American Idol odds, where's the value?

[HeavyHitter]

201 Sick 3 - Daughtry, McPhee, and Hicks
-222
202 Field
+194

Who will last longer? (win=longest)
401 Chris Daughtry
-374
402 Taylor Hicks
+318
Who will last longer? (win=longest)
403 Elliot Yamin
+173
404 Ace Young
-191
Who will last longer? (win=longest)
405 Lisa Tucker
+297
406 Paris Bennett
-343
Who will last longer? (win=longest)
407 Katherine McPhee
-412
408 Kellie Pickler
+356
Who will last longer? (win=longest)
411 Chris Daughtry
-158
412 Katharine McPhee
+141
Who will last longer? (win=longest)
415 Kellie Pickler
-273
416 Elliot Yamin
+237
Who will last longer? (win=longest)
417 Paris Bennett
-194
418 Ace Young
+176
Who will last longer? (win=longest)
419 Mandisa
+101
420 Taylor Hicks
-117

Will Bucky Covington be eliminated on 03/29/2006 ?
701 Yes
-185
702 No
+167

Tue 3/28
Who will be eliminated on 03/29/2006?
801 Bucky Covington
-185
802 Lisa Tucker
+327
803 Elliot Yamin
+684
804 Paris Bennett
+2500
805 Kellie Pickler
+2500
806 Ace Young
+2500
807 Taylor Hicks
+8000
808 Mandisa
+8000
809 Katharine McPhee
+10000
810 Chris Daughtry
+11000



any fans have thoughts?

 

[3 Seconds]

I like these two:

Hicks +318 over Daughtry....despite popular belief CD wont win this thing. How many covers of a cover can this guy do?? He is a fraud. Taking credit for "CHANGING" Walk the Line & making it his is a joke. He just took Live's version of the song & copied it exactly. Live changed that song not Chris.

Elliot +173 over Ace Young.

Ace & his "good" looks are wearing off already. Once the contests get down to 7 or so, cute aint going to cut it.

Would also consider Lisa Tucker for elimination on 3/29 @ +327 or whatever it was.....the girl has no group of core voters....could cost her next week.

 

[StevieD]

I am thinking that Lisa might go next week. Bucky is probably the weakest of the bunch but he might do okay with this weeks song style. Of course Chris will do the same thing he has done every week and Simon will praise him while calling anyone else out for not leaving their comfort zone.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

Hicks +318 over Daughtry....despite popular belief CD wont win this thing. How many covers of a cover can this guy do?? He is a fraud. Taking credit for "CHANGING" Walk the Line & making it his is a joke. He just took Live's version of the song & copied it exactly. Live changed that song not Chris.

.

THE ENTIRE SHOW IS COVERS. they never sing an original song. just because he did a cover of a cover doesn't mean he's not talented. he's one of the top 3 singers left. he never took credit for it. the judges just never heard that version before. and its not copied exactly, he did change the arrangement. listen to it again. and from a handicapping standpoint, less than one percent if that of voters ever heard the live version or knew it existed so it doesn't matter.

chris might not win, but he's one of only 3 who can with mchpee and possibly pickler. i like taylor, but he's wearing thin and doesn't have near as strong a voice as some others.

as for value, theres little left out there if you don't already have positions. the only thing i can come up with is pickler sitting at 10. she will hit 20 at one point on the wsex market but she can't win.

pickler- hot and dumb won't win. great story. beat the meat material, but wouldn't want to wake up next to her.

mandisa- strongest (not best) voice ever on show, but man is she fat. not normal fat, but who ate the fking kids fat.

chris- win or lose, will be on tour with his own band or anothers within the year. you might not like his kind of music, but he can bring it.

elliot- jesus. he can sing, but who sat on his face. and what can he possibly sing that any sane american under the age of 50 would buy.

bucky- wanna be kid rock. gets a bad rap, for hillbilly music, he's pretty good. will be playing the southern bar scene for a while. can't win.

mcphee- hasn't sang one song i've liked so far, but she can sing. chris' only real competition. big fat ass though. way big. bigger than you would expect.

ace- i'm a straight man and i think he's hot. wtf. when he opens his mouth i cringe though. i hate homo music and he's the king of it. he's wearing thin on a lot of people and no straight men are voting for him, so he can't last.

paris- boring, but a nice girl. won't win

lisa- going home next week if elliot or bucky don't. not worth the time, but she's cute.

taylor- personally i like him, but he's such a wild card. if he went home next week it wouldn't surprise me and if he won the damn thing it wouldn't surprise me either. i just don't think he will imo. he's not the best singer though contrary to popular belief.

and to all those chris haters, all he sings is alternative rock....wtf what do you want him to sing. does kelly clarkson sing gospel or hard rock. does fantasia break out the country. does reuben do anything for that matter. does carrie underwood sing anything but country. **** it, did sinatra sing anything but sinatra music. people fit molds and he fits the alternative rocker image great and he can sing. if you don't like him fine, but for people to say hes not diverse enough that's stupid. can taylor belt out a feul song, can pickler sing johnny cash, no? just because he chooses to make songs fit his style is a good thing, not a reason to hate.

gl

 

[freelancc]

no straight men are voting for him, so he can't last.

don't underestimate the West Hollywood and South Boston contingent.. :mj07: :mj07:

 

[Blazer]

THE ENTIRE SHOW IS COVERS. they never sing an original song. just because he did a cover of a cover doesn't mean he's not talented. he's one of the top 3 singers left. he never took credit for it. the judges just never heard that version before. and its not copied exactly, he did change the arrangement. listen to it again. and from a handicapping standpoint, less than one percent if that of voters ever heard the live version or knew it existed so it doesn't matter.

chris might not win, but he's one of only 3 who can with mchpee and possibly pickler. i like taylor, but he's wearing thin and doesn't have near as strong a voice as some others.

as for value, theres little left out there if you don't already have positions. the only thing i can come up with is pickler sitting at 10. she will hit 20 at one point on the wsex market but she can't win.

pickler- hot and dumb won't win. great story. beat the meat material, but wouldn't want to wake up next to her.

mandisa- strongest (not best) voice ever on show, but man is she fat. not normal fat, but who ate the fking kids fat.

chris- win or lose, will be on tour with his own band or anothers within the year. you might not like his kind of music, but he can bring it.

elliot- jesus. he can sing, but who sat on his face. and what can he possibly sing that any sane american under the age of 50 would buy.

bucky- wanna be kid rock. gets a bad rap, for hillbilly music, he's pretty good. will be playing the southern bar scene for a while. can't win.

mcphee- hasn't sang one song i've liked so far, but she can sing. chris' only real competition. big fat ass though. way big. bigger than you would expect.

ace- i'm a straight man and i think he's hot. wtf. when he opens his mouth i cringe though. i hate homo music and he's the king of it. he's wearing thin on a lot of people and no straight men are voting for him, so he can't last.

paris- boring, but a nice girl. won't win

lisa- going home next week if elliot or bucky don't. not worth the time, but she's cute.

taylor- personally i like him, but he's such a wild card. if he went home next week it wouldn't surprise me and if he won the damn thing it wouldn't surprise me either. i just don't think he will imo. he's not the best singer though contrary to popular belief.

and to all those chris haters, all he sings is alternative rock....wtf what do you want him to sing. does kelly clarkson sing gospel or hard rock. does fantasia break out the country. does reuben do anything for that matter. does carrie underwood sing anything but country. **** it, did sinatra sing anything but sinatra music. people fit molds and he fits the alternative rocker image great and he can sing. if you don't like him fine, but for people to say hes not diverse enough that's stupid. can taylor belt out a feul song, can pickler sing johnny cash, no? just because he chooses to make songs fit his style is a good thing, not a reason to hate.

gl

Truly your best post ever.

incredibly informative and ridiculously funny.

-good show mate.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

chris might not win

:scared

You were singin' a different tune a couple of weeks ago when you said he was a lock and I dumped my entire Pinnacle account on Chris.

Can't believe I followed another one of the GOY posts. Ugghhh

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

:scared

You were singin' a different tune a couple of weeks ago when you said he was a lock and I dumped my entire Pinnacle account on Chris.

Can't believe I followed another one of the GOY posts. Ugghhh

at least you are only out $37.15 then. :mj07:

i still think he wins. but all the values gone from him.

thanks for the support bobby. its players like you that keep me off the streets and helping society.


gl

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Actually it was about $92 - Just before the pre-tourney RE-LOAD (talk about your euphemisms)

I've been looking at the weather reports for New Year's in much of Western Europe. Looking to hammer the virgin lines right when they come out.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

I've been looking at the weather reports for New Year's in much of Western Europe. Looking to hammer the virgin lines right when they come out.

theres a guy on here. he's been banned a few times and uses a few alias, but he's hot as a salami in pickler right now.

he told me to keep this confidential, but i can't anymore. his source, who under torture i won't even name says that he's got a guy in istanbul that will guarantee snow there on christmas day. keep your eyes open for the weather lines on pinny when they come out in mid june, as my pinnacle rep has already assured me istanbul will be on the list.

heres one more tip for you bobby. quit trying to cap western europe, its a coin flip. lines are too tight. keep your eye on eastern europe. that's where the sharp money goes.

gl, and your bet on daughtry is far from over.

 

[3 Seconds]

I like these two:

Hicks +318 over Daughtry....despite popular belief CD wont win this thing. How many covers of a cover can this guy do?? He is a fraud. Taking credit for "CHANGING" Walk the Line & making it his is a joke. He just took Live's version of the song & copied it exactly. Live changed that song not Chris.

Elliot +173 over Ace Young.

Ace & his "good" looks are wearing off already. Once the contests get down to 7 or so, cute aint going to cut it.

Would also consider Lisa Tucker for elimination on 3/29 @ +327 or whatever it was.....the girl has no group of core voters....could cost her next week.

:sadwave:

 

[HoopsGuru]

guys, i have a future on chris at 5/1, do you think i should put a litle on mcphee to win? i can't see anyone else winning and the lines are going to drop on her with each week. any opinions?

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

guys, i have a future on chris at 5/1, do you think i should put a litle on mcphee to win? i can't see anyone else winning and the lines are going to drop on her with each week. any opinions?

mcphee won't win.

but if you do need to hedge, pinny had a line called the "sick 3"(i guess that's pinnacle trying to be hip) of mchpee, hicks, and chris at -160 beginning of last week. it's up to -280 now, but no one outside of those 3 are gonna win imo, so it's pretty safe. it's down now, but i imagine it will be over -300 when they put it back up in a few days. i don't think anyone outside those 3 will win. no such thing as lock, but this is as safe a bet as you will find. just sucks you didn't see it earlier because you will definitely have to lay some juice for it.

gl

 

[kosar]

The 'sick 3' was a play on the screen name of the poster that posted this on 3/16. Pinnacle saw the post and named that bet after him.


"To show you how sure i am.. IF i don't win this bet.. as GOD is my witness, I will NEVER post at ** again.. And i am a man of my word.. That's how sure i am


Well, talk about easy money.. Of course by now, you all know that I am the official American Idol expert. I have cleaned up every year in this show, and I am doing the same this year. There are now 11 contestants left, and ONLY 3 of them are great, and the rest have 0 chance of winning this, trust me, boys.. I have a great ear for music, and if that's not enough, I read the AI forum everyday, and i see what millions of people say, who they adore, and who they hate, and who they are voting for. This is too easy..

I bet at WSEX (+250) Chris Daughtry to win (the huge huge fav) I bet 1680 to win 4200.

I bet at Pinny (+604) Taylor Hicks to win (people love this guy to death, a fan favorite) I bet 840 to win 5074..

I bet at WSEX (+500) Katherine McPhee to win (a true talent, a beautiful girl, and extremely loved, and very very popular amongst everyone) I bet here 980 to win 4900.

I am risking 3500 if all go down (which i assure you it won't) But if one of them win, and they will.. I guarantee myself 2400 no matter who of these 3 win. This is the easiest 2400 I will ever make. It comes down to me laying -145 that one of these 3 will win (risk 3500 to win 2400), and they will. Go do it boys, and thank me later. I swear it will win.. NO one else has a chance. The rest suck and are just not popular with the AI fans.. I should know, i am at their boards alot..

trust me boys, go do it, and thank me later. What's this?? I have Chris, Taylor and Katherine, anyone of them to win, and i am only laying -145?? This is like having Duke at Pick em, when they are -24.5 pts.

To me, I just made 2400 easy dollars, and i am now going to buy that new 60 inch tv that i saw at Best Buy.. I am going this weekend there and buy it, and when the guy asks me how i want to pay for it, i will say,.. oh no sir, i am not the one paying for it, Pinny and WSEX are paying for it. Go do it boys.. "

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

kosar,

thanks for bringing that up. never knew or saw that.

unfortunately sometimes people like this win occasionally.

having made good money myself the last 3 seasons on the show, i think the guy is right. no lock or nothing, but those three should be the final 3. he reminds me of a lot of posters on this sight though.

but now that i have the lock jinx working against me i'll have to conisider hedging with your boy bucky in the coming weeks.

gl

 

[kosar]

kosar,

thanks for bringing that up. never knew or saw that.

unfortunately sometimes people like this win occasionally.

having made good money myself the last 3 seasons on the show, i think the guy is right. no lock or nothing, but those three should be the final 3. he reminds me of a lot of posters on this sight though.

but now that i have the lock jinx working against me i'll have to conisider hedging with your boy bucky in the coming weeks.

gl

NP, and yeah, that guy is a major tool. Not sure what you mean by 'your guy Bucky.' I couldn't pick 'Bucky' out of a lineup. The last 3 or 4 weeks i've been watching most of the shows, but I really don't know any of their names...well, that rather portly(to put it very nicely) black chick is called Mandisa I think. That's about it for me.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

subtle attempt at humor.

perhaps i should have called him agents boy.

gl

 

[kosar]

perhaps i should have called him agents boy.

That sounds about right.

 

[HeavyHitter]

well gentlemen, wish i had put money on Lisa when I posted this last week, as it is I got her at +147...unfortunately my wife found out that I bet American Idol when I jumped up screamed when Seacrest told she was off...I find it quite disturbing that I'm better at picking winners (or losers I should say) on AI than at any sport...oh well, it's all about the $ in the end....was disappointed to see McPhee in the bottom three, but doubt she'll be there again soon...next week I figure Bucky will be back, probably Ace again and I wouldn't doubt Pickler might be there

 

[freelancc]

next week they sing Country Music.. so maybe Bucky will survive another week. :dizzy:


but what do i know... :mj07: