Tuesday Plays

[WayneWonder]

Updated Record

Overall: 22-24-1 (-$11.90)
Sides: 10-10-1 (-$45.50)
Totals: 6-8 (-$127.30)
Halftimes/Quarters: 2-2 (-$9.10)
Moneylines: 4-4 (+170.00)

All bets are $50.00 unless otherwise specified

Two early plays:

Charlotte -3 Winner
Dallas +5.5 Loser

I'll be back with write-ups in next few hours.

 

[Happy Hippo]

great call on the Suns-Nets UNDER last night - could almost count your $$$ in the first half!!!!

i'm interested to read your writeups on these games today - i also capped a dallas cover and i like the bobcats, but capped a very close game......

GOOD LUCK TODAY

 

[WayneWonder]

Charlotte -3

Atlanta comes into Charlotte having dropped six straight on the road. A big reason for their losing streak has been a "Philadelphia 76ers"-level commitment to defense. They have been giving up an average of 103 pp/g during the current six game slide and allowed all but one of those opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field.

Charlotte has lost three straight but has shown good effort in two of the three losses, taking Cleveland to OT before losing by 2 and scoring 95 pts against a Memphis team that is tops in def. pts against @ home. They have actually been a pretty good team at home as of late winning 3 of the last 6 SU, posting a perfect 5-0-1 ATS record over the same span. In two losses, a 108-103 setback to Detroit and 106-105 OT loss to Miami, Charlotte was actually ahead at the half against the Eastern Conf. two best teams.

At this point in the season, when two teams of this caliber meet, there is not much on the line except for pride. The home team has a little more incentive as they want to get fans excited about next season with a good effort in their last few home games, leaving a good taste in their mouth over the long summer. Charlotte is actually 4-2 against Atlanta over their two years as an NBA franchise,tied for the most wins against one opponent with Orlando.

**Atlanta is 0-2 this season as a dog of 3-3.5 points.

 

[WayneWonder]

Dallas +5.5

Detroit is coming off their first loss at home in regulation since March 28 of last year. Almost one full calender year!! :scared That is an amazing stat. But now that the streak is no longer intact, I expect Detroit to start to play more reserves, keeping their starting lineup fresh for the start of the playoffs.

Dallas enters tonight's game pretty banged up as well, with both Josh Howard and Devin Harris expected to miss tonights game.

Simply put, this game means more to Dallas than Detroit at this point in the season. Barring anything major, Detroit should close the regular season as the top seed in the East, currently enjoying an 8.5 game edge over Miami with 13 games remaining. Dallas is tied with San Antonio for the best record in the West and has crept to within 1.5 games of Detroit for the best overall record and home-court throughout the playoffs.

Detroit was embarrassed by Dallas earlier this season and may be playing up the revenge angle to get up for this game. Detroit is 4-2 straight up in ?revenge games? ? games where they have lost the season?s previous meeting - but only 2-4 ATS in those games.

Detroit is just 2-3 ATS in their L5 home games while Dallas is 3-1 SU/ATS in their L4 on the road. This should be a tight game similar to the 82-73 "thriller" Detroit played with Miami the other night. I look for Detroit to do just enough to come away with a victory but no cover.

**Dallas is 7-4 ATS on the road vs an opponent .500 or better.

 

[Happy Hippo]

like both the plays tonight - nice job

i also think that Charlotte has better fundamentals than the Hawks, and this is something i always consider when betting on a game....

GL tonight - I'll be on these games with you too :grins:

 

[WayneWonder]

Womens NCAA Winnings Parlay

The women have been so kind to me over the past few weeks helping to keep me in the game while I have struggled in other areas. It is only right that I give something back. So I am doing something that is totally out of character, playing a 5-team parlay on tonight's NBA games.

Mar 28 4:21pm 5 Team Parlay - Pending 10.00 to win 200.00
1. Basketball - Dallas Mavericks/Detroit Pistons - total Under 178? (-110)
for the entire game held on Mar 28 at 7:35pm [pending]
2. Basketball - Atlanta Hawks/Charlotte Bobcats - total Over 204? (-110)
for the entire game held on Mar 28 at 7:35pm [pending]
3. Basketball - Phoenix Suns/Milwaukee Bucks - total Over 215 (-110)
for the entire game held on Mar 28 at 8:05pm [pending]
4. Basketball - Memphis Grizzlies - spread -7? (-110)
for the entire game held on Mar 28 at 8:05pm [pending]
5. Basketball - Chicago Bulls - spread -5? (-110)
for the entire game held on Mar 28 at 8:35pm [pending]

 

[WayneWonder]

Small play on the Wiz ML for the 2nd half. +380

 

[WayneWonder]

Lassie.... :mj23: ...take that winner to the bank.

I owe it all to the copious amounts of :weed: and :drinky: that were consumed this evening for giving me the balls to pull the trigger on the ML instead of just playing it safe with Wiz +7.5.

 

[Happy Hippo]

:mj07: :mj07:

just proof that :drinky: and :weed: can be good for your decision making


great call WW - you should have been 3-0 (minus the parlay)- Dallas was covering the whole game...

:toast:

 

[SpursDynasty]

:weed: :weed: <----- I love this.

 

[WayneWonder]

I also played (but did not post, tailed Hippo) Spurs under 184.5. The final score was Spurs 98-87 or 185 total points. That is the third time in the last week I have played a game that came down to half a point and I have been on the losing end of all three.

Atlanta @ Philadelphia...ATL +8.5 Final 115-106 Philadelphia
Indiana @ Memphis...Under 179.5 Final 105-75 Memphis
San Antonio @ Los Angeles Uner 184.5 Final Spurs 98 Clippers 87

In last nite's game the "losing" points were scored on a breakaway dunk with 0:13 seconds left by the Clips who had no chance to win or cover.

In Indiana's game the "losing" points were scored with 0:09 seconds by Antonio Burks (who??) of Memphis trying to get some garbage points and maybe impress the coaches in what was already a 30-point blowout.

Finally in the Atlanta game they were losing by 22 entering the fourth quarter and actually whittled the lead down to nine points. On their final possesion, Josh Smith knows they cannot win and instead of launchng a three and maybe helping with the cover, he drives to the hoop for a layup with 0:02 seconds remaining allowing the Sixers to hold on for a nine-point win instead of an 8-point win.

Sorry to vent but these have been three tough beats at the end of games that have all occured since last Wedensday. They also have all occured due to line movement not in my favor. Last nite the line opened at 186.5 and I was able to get it at 184.5, Philadelphia opened as a 7-point fave, closed at -9, but I was locked in at 8.5, and finally the Pacers total opened at 180 but I was "lucky" enough to get it at 179.5.

This is one of the few times I will publicly complain about bad beats..so thanks for listening.

 

[Happy Hippo]

i had some horrible spread picks last night and hope i didn't cost you too much $$ ----- sucks that you got the clipps line at 184.5, too.... i agree it is horrible when players make pointless baskets at the ends of games (i don't think anyone will ever forget Deron Williams pointless 3 against the Mavs in Utah to blow the Mavs cover), but i just try to count on that happening now so when it doesn't happen i feel lucky :look:

Line movement can be good or bad - i agree that it seems like it turns out bad more than not, but if it is moving out of your favor, it is probably a good sign, too...

i did an analysis of 10 random teams from the NBA, and i found that the opening vs. closing line affects the ATS winner 5.37% of the time and the O/U 6.3% of the time. in the last few days, i have also had two lines move out of my favor and lost/pushed bets.

since i have been posting, i have lost 4 O/Us by a combined 4 points (one by 2, one by 1, and the other two by a half point). this and other factors have convinced me that half points especially are fairly worthless - i would rather pay the extra juice and push than get the line with a half point (for ex. I had the Spurs-Clipps UNDER 182.5 on 3/7 and the final score was 183).

where do you bet? i put an extra unit on the clipps UNDER right before the game and i got the line at 185 on pinnacle. i used to bet at a lot of different places, but found that pinnacle is by far the best, mainly because you can choose your juice - i did pay little more for this line (-112), but it equals out with other bets (i got the Wizards +8 at -104) and in the end you end up paying less juice and getting the lines you want.

good luck WW and don't let those lines get you