PT Tom Rouen and PK Josh Brown are solid, but not great.
 

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Matchups
? Pittsburgh SS Troy Polamalu vs. Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck
? Seattle MLB Lofa Tatupu vs. Pittsburgh RBs Willie Parker/Jerome Bettis
? Pittsburgh ILB James Farrior vs. Seattle RB Shaun Alexander
? Seattle LOT Walter Jones vs. Pittsburgh ROLB Joey Porter
? Seattle DC Marcus Trufant vs. Pittsburgh WR Hines Ward

Scouts' Edge
These are teams that have traveled very different paths to the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh has already made history by becoming the only No. 6 seed to ever make it this far. As the No. 1 seed in the NFC, Seattle has taken advantage of its home-field edge. Despite the seedings, Pittsburgh comes in as the favorite. You can bet, Seattle head coach Mike Holmgren and his team have not let that go unnoticed. Pittsburgh has played the underdog role throughout the playoffs, and now the shoe will be on the other foot.

This game is really going to boil down to the play up front. For the Seahawks to win, their offensive line must play the best game of the season. Alexander is going to get hit early and often. He must continue to show he is willing to run inside and grind out tough yards between the tackles. In pass protection, Seattle's offensive line must be able to adjust on the fly, something that both Indianapolis and Denver could not do versus the blitz-happy Pittsburgh defense.

The Steelers have taken a different approach on offense. We used to talk about their chances of winning or losing resting with the running game. That can't be said anymore, as Roethlisberger has firmly established himself as the man driving Pittsburgh's offense. He has been unflappable thus far but will get a lot of pressure from a very underrated Seattle front seven that finished the regular season ranked first in sacks.

Although neither team could have gotten here without a win streak, it is hard to go against a Pittsburgh team that has completely dismantled the No. 3, No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in pretty easy fashion. For that reason, we look for Cowher to get that elusive first Super Bowl win.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Seahawks 20
 

BobbyBlueChip

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Belly of the Beast
Props (not from Scouts - just mine)

Tails -105

Documented 9 of the last 10 (only loss coming in Tampa/Oakland game on a grass field) Top-Heavy commerative coin finds the ground on the field turf

Heads will be called on coin toss?
Yes (-128)


This opened at -183 so whoever put this line up knows more about the visitors calling tendencies than I do. Riding with the sharps on this one

John Madden will say first: After Kickoff

9551 "Heck of a" -119
9552 "Big time" +462
9553 Horsecollar +1189
9554 Manhandled +1082
9555 Boom +1137
9556 Wham +1194
9557 Not say any of these all game +450

I don't see how he would say any of these things (outside of Boom) without first saying that the guy made a heck of a play (as a side note: The reason I love betting the coin toss is two fold (a. it's profitable and b. once you cheer for the coin toss, everyone at the gathering knows that you're not there for the socializing and they stay the hell away from your sight lines to the plasma. Can't wait for this year when I tell everyone to STFU so that I can hear what John Madden has to say)

Jeremy Stevens Over 3 catches -150

The way that Seattle can find out real quickly who's coming from the Steeler secondary is to get the Tight end in motion. It's hard to hide coverage when you've got a 3-receiver set and a TE in motion. Stevens might have 3 catches in the first drive.
 

BobbyBlueChip

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Belly of the Beast
Hope everyone got on that heads will be called, becuase it's back up to -163 (BobbyBlueChip moves lines)

Adding

Steelers Rush TD as first score +430

Big Ben has first completion -107
Only on the theory that Seattle calls heads, it comes tails and Pittsburgh takes the ball

Game will be decided by 21+ points +654
 
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