WayneWonder Wednesday

[WayneWonder]

Overall: 24-25-1 (+173.65)
Sides: 11-11-1 (-$49.95)
Totals: 6-8 (-$127.30)
Halftimes/Quarters: 2-2 (-$9.10)
Moneylines: 5-4 (+360.00)

Indiana -6.5

The Pacers are probably everybody's pick today as an easy winner which makes me a little nervous as we saw what happenend to the heavily supported Bulls last night. Another worrisome factor is that Atlanta is actually 3-0 this season against the Pacers. They have won every way imaginable against Indiana this year, including an overtime win, a win in which they shot 54% from the field and one back in November where they were outshot 42% to 35% and still managed a two point victory.

Atlanta would probably be thrilled to hold an opponent to 42% shooting these days as they have been giving up an average of 107.4 pp/g on 51.4% shooting over their L5. The Pacers, on the other hand have held their L5 opponents to an avg. of 88 pp/g on 42% shooting.

Atlanta allowed Charlotte to score 125 points in an overtime game last night and have to be wondering if they will win another game this season. They came back from a 5 point deficit at the half only to lose by 8 in OT. They have not finished closer than 7 points in any of their last five games and are only 1-15 SU this season playing on no rest. Not exactly the kinds of numbers that inspire a lot of confidence.

If the Pacers play any kind of defense tonight, this should be an easy cover. They allowed Atlanta to shoot over 49% in both wins during this calender year, but I suspect that will change tonight.

The Pacers have won their L5 games as a favorite of 6-6.5 points this season. They are a perfect 5-0 ATS in those games with an avg. margin of victory of 17.8 pts. For the season they are 6-2 ATS against that number.

 

[WayneWonder]

Dallas @ Cleveland Over 184

These two teams met two weeks ago in Dallas with the Mavs coming back from a 19-point deficit to steal a win from the Cavs, 91-87 (178 total). The Cavs were held to just 8 third quarter points in that game, helping to keep the total under the posted 185.

This play is based on the fact that they will not be held to just eight points in any quarter. In that game, Dallas played w/out Howard, Griffin and Harris so injuries should not play a factor for Dallas. Also, the Mavs had just 34 points in the first half, something else I feel is not likely to repeat itself.

Cleveland has played 12-4 under the total in their last 16 games, but a closer look reveals that 3 of those overs were at Quicken Loans Arena. In fact, Cleveland has avg'd. 198.6 total pts in their L5 home games. Over the Mavs L5 games on the road the total has avg'd. 186.1 points, and 188.75 in their L4 road games against Eastern conf. teams.

If Dallas was able to shoot 49% and score 90 points against a Detroit team, IN DETROIT, than I feel they should be able to match those numbers against a Cleveland team that doesn't make the same commitment to defense.

 

[WayneWonder]

Adding...Memphis ML +220

As my physics instructor taught us, what goes up must come down. Memphis is no pushover team either, having won seven straight before last night's setback. Also Memphis destroyed Jersey 81-69 on Jan. 13 despite getting only nine points from Gasol. They were able to hold NJ to just 35% shooting and forced 17 turnovers. While I don't expect such a sloppy game this time out, I feel the Grizz wil show their teeth and get the job done.

May not play it till about 4:00 EST as I feel the line may climb even higher.

I am locked in at +220...like Hippo said, line has nowhere to go but down from here.

 

[Happy Hippo]

WW

great looking plays tonight again

i'm going large on the Memphis ML too - Nets are overdue for a loss now....

GL

 

[WayneWonder]

Final Play...Seattle ML +160

I just don't see how Houston can be favored over anybody. I know that Seattle is coming off two tough games in the past three days (wins over Memphis and San Antonio) but they should be able to handle a Houston team that is 1-7 in their L8 (3-5 ATS).

It has been well documented how awful Houston is @ home this season (10-26 ATS) and they have averaged just 84.3 pp/g in the eight games since McGrady was sidelined with a back injury. Seattle has scored no less than 96 points in any of their L9 games and should be able to simply outscore the Rockets, who have yet to hold any opponent under 88 points w.out McGrady (not that he is a great defender by any means).

This line looks too easy...as Terrell Owens once said, "If it looks like a rat and smells like a rat, it probably is a rat". I think the line is in Houston's favor due to the fact they have won five straight against the Sonics, but Seattle should get the job done tonight and +160 looks too good to pass up.

 

[WayneWonder]

Halftime Play...Detroit Pistons Pick

Expecting the Sixers to play typical "Sixer basketball" in the fourth quarter...that is lay down and play dead.

 

[WayneWonder]

Not the best night... 2-3 (-$59.10):sadwave:

Indiana -6.5--Loss
Dallas/Cleveland Over 184.5--Winner
Memphis ML--Loss
Seattle ML--Loss :banghead:
Pistons Pick 2nd half--Winner

Also played Boston-Knicks Over 204.5, but did not post so doesn't count towards my overall record.