Tuezday

[Happy Hippo]

72-65-5 overall
2-2-1 last night
Spreads: 40-36-2
O/Us: 29-24-3
MLs: 1-2
1st half: 1-1
Team totals: 1-3

tonight:
5-0 O/U
0-3 spreads :shrug:



:142smilie i just have to laugh because i bet on two totals last night where the line movement went out of my favor and i would have covered.... it was just one of those horrible mondays - hopefully a little better luck today -

here's my totals to start - i'm sure the lines will move out of my favor, but.................. :shrug:

BOBCATS/HAWKS OVER 204 win
WIZARDS/KINGS UNDER 210 win
SONICS/GRIZZLIES UNDER 200 win

back later with spreads.....

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE

 

[Happy Hippo]

adding

SUNS/BUCKS OVER 214 win

 

[Happy Hippo]

SONICS @ GRIZZLIES

The Sonics are not a good road team - they are 10-24 SU and 12-22 ATS on the road. They are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games, so they have not improved on the road over the season. The Sonics are 7-12 ATS vs western conf opponents on the road. They are 3-12 ATS vs teams with winning records and 8-19 ATS after a SU win.

The Grizzlies are solid at home this year, going 25-10 SU and 20-12-3 ATS. They are 12-8 ATS at home vs western conf teams. The Grizzlies are not a good offensive team (27th in the league at home), but they are a great team because of their defense. The Grizzlies have the best defense in the league at home, allowing opponents only 85.7 ppg. It is evident that the Grizzlies win games through defense when considering their SU & ATS record at home: 19-2 SU and 15-4-2 ATS when allowing opponents less than 90 points compared to 6-8 SU and 5-9 ATS when allowing opponents more than 90 points.

They are +6.8 points at home vs opponents on the year vs the Sonics -9 points vs opponents on the road. In their last five games, the Grizzlies are +13.8 points vs opponents and the Sonics are -1 points vs opponents. I?ve said it before, and I?ll say it many more times - DEFENSE wins games and covers spreads (ex. Suns & Nets last night - unbelievable).

The Sonics are only 1-18 ATS when scoring less than 100 points on the road. In their three meetings this season, the Grizzlies have limited the Sonics to 79.7 ppg, well under their scoring average.

prediction: 85-104 Grizzlies

GRIZZDOGS -7 loss
actual score: 98-97 Sonics

 

[Happy Hippo]

Look for the Suns to rebound big after a HUGE loss to the Nets last night. The Suns have only been ?blown out? in two other games this season -

Jan 17 Suns 90 - Kings 119 @ Sacramento
response:
Jan 18 Suns 112 - Clippers 102 @ L.A.

Mar 9 Suns 93 - Spurs 117 @ Phoenix
response:
Mar 11 Suns 110 - Wolves 102 @ Phoenix

I look for the same sort of response tonight against the Bucks. The Suns have owned the Bucks in the last few years, beating them 9 out of 10 times and going 7-2-1 ATS. They are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 in Milwaukee and 11-6 ATS vs teams with winning records on the road. The Suns are still one of the best road teams in the league, with a 19-13 SU & ATS record. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 on no rest, and they had plenty of rest in the fourth quarter last night anyway! It looks like there is a good chance Stoudemire is going to rest, so look for the Suns to get back to their running gunning style of play.

The Bucks are just not that good, despite their record. They have won more close games than any other team this season, and that is why their record looks good. They are 14-20 ATS at home and 5-8-1 ATS at home vs western conf opponents. They are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs teams with winning records. T. J. Ford is out and Mo Williams is questionable, and without two of their scorers, the Bucks will have problems keeping up with the Suns.

The Suns are +5.9 points vs eastern conf opponents.
The Bucks are -4.4 points vs western conf opponents.

Look for the Suns to come out strong tonight?

prediction: 118-105 Suns

SUNS -5.5 HUGE LOSS AGAIN
actual score: 110-132 Bucks :bigun:

 

[WayneWonder]

Great write-ups on today's plays.Very convincing. I parlayed Suns and Grizz after reading these. Good luck tonight.

Re: discipiline
Study it. Play it. Hit it. Don't worry about how many games you play if you have done the previous three steps.

 

[Happy Hippo]

final play tonight?????

MAGIC @ BULLS



this is a very public play, but I still like it and the public isn't always wrong!!.....

The Bulls are in the playoff hunt, only a half game behind the struggling Sixers. They have been playing well recently, despite losing 6 of their last 10 - they have had tough competition. The Bulls have won all of their last 6 games vs opponents with losing records by an average of 11.7 ppg. They are 4-0 ATS when favored to win by 5-5.5 points.

The Magic have struggled against the Bulls, covering only 2 spreads out of their last 10 matchups, and they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs the Bulls.

Once again, the key to a Bulls cover is defense. The Magic are 29th in the league in fg attempts/game while the Bulls are 5th, so the Bulls have a better chance to dictate the pace of the game. But part of the reason the Magic are 29th in fg attempts/game is because they are the 4th in fg% (47%) in the league and 2nd in fg% on the road (46.6%). Due to their low fg/attempts game and their great fg%, one can infer that they take a lot of inside shots. The Magic are 29th in the league in 3 pointers made/game at 3.6, which emphasizes their lack of outside shooters. This will be a problem for them against the Bulls who defend the paint well - 1st in the league in fg% defense, allowing only 42.6% and 41.7% at home. The Bulls are the 3rd best rebounding team in the league, and this should help them further control the tempo of the game. They are a great 9-1 ATS at home when allowing less than 90 points and 7-17 ATS when allowing more than 90 points, and I think they can keep the Magic below this number. In their last 8 meetings, the Bulls have held the Magic to 88.6 ppg.

There is some supporting trends that the game will go UNDER and if it does, this also favors the Bulls, as outlined above:

Magic/Bulls 0-7 O/U last 7 meetings in Chicago
Bulls 2-8 O/U last 10 played
Bulls 0-4 O/U last 4 as home favorite
Magic 2-7 O/U following SU win
Magic 1-4 O/U last 5 as dog

prediction: 87-98 Bulls

BULLS -5 loss

actual score: 97-93 Magic

 

[Happy Hippo]

this is probably the final play........

didn't see this one earlier in the day - just noticed it & love it


CLIPPERS/SPURS UNDER 187 win

 

[junglecat]

good luck on your play.