3-20... Action Monday... Play on principle

[Jayhawk_Thor]

As the headline said, this is pure play on principle.


Will update my record in a second, but I thought I had to jump on this one while I even had a chance while the line continues to plummet. :scared


Clemson +3 (Lous.), -102, 51/50. Clemson ML (+145) 50/72.50.
---- As I stated in the previous thread I started, this game smells to high heaven.
The line started at Lous. -5, had almost 70% of the public betting on the Cardinals (I know some of you guys dont believe in those stats) and the line still dropped by 2 points!
Disclaimer: I know nothing about these teams, have only seen Louisville probably three times on TV and Clemson once. I didnt take the time to check injuries, stats, past scores, anything. This play is purely on principle. I have seen line movement that goes with the public plays many, many times this season, and it seems like the other team covers 80% of the time or so (that is a very crude, un-scientific number).
Recent examples: Georgetown (OSU), Wichita St. (Ten), UW-Mil (Ok.). I know those three games well, as they have been my largest bets of the postseason so far.
Clemson could still get spanked... I really have no idea... but clearly someone at the books has a strong opinion about this one...

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

Updated season record: 59-36-2

Will update units tomorrow.

Yesterday recap: Won BIG with Georgetown. It was my play of the tournament so far (largest wager)... I thought GU would win outright, and didnt think much of OSU... but man they were even worse than I thought. What a stink job. At least Matta gets Oden next year.

A side note on the Clemson game... This line continues to amaze me. When I posted before, 67% of the public was on Louisville. That number has risen to 72% since the line went down to 3, and not only that, but the line continues to move in Louisvilles favor!

At Pinny now, the vig on Clemson +3 is -107, wheras I got it at -102 only an hour ago.

Very, very strange indeed. With the way this line is moving, it could easily be at +2 or even +1 by tip-off, with 3 out of every 4 wagers coming on Louisville.

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

Mine as well double the fun.

Michigan -3 (ND), -102, 51/50
---- Big Ten team at home, against a heavily backed public team...
Hmm... where have I seen this before?
Wake Forest @ Minnesota, anyone?
The Wolverines roll.
As an aside, I see 74% of the public on ND... but Vegas will actually compensate the other side on this one, as the line has dropped from 4 to 3.

 

[gman2]

i think youre overanalyzing the line. why would a louisville team that has won 6 of their last 16 games (and recently lost padgett for the season) be favored by more than 3 or 4 points? the last time the public saw louisville, they were held scoreless for the first 9:00 of the game against pittsburgh. you are a good capper; therefore, i must ask you -- why SHOULDN'T the line be where it is at?

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

Gman, I figured you wouldnt like my analysis of this one...

My question is simply this: If 75% of every wager coming in is on one team, why would the line mysteriously drop by 2 points in favor of that team?

Vegas doesnt simply change its mind after the opening line comes out. Why would they see so many people coming down on one side, and decide to reward people by making it easier to bet on that side (to the tune of 2 points, which in this case is huge).

It just stinks to me. Either Clemson is getting pounded by "wise guys," Vegas knows something that nobody else does, or it is a combination of the two. Either way, I am perfectly willing to jump on their side.

As I said, I know nothing about either of these teams, and am willing to put a unit on Clemson on principle. I have seen so many games like this where the anti-public team ended up covering easy.

That probably didn't suffeciently explain my side... Maybe it did, but I dont think you will agree with the justiciation either way...

Anyhow, we will shall see... Unfortunately I have a night class and wont be able to watch this one.

 

[Your Cuz Vinny]

Hawk...

The goodfellas are on the other side. However, that in itself doesn't justify this big of a line drop. Therefore, I am on this as well, on a case of principle more so than anything else. GL to us.

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

Hawk...

The goodfellas are on the other side. However, that in itself doesn't justify this big of a line drop. Therefore, I am on this as well, on a case of principle more so than anything else. GL to us.

Principle, your damn right.

In a lifetime, only betting games like these would leave one with a big net profit. Lets get this one.

 

[shamrock]

your exactly correct J. Hawk, sharp money on Clemson

good luck

 

[gman2]

thor:

youre becoming too sensitive. who ever said i didnt like you analysis? the reason i even bother posting in your thread is because you are a capper whom i respect and can actually go back and forth with. for as good a site as this is, there are far too many guys who throw darts and will plunk down hundreds of dollars "just because".

again, i consider you to be a bright guy. and i would presume that you have taken a statistics course at KU. maybe you have. maybe you havent. but anyone with a background in math knows that its incredibly hard to have any sort of public opinion be greaten than, say, 60 or 65% to a certain side. so when i hear you say that "75% of the public is on so and so", i cant help but ask you if you really believe that. any legitimate understanding of sample sizes makes it pretty clear that its almost impossible.

again, if you were joe blow, i wouldnt even waste my time posting in your thread.

you see, im not telling you that your play is wrong. because im certainly going nowhere near this trash game between two scrub teams that underachieved this year.

but you are kidding yourself if you think vegas "knows something" or gives two shits about who wins an NIT game between two bad basketball teams.

wise guys pounding clemson would be quite the oxymoron. just like wise guys pounding louisville would be the same thing. no "wise" guy is going to be pounding any team in the ncaa junior tournament.

for some reason, a lot of people delude themselves into thinking every game they bet is either a public or non-public side. this whole anti-public thing has taken on a life of its own and its become almost comical.

whatever happened to just handicapping a basketball game. bet the side you like and you truly believe is the right side.

it seems so many people try to rationalize their losing plays by saying "well, the public has to win sometimes" but then they also rationalize their winning bets by saying they "sided with the books".

i think some people would rather lose money by "being different" than winning money by betting on the side they truly believe is correct.

bottom line is that vegas is not omniscient. they are just very well bankrolled and taking 10% extra when you lose and giving you even money when you win.

maybe you will read this and feel like i am being critical of your play or analysis. if thats the case, then you have completely missed the point. clemson could easily cover this game and win outirght. and i hardly disagree with your play, because louisville is terrible. i just think youre a much better capper than to just rationalize your play by saying that somebody knows something and 75% of the public is on louisville. because only the hardcore gamblers are betting NIT basketball. the true joe pub is waiting for thursday night to put down his 20 or 50 dollar wager on the ncaa tourney. and his other joe pub friend is waiting for the next nfl season to start.

.... so in the meantime, why not just handicap and bet the team you truly feel is better if you must bet the NIT?

 

[allholyone]

tough break :sadwave:

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

thor:

youre becoming too sensitive. who ever said i didnt like you analysis? the reason i even bother posting in your thread is because you are a capper whom i respect and can actually go back and forth with. for as good a site as this is, there are far too many guys who throw darts and will plunk down hundreds of dollars "just because".

again, i consider you to be a bright guy. and i would presume that you have taken a statistics course at KU. maybe you have. maybe you havent. but anyone with a background in math knows that its incredibly hard to have any sort of public opinion be greaten than, say, 60 or 65% to a certain side. so when i hear you say that "75% of the public is on so and so", i cant help but ask you if you really believe that. any legitimate understanding of sample sizes makes it pretty clear that its almost impossible.

again, if you were joe blow, i wouldnt even waste my time posting in your thread.

you see, im not telling you that your play is wrong. because im certainly going nowhere near this trash game between two scrub teams that underachieved this year.

but you are kidding yourself if you think vegas "knows something" or gives two shits about who wins an NIT game between two bad basketball teams.

wise guys pounding clemson would be quite the oxymoron. just like wise guys pounding louisville would be the same thing. no "wise" guy is going to be pounding any team in the ncaa junior tournament.

for some reason, a lot of people delude themselves into thinking every game they bet is either a public or non-public side. this whole anti-public thing has taken on a life of its own and its become almost comical.

whatever happened to just handicapping a basketball game. bet the side you like and you truly believe is the right side.

it seems so many people try to rationalize their losing plays by saying "well, the public has to win sometimes" but then they also rationalize their winning bets by saying they "sided with the books".

i think some people would rather lose money by "being different" than winning money by betting on the side they truly believe is correct.

bottom line is that vegas is not omniscient. they are just very well bankrolled and taking 10% extra when you lose and giving you even money when you win.

maybe you will read this and feel like i am being critical of your play or analysis. if thats the case, then you have completely missed the point. clemson could easily cover this game and win outirght. and i hardly disagree with your play, because louisville is terrible. i just think youre a much better capper than to just rationalize your play by saying that somebody knows something and 75% of the public is on louisville. because only the hardcore gamblers are betting NIT basketball. the true joe pub is waiting for thursday night to put down his 20 or 50 dollar wager on the ncaa tourney. and his other joe pub friend is waiting for the next nfl season to start.

.... so in the meantime, why not just handicap and bet the team you truly feel is better if you must bet the NIT?

Gman, I do appreciate your thoughts, seriously...

And I wasnt being sensitive... I know you dont agree with this style of handicapping. Thats all I was saying. I know you tend to cap analytically, as do I. There have been several instances this year when playing against a public team when the line is driven down by invisible forces was incredibly profitable... and again, I know you dont believe it terms like "public play" and all that... Any game Vegas puts out, they know they will get action on, and it would behoove them to find the best possible way to extract that, I think. So I would disagree when you say they dont give two shits about this game. I imagine they are as serious as a heart attack about every game they put out. Just my very humble opinion.

Thats all I was saying. I know you didnt mean any harm, and I wasnt offended or put off in the least. I appreciate your input 100%, because I know you are great at what you do, have experiance, and will say exactly what is on your mind. Any insight that you give me on any game is much appreciated. What I meant in my other post to you was that I knew you werent going to agree with the justification of the bet... thats all.

Of course, tonight Clemson did not cover. Thems the breaks. Will try to get 'em tomorrow (or more likely Thursday.).

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

tough break :sadwave:

I will assume that is sarcastic. However, we shall call a truce.

Despite what I and some others think of you personally, you have proved (in this avatar and the last) to be able to pick a winner.

I have been debating about whether to put your other post to me, from last week, as my signature. I may still do this. That action would not constitute a break in the truce. Just unintentional comedy.

GL in the future.

 

[gman2]

you couldnt be more wrong in saying that i dont believe in public plays.

unfortunately, way way too many people take a profitable concept and apply it to every single game on the board.

i can assure you, they do not give two fu.cks about clemson and louisville in the ncaa junior tournament. i didnt know whether to laugh or shake my head in disbelief when i saw some guy in the baseball forum say he was playing cuba tonight because "the public was on japan". it might have been the single funniest thing ive ever seen at madjacks. unfortunately, its not much different from the basketball forums where you see people talking about public plays in the metro atlantic or big sky conference.

i would go so far as to say that vegas got the upper hand on you tonight because you bet on a game you knew nothing about and did not intend to bet in the first place.

that is why vegas doesnt give two shits about the outcome of a meaningless NIT game. its all about volume. youre betting on games you would never be betting on just because you talk yourself into some kind of perceived anti-public play. when ive seen you handicap games you actually like, you are very good. but games like this can chunk away profits, and i think youre better than that.

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

you couldnt be more wrong in saying that i dont believe in public plays.

unfortunately, way way too many people take a profitable concept and apply it to every single game on the board.

i can assure you, they do not give two fu.cks about clemson and louisville in the ncaa junior tournament. i didnt know whether to laugh or shake my head in disbelief when i saw some guy in the baseball forum say he was playing cuba tonight because "the public was on japan". it might have been the single funniest thing ive ever seen at madjacks. unfortunately, its not much different from the basketball forums where you see people talking about public plays in the metro atlantic or big sky conference.

i would go so far as to say that vegas got the upper hand on you tonight because you bet on a game you knew nothing about and did not intend to bet in the first place.

that is why vegas doesnt give two shits about the outcome of a meaningless NIT game. its all about volume. youre betting on games you would never be betting on just because you talk yourself into some kind of perceived anti-public play. when ive seen you handicap games you actually like, you are very good. but games like this can chunk away profits, and i think youre better than that.

Thanks man.. I appreciate it...

I see where you are coming from.

You are probably right... and as was the case tonight, you were definately right.

I had been turning a nice profit in the post-season and probably over extended myself tonight...

 

[allholyone]

done............TRUCE!

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

done............TRUCE!

Done.

 

[allholyone]

hey thor thanks for the free advertising (your signature) i appreciate it..

hope you followed my plays today :SIB

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

hey thor thanks for the free adverting (your signature) i appreciate it..

hope you followed my plays today :SIB

No problem. You couldn't make that stuff up.

Didn't follow your plays. Unfortunately, I dont forsee that ever happening. GL, regardless.

God Bless!

 

[DeDe]

No problem. You couldn't make that stuff up.

Didn't follow your plays. Unfortunately, I dont forsee that ever happening. GL, regardless.

God Bless!

lmao what a fraud all holy one :mj07: :mj07: lol
jay we know it :mj07: :mj07:

love the quote; he should have been banned :sadwave:

gl jay and get em tom!

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Thor,

We were on the wrong side tonight (Clemson), but over the long run, there is no doubt in my mind that we will win more than we lose. Best of luck to you the rest of the way!