Nabisco Championship

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Cristie Kerr to win 18/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Kerr has rather slipped under the radar this year as she has not been playing in the final couple of groups each weekend, but she has finished in the top-10 in each of her four starts this season, not recorded a single round over par and finished 4th in her last outing two weeks ago. So with finishes of 3rd, 11th, 5th and 3rd in the last four years here, the stats point quite clearly to another high finish from Kerr, so odds of 14/1 and above should represent value this week.

Michelle Wie to win 20/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Wie is not the sort of player who would want to be under the radar and that is something that she revels in, but it has yet to result in a win on this Tour. There is a decent chance that it will happen this week, but, rather like Kerr, it is her consistency that suggests that a place payout should be highly likely. In her last four starts, she has finished in the top-3 three times and was in 2nd place after 36 holes after which she was disqualified for an incorrect drop/signing for an incorrect scorecard. And with three appearances in this event as an amateur, she has finished in the top-15 every time, including 4th place two years ago. She is still a long way short of Annika in ability, but she is more than just a big-hitter as she showed in her previous start when she ranked 1st in greens in regulation and she is undeniably getting closer and closer to that maiden Tour win. As with Kerr, odds of no more than 14/1 had been expected.

Aree Song to win 66/1 e.w. @ Expekt ['w/o Annika Sorenstam' market]
Struggled, as so many do, in her second full season on Tour with just two top-10 finishes, only half as many as in 2004. But her return to form has been evident this season. In her opening event, she entered the final round in 5th place, before finishing in 11th and in the last LPGA Tour event, her third of the season, she finished 3rd. And that is her highest finish on Tour since the 2004 Nabisco Championship and it her history in this event that makes her particularly good value at these odds. In 2004, she entered the final round tied with Grace Park and it took a birdie at the last hole from Park to deny the then-17-year-old a playoff. And it wasn't the first time that she had been playing in the final group in the last round as she had done the same when making her debut in this event in 2000 when just 13 years old. There has never been any question over her talent and this looks to be the perfect course for her to display it.

 

[ridle]

Diaz 200/1 w/o Sorenstam 1/4 1-5 @ Golfinggods
a bit too high in my eyes.

Also, there are some interesting wild cards this week:
Martinez 1/4 1-5 @200/1 Ggods
Michaels 1/4 1-5 @250/1 Ggods
Grzebien w/o Sorenstam 1/4 1-5 500/1 Skybet

sydnee michaels
High school senior, committed to UCLA

Though still in high school, Sydnee Michaels is already an old pro at big golf tournaments. The senior at Linfield Christian High School in Temecula is ranked fourth in the nation by a national magazine and received a sponsor's exemption to the Kraft Nabisco Championship in Rancho Mirage on March 30-April 2. She was granted the exemption in large part because she was the only female to play in the California State Men's Championship in 2005.

Although she ' s one of the top-ranked juniors in the country, was 3-0 in the 2004 Junior Solheim Cup, and has won her share of tournaments, she thinks being invited to the Nabisco is her greatest achievement to date.

?I was the first alternate for the U.S. Women's Open in 2004 and, even though I didn't get to play, I got all the perks,? Michaels said. ?It was definitely an eye-opening experience and I knew that's where I wanted to be for the level of competition and the lifestyle. I loved it.?

As a proven winner on the course, Michaels isn't looking at her first competition with the best players in the game as an exhibition.

?I want to go for it. I'm preparing for it, practicing really hard and I want to do as well as I can,? she said. ?I definitely want to make the cut and maybe more.?

Michaels' first sporting love was ice skating, but after a growth spurt at the age of 8 ended that dream, she turned her attention to tennis. But that ?killed my feet,? so she thought she'd try golf and started playing in tournaments at the age of 12 and quickly realized she was ?as good or better? than most of the other players.

Michaels, who averages about 255 yards off the tee, has committed to UCLA.

?It has a great golf program, the best coach and it's close enough to home,? she said.



Anna Grzebien, a sophomore star at Duke University, has been named the Honda Award Winner in Golf. The Rhode Island native claimed individual medalist honors at the 2005 NCAA Championship while leading the Duke women's golf team to its third NCAA crown. Grzebien became only the third Blue Devil to win the NCAA Individual Championship after finishing with a final score of 286.

Grzebien was named NGCA First Team All-America and All-ACC in 2004-05 as she registered a career-best 73.88-stroke average to go along with four top-5, five top-10 and nine top-20 finishes. In her last three tournaments, Grzebien posted two victories and one second-place finish, including medalist honors in the East Regional.

An Interview With Maru Martinez

RHONDA GLENN: Ladies and gentlemen, Maru Martinez, runner up at the 2005 U.S. Women's Amateur. I know you're a little bit emotional and I bet Morgan is, too. It was a tough battle out there. Where did you feel like it maybe started to slip away?
MARU MARTINEZ: I tried not to think that way. Definitely on 16, 17 and 18 I started to play not to not play well, and I noticed that it was like my body wasn't responding the way I wanted it to. So I think it's that I was probably tired, because I just tried the same thing but nothing went right.

RHONDA GLENN: What were your thoughts at lunch, on the break, to try to regroup?

MARU MARTINEZ: Well, I thought it was going to be good for me to take a break. I thought it was probably that I was tired and I needed to rest a little bit. I mean, when I came out on the second round, I came out with the best thoughts. 4 down is nothing, you know, you can make four birdies and come back, but it never happened.

RHONDA GLENN: You made a lot of friends this week, even though you didn't make all the birdies you wanted to.

MARU MARTINEZ: Yes, I did, and that was great.

Q. Can you talk about, Morgan was just firing lasers all day, what is that like as an opponent when you know that she's going to knock the ball within ten feet of the hole?

MARU MARTINEZ: Well, I knew it was going to be that way, but I wasn't scared because I was playing that way, too. I didn't feel like I couldn't do it myself. I knew if I had played well, it was going to be a tough match because she's a great player. But I didn't give myself a chance today, and she played well. She played her game just like she had been playing this week.

So I wasn't intimidated at all. I knew it was going to be that way from the first moment I knew I was playing against her today.

Q. Was there a point on that front nine where you started to depressed a little bit, because when it starts to get to 5, 6, 7, you hit the ball in the water on par 5?

MARU MARTINEZ: I just had to laugh, (laughter), because I didn't do that the whole week. And like I said, it was like my body wasn't responding the way I wanted it to. I can't tell you what happened. It was I didn't feel it was my routine or my mindset. It just happened. Golf is like that sometimes.

RHONDA GLENN: Some observers said they felt that you were pressing on the third nine. You talk about pressing, I think swinging a little harder, trying to force it?

MARU MARTINEZ: I was trying to get it back to kind of push myself in the back and say, hey, come on, just wake up and let's start playing some golf. I couldn't; I mean, there was nothing I could do today.

RHONDA GLENN: Unfortunately I didn't get to see every hole, but I did see Morgan in the bunker on 9. Was that the only shot in the bunker today?

MARU MARTINEZ: I think so. She played very well today.

RHONDA GLENN: And you were not in any bunkers, were you?

MARU MARTINEZ: No. No, she made up and down, though oh, no, she didn't.

RHONDA GLENN: And you managed to avoid the famous double digit club of which I'm a member and Carol Semple Thompson is a member and Tony Wiesner is a member, that's when you lose like 11 & 10.

MARU MARTINEZ: Well, I'm glad. (Laughter).

Q. What was your dad telling you to encourage you?

MARU MARTINEZ: Just keep going, keep trying, you can do it, believe in yourself. I did. I tried. You know, it's tough when you're out there and your game is not is not good. You know, it's just like, what should you do, you can't really work on your swing or anything. I didn't feel like my swing was wrong today. I just couldn't do it. I just, I don't know, it was weird.

RHONDA GLENN: After the rain, the clubs that you were hitting, your approach shots into the greens on the second 18, were those clubs longer than the clubs you used this morning when it was dry?

MARU MARTINEZ: Yes. The course was a little bit wet today, and I had longer shots into the greens today. Yeah, definitely the second 18 holes, or the second nine were longer, played longer than in the morning.

RHONDA GLENN: Did you hit quite a few fairway woods on the second 18?

MARU MARTINEZ: No. On 9, I did, on 6 I did.

RHONDA GLENN: Long irons in?

MARU MARTINEZ: Yeah, it was playing longer.

Q. Did you notice your teammates with all of the face paint today?

MARU MARTINEZ: Yes, of course. I really appreciate them being here. Like I said, the support has been amazing and that's really incredible. It's the first time I feel that it was the first time in the finals of a championship like this. It's really exciting and I can't wait until I get to the LPGA Tour. I love it.

Q. Were you familiar with the whole Rudy thing?

RHONDA GLENN: That's like the boxer, Rudy Martinez.

Q. Did you know what that was all about?

MARU MARTINEZ: They called me everybody. They give me a new nickname every week. (Laughter). We have such a great team and it's really fun to be a part of Auburn.

Q. Do you know the Rudy character, the "Rudy" movie from Notre Dame; he's an undersized football player that gets to play the game?

MARU MARTINEZ: No. Actually Coach invented that one. I don't know if she was talking about the movie or not.

RHONDA GLENN: Did you get nervous at any point today?

MARU MARTINEZ: I was nervous this morning.

RHONDA GLENN: Teeing off?

MARU MARTINEZ: Yes, but it was normal. It wasn't anything I think I this is a good experience for me. Like you said, you know, the first time I was in the semifinals was three years ago and I lost. I think being in the finals is a completely different thing and it's great. It feels great and I think it's going to be good for me in the n future because I've learned a lot from this round. Now I know what I have to work on.

RHONDA GLENN: What's your next event?

MARU MARTINEZ: College. I'm going to take a break, spend time with my family, have one week off, one week ask a half before I start school again. So looking forward to it.

Q. You're in the Open next year.

MARU MARTINEZ: Yes, I am. That's great. I've been alternate, I've tried to qualify for three years, for the past three years. The first two years I lost in the playoff for the last spot. This year I missed it by a shot.

RHONDA GLENN: Will we see you at next year's Women's Amateur?

MARU MARTINEZ: I don't know. I hope so, yes. I think I will still be an amateur at that time.

Q. What do you see down the road for Morgan, for her career?

MARU MARTINEZ: Oh, she's a great player. I think everybody has a different path and she's working hard. She's doing it all. That's what everybody has to do, you know. I think she's a good example because she's so young and such a good player. So I really I'm sure she's going to have a lot of great things along her career.

RHONDA GLENN: Maru, you're very small of stature but you've got a huge heart, and we congratulate and hope to see you again soon. Thank you.


FastScripts by ASAP Sports ...

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (total stake per play: 2pts unless stated)

Yuri Fudoh to beat Laura Diaz -125 @ The Greek
Opposing Diaz who has only just returned from her pregnancy and is not, on the evidence of the last Tour event, not yet ready for tournament golf. She hardly practised and shot 73-82 to miss the cut by a very large margin. By contrast, Fudoh has won one of her three starts in Japan this year and, while not a likely contender for the title, is at least competitive when she plays on this Tour.

Michele Redman to beat Meena Lee +105 @ Pinnacle
Attractive on a player who has finished behind her opponent just once in the last eight months. On that occasion, Lee won the Fields Open in Hawaii, but the last Tour event was more the norm: Redman finished eleven shots ahead of Lee. And with Lee making her debut in this event and Redman having made the cut in all her nine previous appearances, there is little to suggest that this week will be any different.

Michele Redman to beat Liselotte Neumann -118 @ Centrebet
After such a strong finish to the 2005 season, Neumann's form this year has been rather a surprise. She has missed two cuts in three events and two of her seven rounds have been in the eighties. Redman comes into this event having been challenging for the Safeway International title for most of the week and has not missed a cut since June 2005. That should be enough of an edge in this matchup.

Mi Hyun Kim to beat Liselotte Neumann -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds [4pts]
Did consider Kim for the outrights, but happy to side with her in the matchups instead. She was particularly impressive in the MasterCard Classic earlier this month and does have a very good record in this event, finishing 7th and 5th in the last two years, for example. This is a short course that suits her game and with Neumann struggling so much this year, Kim should not need to a high finish to prevail in this matchup.

Karen Stupples to beat Soo-Yun Kang -110 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Kang is another who has surprisingly struggled this year with 24th being her best finish so far. And with finishes of 62nd and a post-rd1 withdrawal in this event, she looks unlikely to finish any higher this week. Stupples can count one top-5 finish already in 2006 and each of her three finishes in this event have been higher than Kang's best finish of 2006.

Catriona Matthew to beat Grace Park -130 @ The Greek [4pts]
A back injury ruined Park's season last year and while she now says that the pain is now virtually gone, she has been forced to remodel her swing and the results have not been good. She has missed her last three cuts and while trailing Matthew 6-12-0 over the past year, the only times that she has finished ahead of the Scot have been when Matthew has finished outside the top-20. This looks like a straightforward win unless Matthew is helpful to her opponent.

 

[Stanley]

Further matchup play (2pts)

Kate Golden to beat Kelly Robbins -130 @ Five Dimes
Five Dimes have just posted their matchups for this event and one stands out: a chance to oppose Robbins didn't play again last year after the MasterCard Classic in the first week of March due to a back injury. She made her return to the Tour in the last event and missed the cut. Kate Golden is also unlikely to make the cut this week, but as she did finish 14 shots ahead of Robbins after just 36 holes in the event two weeks ago, that is convincing enough to back her to repeat the feat. Only time will tell if this return to the Tour is too early for Robbins and her back.

 

[pharlap]

72 hole matchup

Catriona Matthew -120 to beat Karrie Webb

At 5Dimes

 

[pharlap]

Further 72 hole matchup

Kim Saiki -128 vs Meg Mallon

At 5Dimes

 

[Agent 0659]

To win:

Juli Inskter 34/1

1/2 unit

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

OOPS I'm brain dead--missed thread all ready up--will transfer plays here--sorry.
Been hectic getting ready to leave for golf trip Sunday--Will miss 1st couple days of Masters--what a bummer

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Yesterday, 02:08 PM
DOGS THAT BARK
Registered User Join Date: Jul 1999
Location: Bowling Green Ky
Posts: 8,446

Kraft Nabisco Championship

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

72 holes @ Oly
Fudoh -125 over Diaz
Mathews -110 over Grace Park

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#2 Today, 11:29 AM
DOGS THAT BARK
Registered User Join Date: Jul 1999
Location: Bowling Green Ky
Posts: 8,446

adding 72 holes @ 5dimes
SOO-YUN KANG (TOURN) -124 over LAURA DAVIES (TOURN)

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

2nd rd
Outrights to place top 5
Gulbis 12/1
Jang 10/1

Match
Kerr -155 over Davies @ Expeckt ties lose

I believe this ties highest odds I've bit off in past 6 years.
Reason for madness--Davies best fade I know on tight fairways and significant rough--as very aggresive player and wild off tee. Her +3 yesterday was quite amazing considring she only hit 6 fairways--generally she goes for broke when not in contention and would not surprise to see her double that # today.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

3rd rd
Wie -125 over Ochoa @ 5dimes

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 1-2; +0.00pts

Kerr 35th
Wie 3rd
Song 39th

There has been frustration with the outrights in all the events this week and none moreso than this one. It looked like a two-player event for most of the weekend and Wie gradually wheeled in her opponent and overtook her with five holes to play. But Webb had been catching the leaders fast, but it still took a holed pitching wedge from 116 yards on the final hole for eagle for her to snatch the lead for herself. Ochoa would also eagle the final hole when she hit a 5-wood into 6-feet, but it was still Wie's to win. She had a 25-foot chip for the title, but she showed her real age and ran it 10 feet by, which she missed and so missed out on a place in the playoff. Rather disappointing.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 6-1; +8.90pts

Fudoh/Diaz WON by 8
Redman/Lee WON by 6
Redman/Neumann WON by 10
Kim/Neumann WON by 1
Stupples/Kang WON by 17
Matthew/Park LOST by 10
Golden/Robbins WON by 3

At last, some normality to this year's matchups. The only concerning feature was that it was one
of the double-plays that lost and the other one won by a single shot when a tied match would have meant a lost wager and an overall deficit on the plays.

LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 5-12; -4.02pts
Matchups: 10-9; -2.94pts