NCAA pick for THursday 2/16...

[Glenn Quagmire]

I hardly ever post NCAA picks but I do follow the Pac-10 conference pretty closely. One game jumped out at me last night so I bet on it right away:

Cal (-2.5) - I was amazed to see this line so low. I really thought Cal would be at least a 5 point fave. I think they're a better team than AZ and they're playing at home, yet they're laying less than a field goal?! I won't go into a huge write-up on this game but I just don't know who on the 'Cats is going to stop Powe. I don't see Radenovic being able to stop him as he seems like a guy who would much rather play out on the perimeter. He doesn't seem like much of a banger to me. Walters? He's more of a post defender but I don't think he would have a chance against Powe either. I also really like Cal's backcourt. They don't get the recognition that Powe does, but they are very good. Ubaka is one of the better guards in the conference and Midgley is a smart player who can really hit the 3 ball.

Arizona has some good players like Shakur and Hassan Adams is an absolute stud, but I don't think they're the same Zona team that we have seen in years past. Just my opinion, but I think they are living off of their past reputation, much like Washington. They're still a pretty good team, as is Washington, but they're not exactly the Pac-10 giants we're used to seeing. Cal needs this game to keep pace with UCLA for a first-place tie in the conference. I think they get it and I think they win this one by 8 or more.

I also have a strong lean on Wazzu -2. This is much more a bet against OSU than a bet on Wazzu. OSU is absolutely terrible. Seriously, if I bought a ticket to one of their games I would probably ask for my money back. I don't care about records, they are without a doubt the worst team in the Pac-10 in my opinion. I've made a killing betting against these guys all year. Wazzu is no picnic either but at least they play defense. I haven't actually bet on this game because WSU is incredibly unpredictable. There's a good chance I won't bet it at all, but I do think WSU wins and covers this game.

GLTA

 

[bohawk]

Glen-Man, thanks for good info.Have Bears beating Cats by 7-8 pts.
Also like Stanford TN. GL

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

No worries bohawk. I like Stanford tonight too. I mentioned how bad OSU is, well ASU is neck and neck with them. Stanford is really playing well right now and although that's a big number, they should blow ASU out with ease. GLTY...

 

[gjn23]

word of caution....arizona owns, absolutely owns, cal

powe was totally shut down in the first half (had a good second half) last month by a collapsing defense and midgley and ubaka were shut down the entire game....arizona totally dominated the boards and the final score was closer than the game really was, thanks to a bad last few mins by arizona.

the cats know that getting one of these two games in the bay area will go a long way to guaranteeing a ncaa bid and quite frankly, stanford plays us much better than cal (and we dontplay them until sunday, so no look ahead) so i look for the effort to be there tonight

fwiw.....i dont know how you thought the line would be closer to 5 as arizona was just at ucla 2 weeks ago and was catching 3.5......personally i thought the line would be around a pick

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

word of caution....arizona owns, absolutely owns, cal

powe was totally shut down in the first half (had a good second half) last month by a collapsing defense and midgley and ubaka were shut down the entire game....arizona totally dominated the boards and the final score was closer than the game really was, thanks to a bad last few mins by arizona.

the cats know that getting one of these two games in the bay area will go a long way to guaranteeing a ncaa bid and quite frankly, stanford plays us much better than cal (and we dontplay them until sunday, so no look ahead) so i look for the effort to be there tonight

fwiw.....i dont know how you thought the line would be closer to 5 as arizona was just at ucla 2 weeks ago and was catching 3.5......personally i thought the line would be around a pick

The UCLA line was a bad line too, in my opinion. The line may have only been -3.5, but they beat UA by 11. Like I said before, UA seems to be living on their old reputation as far as lines are concerned. Rather than adjust the lines when they lose to a UCLA by 11, the lines stay pretty similar. It seems like the linemakers are thinking they will "snap out of it" with the lines they are making, rather than adjust them accordingly. Maybe I'm wrong and they just haven't played up to their potential, but I think they really miss the guys they lost from last year's team, especially Frye in the middle.

As for why I thought Cal would be favored by 5? They're the home team and, in my opinion, they're the better team. That right there should be worth a minimum of 5 points. The fact that they lost in Tucson doesn't mean much to me. It's VERY hard to sweep a team in the Pac-10. Home court advantage is HUGE in college hoops. It's not uncommon to see a team lose by 20 to a team on the road, then turn around and beat that same team outright on their home floor. I think emotion is one of the biggest factors in capping college hoops, and homecourt advantage plays right into that. I could give a ton of examples of inferior teams getting killed on the road, then beating the same team they lost to at home, but I'm sure you know of them.

I wasn't trying to knock UA in my post. I'm just very impressed with Cal this year and this is a huge game for them if they want to stay tied with UCLA at the top. Should be a good game...

P.S. UCLA has been undervalued quite a bit this year by the linemakers. A few weeks ago they were only giving 3 at OSU and they were actually +1 at Oregon. Recently they only laid, I believe, -1.5 on the road at Wazzu. They haven't been getting much respect no matter who they play.