Friday NCAA games
afternoon session
Ohio State beat Davidson 69-64 in '02 tourney (-12), in 4-13 game first of four straight covers for Southern Conference teams, with losses by 5,3,5,16 points; that was Buckeyes' last appearance in NCAAs, but Ohio State is 11-0 outside of Big 11, and is 7-1 in its last eight games, losing in Big 11 finals. Davidson shoots 36% from arc, is +127 on boards; they lost 84-55 at Duke, 82-58 at Carolina, 90-80 at Syracuse, but beat Missouri, St Joe's; they've won six of last seven games and have six seniors, four of whom start. 15 seeds are 27-17 vs spread over last eleven tourneys.
Arkansas is in NCAAs for first time in five years, while Bucknell beat Kansas last year, ending 0-13 skid for Patriot League teams in this tournament. Since '99, dogs of 4+ points in 8-9 games are 4-1 vs spread. A look at Bucknell's schedule shows 74-69 win at Syracuse, 57-52 win at DePaul, 79-60 home loss to Villanova and losses at Santa Clara (77-68), Duke (84-50), and in double OT at Northern Iowa (65-61). Arkansas had won six in row before loss to Florida (74-71) in SEC tourney; they're 11-2 outside of SEC, as they won ten in row after losing to Maryland, UConn in Maui- they beat Kansas out there.
Iowa is lot bigger than Northwestern State, so Demons will have to be demons on boards (they're 279th on defensive boards for season) but State plays fast, with two platoons of five guys and they figure to have quickness advantage over Iowa squad that was 3-5 on road in Big 11. Teams that won Big 11 tournament but aren't #1 seeds are 2-3 vs spread in first tournament game. Demons won at Oklahoma State, Mississippi State, beat Oregon State on neutral court and lost by only four at Hawai'i, so State has played with some big boys and done well. Hawkeyes might be fat and happy after winning conference tourney; an upset?
Arizona in Philly is bad news for them; they once begged out of game at St Joe's due to snowstorm in east that wasn't that bad. Since coming to Arizona, Lute Olson is 1-6 in first round games when he is seeded lower than 3rd; Wildcats have distractions galore, with Adams suspended last weekend, Rodgers getting fired, then brought back. Arizona is 3-5 when they score 65 pts or less. Bo Ryan is 4-0 in first round games with Wisconsin, as Ryan is tournament-savvy coach (won four national titles at the D-III level). Badgers also had their issues during year, losing 4 of last five games and also losing at home to North Dakota State in January. Arizona opponents shoot 45.1% from floor, a really bad figure for good team. Badgers hold foes to 41.9% from floor.
Northern Iowa-Georgetown could be very low scoring game, as UNI ranks 322nd in pace, Hoyas 329th. Panthers got at-large bid on strength of non-league wins vs Iowa, LSU and Bucknell, but fact is UNI lost five of last six games and was 6th seed in MVC tournament- this is their first game in 13 days. Georgetown lost five of last nine games, after seven-game win streak including a win over Duke- they haven't allowed more than 63 pts in last six games. UNI is 5th in country in defensive rebounding; they've allowed 47.7 ppg in last three games, but scoring has been real problem for Panthers. Favorites are 10-6 vs spread in 7-10 games the last four tournaments.
#1 seed Memphis is -16 over Oral Roberts team that beat USC in Alaska by 20, lost 73-70 vs Marquette, but then didn't play that well, losing to Missouri State (68-52), UL-Lafayette (95-74), Utah State (65-64), Oklahoma (81-73), Minnesota (67-54), & Montana (67-54). That said, the 16-pt spread is lowest in 1-16 game since '90, when Michigan State beat Murray State 75-71 in OT (-15) in one of closest-ever calls for #1 seed. ORU shoots 38.7% on 3's, has five seniors in its rotation. Memphis was just 6-11 vs spread in league games (16-1 SU), with six wins by 16+ pts. Tigers play down to level of opposition at times; after missing tournament last year, will be interesting to see how they come out here.
Favorites are 6-2 vs spread in 6-11 games last two years, but the Salukis won last four games, allowing 47.3 ppg, and figure to be tough out for West Virginia team that lost first Big East tourney game and five of last seven games overall. WVa ranks 286th in country in pace, but 12th in efficency, so they work the offense and look for 3's (2nd in country in % of pts scored from behind the arc). Salukis rank 318th in pace, 9th in defensive efficiency, so strength vs strength when WVa has ball. Mountaineers are more experienced team, but Salukis playing better now; this is third first round game pitting Big East vs Missouri Valley teams.
Teams that won play-in game are 3-0-1 vs spread in first round the last four years, with the five play-in winners losing by 42,15, 21,20,28 points. #1 seeds are 7-9 vs spread last four years- these kids know each other, as Monmouth is on Jersey shore and kids have faced each other in high school, AAU play. Both teams are perimeter-based; Monmouth runs some Princeton stuff- looking at their non-league games, Hawks beat Southern Illinois by 12 in Alaska, lost 62-56 to South Carolina, 61-45 to Seton Hall; their -129 ratio on backboards shouldn't hurt as much vs Villanova's 4-guard lineup. Wildcats shoot lot of 3's; they were 5-8 vs pts in last thirteen games as favorite.
afternoon session
Ohio State beat Davidson 69-64 in '02 tourney (-12), in 4-13 game first of four straight covers for Southern Conference teams, with losses by 5,3,5,16 points; that was Buckeyes' last appearance in NCAAs, but Ohio State is 11-0 outside of Big 11, and is 7-1 in its last eight games, losing in Big 11 finals. Davidson shoots 36% from arc, is +127 on boards; they lost 84-55 at Duke, 82-58 at Carolina, 90-80 at Syracuse, but beat Missouri, St Joe's; they've won six of last seven games and have six seniors, four of whom start. 15 seeds are 27-17 vs spread over last eleven tourneys.
Arkansas is in NCAAs for first time in five years, while Bucknell beat Kansas last year, ending 0-13 skid for Patriot League teams in this tournament. Since '99, dogs of 4+ points in 8-9 games are 4-1 vs spread. A look at Bucknell's schedule shows 74-69 win at Syracuse, 57-52 win at DePaul, 79-60 home loss to Villanova and losses at Santa Clara (77-68), Duke (84-50), and in double OT at Northern Iowa (65-61). Arkansas had won six in row before loss to Florida (74-71) in SEC tourney; they're 11-2 outside of SEC, as they won ten in row after losing to Maryland, UConn in Maui- they beat Kansas out there.
Iowa is lot bigger than Northwestern State, so Demons will have to be demons on boards (they're 279th on defensive boards for season) but State plays fast, with two platoons of five guys and they figure to have quickness advantage over Iowa squad that was 3-5 on road in Big 11. Teams that won Big 11 tournament but aren't #1 seeds are 2-3 vs spread in first tournament game. Demons won at Oklahoma State, Mississippi State, beat Oregon State on neutral court and lost by only four at Hawai'i, so State has played with some big boys and done well. Hawkeyes might be fat and happy after winning conference tourney; an upset?
Arizona in Philly is bad news for them; they once begged out of game at St Joe's due to snowstorm in east that wasn't that bad. Since coming to Arizona, Lute Olson is 1-6 in first round games when he is seeded lower than 3rd; Wildcats have distractions galore, with Adams suspended last weekend, Rodgers getting fired, then brought back. Arizona is 3-5 when they score 65 pts or less. Bo Ryan is 4-0 in first round games with Wisconsin, as Ryan is tournament-savvy coach (won four national titles at the D-III level). Badgers also had their issues during year, losing 4 of last five games and also losing at home to North Dakota State in January. Arizona opponents shoot 45.1% from floor, a really bad figure for good team. Badgers hold foes to 41.9% from floor.
Northern Iowa-Georgetown could be very low scoring game, as UNI ranks 322nd in pace, Hoyas 329th. Panthers got at-large bid on strength of non-league wins vs Iowa, LSU and Bucknell, but fact is UNI lost five of last six games and was 6th seed in MVC tournament- this is their first game in 13 days. Georgetown lost five of last nine games, after seven-game win streak including a win over Duke- they haven't allowed more than 63 pts in last six games. UNI is 5th in country in defensive rebounding; they've allowed 47.7 ppg in last three games, but scoring has been real problem for Panthers. Favorites are 10-6 vs spread in 7-10 games the last four tournaments.
#1 seed Memphis is -16 over Oral Roberts team that beat USC in Alaska by 20, lost 73-70 vs Marquette, but then didn't play that well, losing to Missouri State (68-52), UL-Lafayette (95-74), Utah State (65-64), Oklahoma (81-73), Minnesota (67-54), & Montana (67-54). That said, the 16-pt spread is lowest in 1-16 game since '90, when Michigan State beat Murray State 75-71 in OT (-15) in one of closest-ever calls for #1 seed. ORU shoots 38.7% on 3's, has five seniors in its rotation. Memphis was just 6-11 vs spread in league games (16-1 SU), with six wins by 16+ pts. Tigers play down to level of opposition at times; after missing tournament last year, will be interesting to see how they come out here.
Favorites are 6-2 vs spread in 6-11 games last two years, but the Salukis won last four games, allowing 47.3 ppg, and figure to be tough out for West Virginia team that lost first Big East tourney game and five of last seven games overall. WVa ranks 286th in country in pace, but 12th in efficency, so they work the offense and look for 3's (2nd in country in % of pts scored from behind the arc). Salukis rank 318th in pace, 9th in defensive efficiency, so strength vs strength when WVa has ball. Mountaineers are more experienced team, but Salukis playing better now; this is third first round game pitting Big East vs Missouri Valley teams.
Teams that won play-in game are 3-0-1 vs spread in first round the last four years, with the five play-in winners losing by 42,15, 21,20,28 points. #1 seeds are 7-9 vs spread last four years- these kids know each other, as Monmouth is on Jersey shore and kids have faced each other in high school, AAU play. Both teams are perimeter-based; Monmouth runs some Princeton stuff- looking at their non-league games, Hawks beat Southern Illinois by 12 in Alaska, lost 62-56 to South Carolina, 61-45 to Seton Hall; their -129 ratio on backboards shouldn't hurt as much vs Villanova's 4-guard lineup. Wildcats shoot lot of 3's; they were 5-8 vs pts in last thirteen games as favorite.
