Thoughts on games from 2 ESPN guys Hradek and Burnside...Hradek first
Elimination Previewposted: Tuesday, February 21, 2006 | Feedback
After a week of preliminary-round games, we get down to the nitty-gritty. The quarterfinals are a one-game elimination. In these situations, anything can happen. Really, anything can happen. Do you remember Belarus stunning the powerful Swedes four years ago in Salt Lake City?
This year, we've already seen several unexpected results. The Swiss, for example, already have beaten the Czechs and Canadians. Like I say, anything can happen. Here's a look at the four quarterfinal matchups:
Finland vs. USA
The Finns have been dynamic in the preliminary round, going a perfect 5-0. They've outscored their opponents 19-2. And, they haven't allowed an even-strength goal during the tournament.
Pretty good, eh?
Yeah, the Finns have been near perfect. Of course, starting on Wednesday, that means nothing. Four years ago, the Swedes seemed well on their way to the gold-medal game when they were sidetracked by Belarus.
Team USA certainly has enough talent to beat the Finns in a one-game playoff. They'll need to play better than they have in the preliminary round. The Americans seemed like they had more life in Tuesday's game against Russia. Hey, at least they scored some goals! Not surprisingly, head coach Peter Laviolette juggled his lines during Tuesday's game. Laviolette seemed to find more ice time for fast-skating forwards Craig Conroy and Jason Blake. I liked that.
The American netted three power-play goals against Russia. That's a huge improvement. They'll need the power play to be working against the Finns.
On the flip side, Team USA's penalty killers will be tested by Finland's power play. The Finns have converted 11 of 33 PP chances in the tournament. No other Olympic squad has been that successful on the PP. The Finns' top line of center Saku Koivu, left wing Jere Lehtinen and right wing Teemu Selanne have been almost impossible to stop. Selanne, who has scored 20 goals in 22 career Olympic games, leads the tournament with six goals. I would expect Laviolette would employ the defensive pair of Derian Hatcher and Jordan Leopold to work against the Koivu line.
In goal, Team USA will go back to Rick DiPietro, who has played well with a 1.68 goals-against average and a 91.53 save percentage in three games. The Finns will turn to Antero Niittymaki, who has two shutouts in the tournament. Niittymaki has turned back 85 of 87 shots in three starts.
If the Americans want to pull the upset, they'd be wise to score the first goal. That would put the Finns on their heels. If the Finns can get the lead, they can continue playing their strong team defense. The Americans also have to tighten up on defense. They can't allow the odd-man rushes that have been killing them in the preliminary round.
The Finns edged the Americans in a World Cup semifinal in 2004. I expect a similar result on Wednesday.
Switzerland vs. Sweden
The Swiss have been a wonderful surprise during these Olympics. One NHL scout, who has been watching the games in Torino, told me that he really likes the way the Swiss have been playing as a team. He also commented on their competitiveness. That said, you have to wonder if they've run out of gas. After beating the Czechs and Canadians, the Swiss have struggled to gain ties against Germany and Italy.
Clearly, the Swiss will need another strong goaltending performance. I expect Martin Gerber to get the start. Gerber hasn't played since his 49-save shutout against Canada on Saturday. He played just five periods during the preliminary round. He started the tournament against Finland, but he was pulled after the second period. He bounced back with a great effort against Canada. If the Swiss opt against Gerber, they can turn to David Aebischer, who has been very good during the tournament.
Sweden will counter with Henrik Lundqvist, who has played progressively better in his three starts. Lundqvist will have a tough job against the Swiss. He will not be under constant pressure. But the Swiss will get scoring chances. He must make those key stops to take the life out of the Swiss attack.
At the other end of the ice, the Swedes must be smart on the attack and get pucks to the net. Against the Canadians, Gerber did a good job controlling his rebounds. The Swedes must get to the net and find those loose pucks.
Swedish centers Mats Sundin, Samuel Pahlsson and Henrik Sedin have dominated the face-off circle during the tournament. Sundin has won 73 percent of his draws, while Pahlsson has taken 71 percent of his faceoffs. If they continue to be effective in the circles, the Swiss will have an even more difficult time getting the puck.
Team Sweden can't afford to overlook the Swiss. After their 2002 loss to Belarus, I can't imagine the Swedes will make that mistake again. I expect Sweden will advance. If they don't, I'll be surprised. It will be the only result that would surprise me during this fun day of hockey.
Slovakia vs. Czech Republic
Like Finland, the Slovaks finished the tournament with a perfect 5-0 mark. Now, the surprising Slovaks set their sights on the gold medal. In their perfect world, the Slovaks would love to beat the Czechs in a gold-medal game. But, they'll be happy to beat the Czechs on the way to the gold.
Veteran Peter Bondra called Wednesday's game "the biggest in Slovakian hockey history."
Of course, beating their former countrymen won't be easy. The Czechs, who have struggled during this tournament with injuries and inconsistent goaltending, seemed to find their way during the final two periods of Tuesday's game against Canada. They battled back from a 3-0 first period deficit before falling 3-2.
Czech head coach Alois Hadamczik will have a big decision to make concerning his starting goaltending for Wednesday's elimination game. Tomas Vokoun hasn't been very good in the tournament. On Tuesday against Canada, he surrendered two real softies -- three goals in total -- before being pulled after the first period. The Czech's third goalie, Milan Hnilicka (Dominik Hasek is out with injury), did a nice job in relief. Hnilicka made a couple of big stops (he denied Martin St. Louis on two excellent chances) in the second period to jump-start the Czechs.
Personally, I would go with Hnilicka. I would do that because Vokoun just looks too shaky. He seems to be fighting the puck. I think the Czechs will have a better chance -- in a one-game situation -- with Hnilicka.
At the other end, the Slovaks likely will go with Peter Budaj, who earned wins over the Russians and Americans during the preliminary round. Budaj has stopped 48 of 52 shots in his two starts.
Each team brings a ton of firepower to the rink. The Slovaks are getting a lot of mileage out of their top line (center Pavol Demitra, left wing Marian Gaborik, right wing Marian Hossa). The Slovaks' second line, featuring snipers Miroslav Satan, Richard Zednik and Bondra, has been almost as good.
The Czechs forwards made a nice push during Tuesday's loss to Canada. The club will need a strong performance out of its top line (Jaromir Jagr, Vinny Prospal and Martin Straka). No doubt, the Slovaks will match oversized defender Zdeno Chara against Jagr. In the end, that matchup could decide the game.
This game is a toss-up. Based on their play in the preliminary round, I'll take the Slovaks in a tight one.
Russia vs. Canada
On ice, it doesn't get much better than this. These two hockey nations have a hard-earned respect for one another.
Certainly, neither country figured it would be seeing the other this early in the tournament. But in this crazy tournament, they'll meet in the quarters.
Both teams are explosive. The Russians are particularly scary with snipers like Alexei Kovalev, Ilya Kovalchuk, Alex Ovechkin and young Evgeni Malkin zipping all over the ice. The Canadians will have to play a strong defensive game in front of Martin Brodeur, who hopes to start despite tweaking a knee injury in Tuesday's win over the Czechs.
They'll also need to get some production from oversized forwards like Joe Thornton, Todd Bertuzzi and Rick Nash. Those three haven't generated enough offense in their preliminary round games. They'll have to get the puck deep and try and work the Russian defensemen. They'll want to make it difficult for the Russians to break out of their zone with speed.
If he doesn't have any further knee issues, Brodeur will get the start. With an Olympic gold medal, a World Cup and three Stanley Cups on his r?sum?, Brodeur shouldn't be affected by the pressure of the moment. In fact, Brodeur made several big stops in the third period of the win over the Czech Republic.
The Russians will go with Evgeni Nabokov, who has been very consistent in the tournament, stopping 61 of 63 shots. The Canadians will want to test him early in the game.
Who wins? Well, sorry, I never bet against Canada. I'll take the Canadians to advance in a very exciting game.
