Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)
Luke Donald to win 16/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes and BetFred
After the glittering of stars last week, this event is decidedly short on 'name players' and Donald is the 2nd highest ranked player in the World Rankings (12th) in this field. He should make that class pay this week and should be boosted by the reigning champion being his Ryder Cup teammate, Padraig Harrington. He has only played here once and on that occasion (2004) he finished 21st, which was his highest finish in Florida at the time. He did compete in this State once last year and only a final round 76 denied him victory in the Players Championship so he is clearly improving on Bermuda greens. His form is good and the opposition is not particularly impressive.
Geoff Ogilvy to win 20/1 e.w. available generally
With Ogilvy's win in the WGC World Matchplay Championship, he also confirmed his pedigree, which is fairly sparse in this event. It says a great deal for his impressive display two weeks ago that in this event last year, when selected on this page, he was 50/1. On that occasion, he was desperately unlucky on the final hole to have his drive finish in a divot and not only deny him the opportunity to record a birdie and get into the playoff (he had been joint-leader heading into the final round, but he ended up with a double-bogey from a horrible lie in the middle of the fairway and finished 6th and out of the places. That was two weeks after he had won the Chrysler Classic of Tucson so there is a symmetry to last year (bar the last hole, hopefully) and with finishes of 13th the previous year on this course, 14th on the other course at Mirasol, 2nd in this event in 2001 and a generally very impressive record in Florida overall, he is worth backing in this event even if his odds are now considerably lower than twelve months ago.
Carl Pettersson to win 40/1 e.w. available generally
While Ogilvy held the lead during the event last year, Pettersson can also claim to have done so when this course was first used two years ago. On that occasion, he shot 63-68 to lead after the 1st and 2nd rounds and while he did wilt over the weekend and eventually finish 13th, he is a far better player now and won his last event in Florida (2005 Chrysler Championship). His form is good - he finished 7th against a very much stronger field in his last strokeplay event, the Nissan Open, and was defeated by Davis Love, the eventual runner-up, by just one hole in the 2nd round of the World Matchplay Championship - so he should once again be very competitive around this course.
