for the last few years the horizon league tourney has been one of the best small conference tournaments in college basketball. this year, its been boring as hell and completely devoid of drama.
* no game has been decided by less than 9 points.
* favorites are 5-2 heading into tonight.
* overs are 6-1 heading into tonight.
the good news for the league is that they got the best matchup possible for the title game. butler and milwaukee clearly are the two best teams in the league right now. before the season started, detroit and loyola were two teams that stood a legitimate chance of getting to the championship game but both were soundly beaten to finish their respective seasons.
milwaukee and butler split the two meetings with each holding serve on their home floor but the panthers should have probably swept the regular season series. they were up by 3 on the road in the final seconds but allowed bruce horan to hit an off-balance three from the corner as time expired in regulation to send it to overtime (where butler eventually won 63-60).
the argument for butler in this one:
they are 5th in the ncaa with 272 three-pointers as a team this year. their motion offense is incredibly efficient. they are content to run as much time off the shot clock as necessary to find an open shot. most of the time, its a 3. but they also have the horizon league player of the year in brandon polk on the inside so they can also work an inside/outside game. as a team, they shoot a gaudy 39% from beyond the arc. and they shoot 70+% from the line. they also take outstanding care of the basketball -- just 8.9 turnovers per game. these guys just do not beat themselves. butler has also been very impressive in hostile environments this season. they took ohio state to overtime on the road, they lost by 4 at michigan, they trailed a (at the time) ranked indiana team by 2 points at the half in conseco, and they took kent state to overtime in kent as well. those games speak volumes about how they handle the pressure of playing on the road.
the argument against butler in this one:
plain and simple -- rebounding. thats all that keeps this team from being the best team in the horizon. they've been outrebounded in 29 of their 30 games this year and they're not a very big team. in the two meetings this year, uwm held a +8 and a +24 edge on the glass. butler compensated by turning the ball over just 13 times total in the two games and also hitting 16 3s. but theres no doubt that the bulldogs must limit second chance points if they want to win here. theyre not the only team in the country that has to overcome a lack of size. teams like air force and west virginia are in the same boat. and they all seem to win by being proficient in other areas. the key number for butler tonight might be "10". if they knock down 10 threes and turn the ball over less than 10 times, they can win outright. thats what its going to take to beat a team like milwaukee in u.s. cellular.
the argument for milwaukee in this one:
they're the best team top to bottom in the league. when they're on their game, they're 6-8 points better than any team in the horizon. without question, joah tucker is one of the top players in the league but you can make a good case for adrian tigert being the most IMPORANT player for uwm. its really not a coincidence that uwm lost back to back home games late in the season to illinois-chicago and missouri state when tigert was out of the lineup because of a back injury. his contributions go much further than just his 12.9 points and 7.9 rebounds. he's really the glue to the team. in fact, it was his free throw with 4.2 seconds left in the horizon championship last year that sent uwm to the dance. what makes milwaukee so tough is they've got three legit 'go-to' guys. on any given night, it might be tucker with 20+ points. another night, it might be tigert with 19 points and 12 boards. and there were times early in the season when boo davis carried the panthers on his back with his outside shooting.
the argument against milwaukee in this one:
for whatever reason, they dont have quite the same killer instinct under rob jeter that they had under bruce pearl. considering that milwaukee is 12-4/20-8 this year, its hard to criticize the job jeter has done. and uwm has certainly laid their share of ass whoopings on horizon league teams at times. but last year, uwm just got after it and was in your face for 40 minutes, every single game. and pearl was definitely responsible for that identity. this year, there have been times when uwm seems to just coast and allow teams to hang around. a good example was their espn game against green bay earlier this season. in the first half, the panthers had uwgb on the ropes. their pressure was clearly bothering the phoenix. but for some reason they backed off the intensity after the break, green bay got hot, and the next thing you knew, the phoenix erased a 10-point deficit and won the game outright. so at times, complacency can set in with this team. but considering that the horizon is definitely a one-bid league this season there is no doubt that both teams will be playing with a sense of urgency because the loser will undoubtedly find themselves in the nit.
* no game has been decided by less than 9 points.
* favorites are 5-2 heading into tonight.
* overs are 6-1 heading into tonight.
the good news for the league is that they got the best matchup possible for the title game. butler and milwaukee clearly are the two best teams in the league right now. before the season started, detroit and loyola were two teams that stood a legitimate chance of getting to the championship game but both were soundly beaten to finish their respective seasons.
milwaukee and butler split the two meetings with each holding serve on their home floor but the panthers should have probably swept the regular season series. they were up by 3 on the road in the final seconds but allowed bruce horan to hit an off-balance three from the corner as time expired in regulation to send it to overtime (where butler eventually won 63-60).
the argument for butler in this one:
they are 5th in the ncaa with 272 three-pointers as a team this year. their motion offense is incredibly efficient. they are content to run as much time off the shot clock as necessary to find an open shot. most of the time, its a 3. but they also have the horizon league player of the year in brandon polk on the inside so they can also work an inside/outside game. as a team, they shoot a gaudy 39% from beyond the arc. and they shoot 70+% from the line. they also take outstanding care of the basketball -- just 8.9 turnovers per game. these guys just do not beat themselves. butler has also been very impressive in hostile environments this season. they took ohio state to overtime on the road, they lost by 4 at michigan, they trailed a (at the time) ranked indiana team by 2 points at the half in conseco, and they took kent state to overtime in kent as well. those games speak volumes about how they handle the pressure of playing on the road.
the argument against butler in this one:
plain and simple -- rebounding. thats all that keeps this team from being the best team in the horizon. they've been outrebounded in 29 of their 30 games this year and they're not a very big team. in the two meetings this year, uwm held a +8 and a +24 edge on the glass. butler compensated by turning the ball over just 13 times total in the two games and also hitting 16 3s. but theres no doubt that the bulldogs must limit second chance points if they want to win here. theyre not the only team in the country that has to overcome a lack of size. teams like air force and west virginia are in the same boat. and they all seem to win by being proficient in other areas. the key number for butler tonight might be "10". if they knock down 10 threes and turn the ball over less than 10 times, they can win outright. thats what its going to take to beat a team like milwaukee in u.s. cellular.
the argument for milwaukee in this one:
they're the best team top to bottom in the league. when they're on their game, they're 6-8 points better than any team in the horizon. without question, joah tucker is one of the top players in the league but you can make a good case for adrian tigert being the most IMPORANT player for uwm. its really not a coincidence that uwm lost back to back home games late in the season to illinois-chicago and missouri state when tigert was out of the lineup because of a back injury. his contributions go much further than just his 12.9 points and 7.9 rebounds. he's really the glue to the team. in fact, it was his free throw with 4.2 seconds left in the horizon championship last year that sent uwm to the dance. what makes milwaukee so tough is they've got three legit 'go-to' guys. on any given night, it might be tucker with 20+ points. another night, it might be tigert with 19 points and 12 boards. and there were times early in the season when boo davis carried the panthers on his back with his outside shooting.
the argument against milwaukee in this one:
for whatever reason, they dont have quite the same killer instinct under rob jeter that they had under bruce pearl. considering that milwaukee is 12-4/20-8 this year, its hard to criticize the job jeter has done. and uwm has certainly laid their share of ass whoopings on horizon league teams at times. but last year, uwm just got after it and was in your face for 40 minutes, every single game. and pearl was definitely responsible for that identity. this year, there have been times when uwm seems to just coast and allow teams to hang around. a good example was their espn game against green bay earlier this season. in the first half, the panthers had uwgb on the ropes. their pressure was clearly bothering the phoenix. but for some reason they backed off the intensity after the break, green bay got hot, and the next thing you knew, the phoenix erased a 10-point deficit and won the game outright. so at times, complacency can set in with this team. but considering that the horizon is definitely a one-bid league this season there is no doubt that both teams will be playing with a sense of urgency because the loser will undoubtedly find themselves in the nit.
