M-UUUGH-DAY

[Happy Hippo]

70-63-1 overall
6-7-1 last night
Spreads: 38-35-2
O/Us: 29-23-2
MLs: 1-2
1st half: 1-1
Team totals: 1-3




the hippo is not happy today two "losing" nights although managed to come up a little with some ML bets, but overall not good -

pissed at myself (& sorry for anyone who might have tailed the play) for betting on the horndogs last night when i capped a lakers cover and all my late plays really killed me as i was looking at a winning day early - i always have these problems on sundays with early & late games (discipline, discipline).... then got a speeding ticket on the way to work, so these plays could easily all be losers tonight the way my day's going...... :shrug:


SUNS -3/nets loss - wow - the nets annihilated them:bigun:

HORNETS/JAZZ UNDER 184 push

WIZ/WARRIORS OVER 215 loss - ended up betting Wizards Over 106.5 points for game, because I had a feeling it might not go over......and it didn't by one point

hopefully if you bet on these two O/Us you waited for the line movement (unlike me) and then you would have won


GOOD LUCK EVERYONE

 

[DeadPrez]

things will pick up hippo

this is a nice card tonite, i really like all the plays. i think you will be a happy hippo once again after the nite is through :SIB

gl man dance2 :spotting: dance2 :thumb: :thumb:

 

[WayneWonder]

Hippo...good luck with your plays tonight...I am trying to remain disciplined as well...No plays tonite, but I hope you come out a winner.

 

[Happy Hippo]

The PACERS & WARRIORS are my favorite teams to cap, so I just couldn?t resist doing one of these games tonight!!!! I can?t touch the Warriors game since I am just horrible at capping the Wizards, and for some reason they make me more mad than any other team when I bet on or against them and I lose! I did cap a Wiz 5 point victory ? it is a sort of homecoming for them (Arenas & Jamison ex-wizards) and the Warriors on a b-b, coming off two high road wins over playoff bound opponents?.. but I?ll go with the Pacers today?.



PACERS +7.5 win - predicted my third perfect score of the year 91-96 Heat (my second perfect Heat game - predicted 110-96 Heat @ Warriors on Jan 11

The Pacers look worth the $$ now with JO back in the lineup ? a little rusty, but the leadership is good for the team. The Pacers are 9-7 ATS vs opponents with winning records. They are 3-1 ATS this year as 7+ point dogs and 15-8 ATS when favored to lose by any amount. The Pacers have dominated the Heat recently, including winning 3 of their last 6 meetings in OT (this to me is the sign of a mature team & good coach ? young teams tend to collapse in overtime ? a perfect example being the raptors getting blown out in OT yesterday vs. the rockets who only lost by 2). The Pacers are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 vs the Heat.

The Heat have been getting big spreads from Vegas all year, because they are one of those teams that the public likes to bet on, with stars like Wade & Shaq. However, they have not proved worthy of these lines, with a 14-19-1 ATS record at home. They are 6-10 ATS at home vs teams with winning records and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 game vs teams with winning records. They are 10-15 ATS at home as a favorite of 6-9.5 points. They are 2-7 ATS at home in their last 9 vs eastern conf opponents.

Key to Pacers cover: DEFENSE

The Pacers should have a rebounding edge & be able to limit second chance points (which the Heat love-8th in the league in Off rebounds) with JO back and ZO out. The Pacers are 15-6-1 ATS on the road when allowing less than 100 points and 1-9 ATS when allowing more than 100. This stat shows how important defense is to winning games and covering spreads. I capped this game UNDER, and there are some trends to support this (Pacers 3-7 O/U last 10 on no rest, Pacers 0-6 O/U last 6 vs eastern conf opponents, Pacers 11-28 O/U last 39 games as dog, last 6 meetings avg score 184 points ? not including OT). The Heat are 7-5 SU at home when scoring less than 100 points and 2-10 ATS at home when scoring less than 100 points. The Heat only have an ATS winning home record when they score more than 110 points!!!

As playoff time nears, and we see matchups that may occur in the playoffs, look for better D (perfect example - nuggets @ suns two days ago - these two high scoring opponents barely put up 200 points total also nets @ pistons last night is a great example)... and Indy knows how to win games with defense.

 

[Happy Hippo]

after some speculation, I have decided that I should bet on the Wizards after all - here's my reasoning

1) although I am a horrible Wizards capper (16-18-2 47.1%), this must turn around sometime, and I am a good Warriors capper (23-8-1 74.2%) - when I averaged these percentages, I get a win percentage of 60.6%, so it is worthy of a play

2) the public is lovin' the Warriors after their two big wins

3) the Warriors are returning from a successful road trip and will relax a little upon their return home and they are on a b-b

4) like I said above, Jamison & Arenas are former Warriors players and want to have an impressive homecoming

5) the Wizards shot 41.1% from the field against the clipps and still managed 101 points, and they had an astounding 19 more shot attempts than the Clipps - they just shot like s*** - their "big 3" (butler, jamison, arenas) shot 30% from the field.... last time these two teams met the wizards shot 50% and I expect that kind of fg% tonight

6) when these teams met in february, the warriors shot 56% from the field, and the warriors still lost the game - baron davis had 28 points - and he won't be there tonight........

for what it's worth.....


WIZARDS +1 win - proud of this one!!!!



it is interesting that most other madjackers are on the warriors - if anyone has any reason why, i am interested to hear, as i try to improve my capping of the wizards.......

 

[DeadPrez]

nice job on the wizards and pacers hippo

feels good to cap a perfect game! (pacers)

tough break w/ the jazz and wizard totals but at least your on the right track

you'll come back strong tonite

good luck :SIB

 

[Happy Hippo]

DeadPrez

thanks - i was really disappointed about the line movement in the jazz & wizards total, but i had a warm feeling about the wizards all day, so i went large on the game and still managed to come up -

should have gone 4-1, but i'll still take a winning day and a perfect cap.......

on to today.....