FINAL FOUR!!!

[Jayhawk_Thor]

Update record:

YTD Total: 66-43-3 (+$2,533)-- .605%

FINAL REGULAR SEASON RECORD: (1 unit= $100)

Big 12: 31-17-2 (+$1,889)
Other conferences: 12-7 (-$34)
Total: 43-24-2 (+$1,855)

Updated Postseason record:

23-19-1 (+$678)
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LSU -2.5 (UCLA), +101, 100/101
------I had an immediate lean on LSU when the lines came out, and unfortunately decided to wait to check out the line movement. It cost me 2.5 points. Oh well.
LSU is going to dominate the paint in this one, and fly in the face of the old adage that you need the superior guard play to win deep in March. Thomas could very well be the first pick in the draft, and Davis is an incredible college center (will he be able to transition to the pro's? A question for another day...).
I am not sold on the LSU guards, but I think UCLA's style of play will play right into the hands of the Tigers. UCLA will slow the game down, and make every possession count, trying to keep the score down. The problem with such a strategy is that a team that can dominate you inside can simply dump the ball into the post as the shot clock is winding down and always get a quality shot.
I like Afalo and Farmar as much as the next guy, but Howland is going to have to let these guys loose to have a chance in this one, which would be a stark opposite to how the Bruins have played most of this season.
Speeding up the game, in my opinion, would put much greater pressure on the LSU guards to create, and thus lead to their downfall. Will Howland employ such a tactic? Not real sure. He is a great coach who has had plenty of time to look over LSU game tape.

-----------

I am going to hold off the on GM-Fla. game for now. There has been significant line movement in that one too, as GM backers will now have an additional point and a half to work with (and climbing).

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Good luck bro! I'm glad we're on the same side.

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

Thanks Wise... Was happy to see you on this side as well...

Hopefully the points won't matter in this one... I expect LSU to win somewhere in the 5-9 point range...

GL to us!

 

[gjn23]

i wouldnt doubt ben howland in this situation.........as much as i cant stand to praise ucla, guy has been an amazing hire for them.....got them to buy into his system and they manage to exploit the oppositions weakness on offense.....i dont doubt he will do the same with lsu....

pressure extended by the guards afflalo and farmar and doubling down on big baby with not much of a worry since lsu had a hard time making outside shots.......hollins will be at about a 100 pound disadvantage but ucla has plenty of bodies to throw at him and hollins is an extremely long and quick leaper...while big baby does not get much lift on his shots.....ucla has been shutting people down, esp in the second half, whatever isnt working in the first half will be adjusted at halftime by howland.

 

[Sun Tzu]

UCLA will win. LSU has horrible guard play and Howland will do what Barnes and K refused to do - pressure the ball.

LSU is great inside, but you cant keep winning when you cant make a shot outside the paint.

 

[maverick2112]

Texas A&M gave LSU fits and I kind of see a similar style of play from UCLA except the Bruins have a lot better guards than A&M did but they still employ that slow it down, tough defense, grind it out type of game.

Should be a good game.........

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

GJN-
Will be tough to consistantly double Davis when his front court mate is a possible #1 overall selection in Junes draft.
And I wasn't doubting Howland at all... This guy is an amazing coach, don't get me wrong... To whip Lavin's pretty boy, offensive oriented recruits into an unselfish, lockdown defense team in only a year is amazing.
My point is, as I see the game playing out... UCLA's best chance of winning is to attack LSU unlike they have played for awhile. I think it would be a coup for LSU if UCLA comes out trying to make the game another 50-45 matchup...

Sun-
I think we just see the game playing out differantly...
But I will disagree with your assessment that LSU can't shoot from outside of the paint... Mitchell is experianced and can bomb it away from deep. If Howland is going to send Afalo and Farmar into the paint to harass the post after every entry pass, I am confident that Mitchell will be very productive from outside.
LSU's lack of a true, complete PG is disconcerting... I will give you that... But this is a team that has won big without one so far. These guys will limit turnovers... and since I think UCLA is going to slow this game to a grind, LSU's backcourt is not going to have to have the added pressure of needing to take the game over.

Maverick-
You have a good point...
I would only add a couple things...
LSU shot awful in that game. Putrid. And I will concede that a decent amount of that can be attributed to defensive pressure. But not nearly all of it. I thought LSU came out flat, Tyrus Thomas played awful, etc. Tasmin Mitchell was 1-9 that day... I think these are variables that will all be much better this time around. The Tigers know what is at stake, and they will definately not look past UCLA like they overlooked Texas A&M...
But I will not deny that your point has serious validity, and it isn't something that comforts me, because... I absolutely agree... Gillespie and Howland coach similar styles.

This has been very overstated... but it is very true: UCLA is not going to have an answer inside.

They could win, regardless, of course... But we shall see.

I think this game is going to be a lot of fun.

 

[DeDe]

glty..

 

[blgstocks]

i am right there with ya jayhawk, i do like lsu, but i lean to the under a lil bit more than any points.
What is your thought on the over/ ?
GL to you

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

No play on the total BLG...

I would say, that if LSU is going to win, there is a decent/good chance that the game goes over. And I only say that because if LSU can control the tempo of the game and take a lead, UCLA is going to have to play a quicker game and increase the possesions, which would lead to the over.

If UCLA can throw the Davis/Thomas tandem off their games, they will probably win, control the tempo, and the game will go under.

Just some thoughts... GL on your pick...

Geaux Tigers!