National League Team Previews

[RAYMOND]

BASEBALL! --
National League Team Previews

NL EAST

(1) Atlanta Braves
Reports of the Braves? demise were greatly exaggerated. Atlanta proved skeptics wrong by keeping their string of divisional titles intact through the heroics of Andruw Jones (51 HR, 128 RBI), who carried the team while Chipper Jones and others sat out with injuries. The biggest question coming into the season is whether or not a negative impact will be felt after longtime legendary pitching coach Leo Mazzone left for Baltimore. Renowned wing-nut and new pitching coach Roger McDowell has a very different style and attitude, and this is his first coaching gig at the major league level. It?s easy to assume that he won?t maximize pitchers? potential as efficiently as Mazzone, unless Atlanta?s perpetual pitching production was a result of Bobby Cox?s influence all along. However, all of the Braves? starters were with the team last year and the continuity will help ease the transition. The relief corps is young and has some unproven/inconsistent commodities, but this is a team we give the benefit of the doubt when it comes to pitchers. Edgar Renteria should be more comfortable back in the NL and away from the pressure of Fenway Park. With the top starting duo in the NL East, Atlanta?s win total will remain pretty steady and they are still in the market to make a trade at some point.

(2) New York Mets
By dealing starters Kris Benson and Jae Seo in separate deals for relievers Duaner Sanchez and Jorge Julio, and signing free agents Billy Wagner and Chad Bradford, the Mets addressed last year?s biggest weakness?the bullpen?while sacrificing starting pitching depth. We think these moves may end up biting them in the rear because the rotation has plenty of uncertainties. Considering the group?s collective age and injury history, it?s pretty safe to assume that one or more starters will miss some time, and that the Mets will wish they had Seo or Benson to step in. The offense should be very good. The top six in the lineup (Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Wright, Floyd, LoDuca) is as good or better than any in the NL. 3B David Wright will continue to blossom into one of the league?s best young hitters and if Jose Reyes can develop his plate discipline, it would give the Mets one of the best all-around left sides of the infield in baseball. Carlos Beltran should also have a nice bounce-back year. If they get some luck with injuries, the Mets should at least be a major Wild Card contender, especially now that they have an elite closer to slam the door shut in the ninth inning. However, Willie Randolph continues to baffle us with some of his decisions, like naming Scott Banister the fifth starter, instead of Aaron Heilman.

(3) Philadelphia Phillies
While the Phillies did compile an 88-74 record last year, they inflated their record by going 11-1, +$1,055 versus NL West weaklings San Diego and San Francisco but just 77-73 (.513) otherwise, which translates into an 83-win season. Philadelphia was surprisingly strong (29-19, +$850) versus lefties last year, despite having three lefties (Utley, Abreu, Howard) in the heart of the lineup, so we?re not too sure that trend will continue. That said, this offense led the division in runs scored and will compete with the Mets to do so once again. Only one pitcher?Brett Myers?with at least 15 starts made a profit (21-13, +$540) and the staff is about average as a whole unless Ryan Madson and/or newbie Gavin Floyd has a breakout season. The bullpen took a hit by losing closer Billy Wagner to the Mets and replacing him with Tom Gordon. We have no doubt about Flash Gordon?s ability to close, but we do have serious reservations about the 38-year-old?s risk for injury after enduring a heavy workload in recent years. This team just missed out on the Wild Card in 2005 but we have to be skeptical about their chances because we anticipate more teams being in the race.

(4) Washington Nationals
It will always be difficult to win when your offense cannot muster more than a couple of runs at a time. The margin for error elsewhere becomes miniscule. The Nats learned that the hard way last year, collecting 30 one-run wins and 31 one-run losses. Their 28-45 record after the break was simply a result of their luck running out. Livan Hernandez is solid and John Patterson may turn a lot of heads in 2006, but the remainder of the rotation is very shaky. The bullpen took a gigantic hit when Luis Ayala blew out his elbow in the WBC, shelving him for the year. Of the 15 NL pitchers with 200 or more appearances over the last three seasons, only Astros closer Brad Lidge had a better ERA (2.59) than Ayala (2.75). Ayala also hasn?t walked more than 15 batters in each of the last three years. That leaves Frank Robinson with no attractive options to serve as the bridge to closer Chad Cordero, save perhaps for Gary Majewski. The potential for a disastrous season is evident, with worst-case scenarios dropping them back behind Florida if they materialize. Alfonso Soriano is unhappy that he has to play LF in his contract year. That situation could affect his hitting and his defense is already terrible. RF Jose Guillen has problems in his shoulder and wrist, is already demanding a huge contract extension, and is a general malcontent. 2B Jose Vidro has averaged just 123 games played over the last five years.

(5) Florida Marlins
In what is becoming a ritual in South Florida, Marlins ownership held another winter fire sale, jettisoning most of their major-league-level players and substantial salaries in return for a load of prospects. There is no question about the level of talent acquired, but prospects are just that?prospects. Florida will field an Opening Day roster with all but one position player (Miguel Cabrera) being a rookie or playing regularly for the first time in the majors. This is also Joe Girardi?s first managerial job, so there will be plenty of growing pains all around over the course of the summer. Of those rookies, RF Jeremy Hermida and 1B Mike Jacobs are the most likely to have an immediate impact and they should surround the powerful Cabrera in the lineup. Dontrelle Willis, who is struggling with his mechanics this spring, will lead the rotation, probably followed by Sergio Mitre, Jason Vargas, Scott Olsen, and Brian Moehler. Vargas and Olsen are both lefties with good potential but like the rest of the team, will battle the inconsistency that comes with inexperience. The last time the Marlins cleaned house, it resulted in an eventual World Series title. This isn?t their year, but a strong foundation is being set.

 

[RAYMOND]

NL CENTRAL

(1) St. Louis Cardinals
Everything is relative. Therefore, the Cardinals? total wins will decline because of the anticipated improvement of teams like the Brewers, Cubs, Mets, Giants, and Dodgers. But still, control of the NL Central will have to be wrestled from St. Louis?s grasp. This team has a good coaching staff that has done a great job enhancing the production of pitchers that other teams gave up on (Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan). The rotation?s consistency has been an integral part of this team?s success, with each member making at least 31 starts last year. This season?s project is fifth starter Sidney Ponson, but if he doesn?t pan out, the dynamic Al Reyes is sitting at AAA waiting for his chance. All-Star 3B Scott Rolen returns after missing the majority of 2005 with a shoulder injury, and he has to be on his game for the Cards to make some noise. Jim Edmonds is terribly injury-prone and he?s not getting younger, so Rolen has to provide some power and protection behind Albert Pujols to ensure the reigning MVP will actually see some pitches to hit this year. The bullpen, which has endured a lot of turnover the last couple of seasons, must be solid because we don?t this team averaging 5 runs a game once again. With all the possible scenarios considered, St. Louis still projects to be the Central?s strongest team.

(2) Houston Astros
IF the ?Stros can hold the fort for just a couple of months, their savior The Rocket will likely swoop in and immediately make them a threat by joining the rotation and re-establishing the best starting trio in the NL. Upon this condition, we peg them in second place. Until Clemens (hopefully) returns, the combo of Brandon Backe, Wandy Rodriguez, and rookie Taylor Buchholz will have to keep it together after the righty/lefty duo of Roy Oswalt (22-13, +$430) and Andy Pettitte (20-13, +$490). Houston showed a strong home-field advantage (53-28, +$930) last year at the Juice Box (Minute Maid Field), where they were lefty mashers (17-7, +$650), but you have to pick your spots with this team because the top starters are regularly heavy favorites. If Clemens decides not to come back, only breakout years from Jason Lane and (less likely) Backe would be able to get them in the race. The Juice Box is just that?a box?and the Astros were predictably much worse offensively on the road last season as a result. This team will play more than its fare share of close-margin games and second-half runs have been their specialty in recent years. Everyone is wondering if closer Brad Lidge?s psyche is OK after blowing it in the playoffs, but we?re more concerned about the condition of that elbow after throwing so many sliders the last couple years and the fact that his command has been rusty all spring.

(3) Milwaukee Brewers
We, like many other prognosticators, expect the Brewers to advance to the next plateau as a team. The pitching staff is young and talented but needs Ben Sheets to stay healthy so his leadership and ace-quality stuff can lead the way. Pitching coach Mike Maddux has done a superb job in his short tenure, which bodes well for the up-and-coming David Bush, who can progress and strengthen the back of the rotation, which needs a stronger presence than Tomo Ohka and Rick Helling. Bush has shown some promise this spring but he will need time. 2B Rickie Weeks, 23, and rookie 1B Prince (son of Cecil) Fielder, 22, represent the youth movement and (along with Sheets) are the new franchise players. Each has a very high ceiling, but we can?t expect immediate consistency. They still have a lot to learn in the majors and that will ultimately hold the Brewers back in the short term, but there is no denying the talent in the organization. Positive changes will occur but until Sheets is proven to be healthy, closer Derrick Turnbow proves consistent, and the young hitters get some more major league at bats under their belts, this team won?t take the next step.

(4) Chicago Cubs
The Mark Prior/Kerry Wood injury stories have been beaten to death, so let?s just say that the Cubs will go nowhere without that pair. If Chicago can get 55 starts between them, they could be Wild Card contenders. Without them, they similar to last year?s mediocre squad, because the bullpen and minors will have to be raided in order to pick up the slack. The top of the lineup is better with Juan Pierre leading off and we feel Aramis Ramirez could have a monster year. However, they could use a better #2 hitter and there is a steep drop of in the bottom half, which includes Jacque Jones and Ronny Cedeno. Matt Murton won the LF job and he has some nice potential, but it remains to be seen if he is ready. History has shown us that Murphy?s Law is especially applicable to the Cubs, especially during the Dusty Baker era, so the chances of everything falling into place and this team making a serious run are very thin. As usual, there will be plenty of hype coming out of Wrigley Field, just don?t make the mistake of believing it. Baker?s track record of abusing his starters does not bode well for the preservation of Prior, Wood, and possibly Carlos Zambrano, who has the ability to challenge for the Cy Young.

(5) Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati?s offense should be at about the same level as it was last year (NL-best 820 runs); unfortunately, the pitching and defense (889 runs allowed) will be as well. 1B Sean Casey left for Pittsburgh and OF Wily Mo Pena was traded for SP Bronson Arroyo. Projected #2 Arroyo could be a pretty good player in the NL, where his sharp breaking stuff will be more successful. It?s too bad that Reds management hasn?t grasped the counterintuitive nature of attempting to build a winner with a staff composed mainly of fly-ball pitchers in cozy Great American Ballpark. Even though Aaron Harang is also a fly ball pitcher, he is the only starter with a favorable makeup for GAB. He is 6?7 with a hard sinker, who improved his control and HR rate last season in a career-high 211 IP. The bottom trio?lefties Brandon Claussen, Eric Milton, and Dave Williams?won?t strike any fear in a batter?s heart. The bullpen is below average. Best-case scenario is that the young bats in the lineup (Felipe Lopez, Edwin Encarnacion, Austin Kearns) progress and help the already potent offense thump its way into third place.

(6) Pittsburgh Pirates
Last year?s innings leader, Kip Wells, is out for at least the first half with after surgery to repair a blockage in the primary artery to the upper body. The most promising pitcher on the roster, Oliver Perez, took a major step back, posting a 5.85 ERA and a 97/70 K/BB ratio in 103 IP. His velocity is reportedly down around the 88-90 mph range and a hurler with his lower level of control is much less effective without that extra zip on the heater. Fellow southpaws Zach Duke (9-5, +$525, 1.81 ERA) and Paul Maholm (3-3, +$110, 2.18) both had great rookie debuts but the league will fare better in its second look at them. The oldest member of the current rotation is Victor Santos, 29. The remainder is 25 or under and will have peaks and valleys all season. Only the Barry-less Giants and impotent Nationals scored fewer runs than the Bucs in 2005, only the Reds gave up more. Pittsburgh did bring in some veterans (1B Sean Casey, RF Jeremy Burnitz, 3B Joe Randa, RP Roberto Hernandez) but all lack long-term value and seem like the typical stopgaps for a team going nowhere. This franchise has basically been running in place since Barry Bonds left for the Bay.

 

[RAYMOND]

NL WEST

(1) San Francisco Giants
Everyone with half a brain knows the Giants season hinges on one thing?Barry Bonds? cartilage-less knee. Those in the know realize that the truth is that success will depend equally on the performance of SP?s Noah Lowry and Matt Cain. This, including Matt Morris, could realistically be the best foursome in the NL and Barry?s presence alone provides enough support to automatically add a dozen wins if he plays as little as 115 games. If the Health Gods watch over Barry, Moises Alou, and Steve Finley especially closely, the Giants can win the division. This is the last chance to win it all for all of these veterans and they won?t go easily. Jason Schmidt is looking good this spring even though he can?t pop the mitt like he used to. But he is looking to capitalize on his contract year. It?s looking like the later innings will once again be a torturous nightly adventure since Armando Benitez? knee still is not healthy, but the Giants have won in similar situations before and Felipe Alou is certain to wear out another set of cleats making rounds between the dugout and the mound.

(2) Los Angeles Dodgers
The offseason was spent revamping the entire Dodgers infield, which now features Bill Mueller at the hot corner, Rafael Furcal at shortstop, and Nomar Garciaparra at first, along with 2B Jeff Kent. There is not much power to speak of on the roster but the aforementioned players, as well as RF J.D. Drew, will put the ball in play and hit the generous gaps in Dodger Stadium. On the downside, all of those guys have pretty lengthy injury histories, too. New CF Kenny Lofton is also on the shelf to begin the season and his constant injury problems will force Grady Little to do a lot of shuffling. Eric Gagne is coming off Tommy John surgery and has looked like he can lead a strong bullpen that added Danys Baez to the mix. Only two Dodgers (Derek Lowe and Jeff Weaver) made more than 30 starts in 2005. Things could get dicey if Gagne and Co. have to endure more innings to compensate, since the team sweat out so many late innings with Yhency Brazoban substituting for Gagne. Like the Giants, the Dodgers? numerous risks mean that there is a huge range of possibilities of what may happen this year, but we just have a better feeling about the Giants as a whole.

(3) San Diego Padres
At the risk of being a broken record, the first thing we notice is that there is a lot of reason to worry about the health of this team. We count six positions that we consider prime candidates to have at least one stint on the DL before the year is out. That?s without even considering the pitchers. The NL West title fell into the Padres? lap last season and won?t be as much of a default prize in 2006 with the Giants and Dodgers improved. There are some obscure names in the bullpen and we wish to forget those we recognize, save for Trevor Hoffman (who can toss 60 innings tops) and Scott Linebrink. Taking a glance at the names behind Jake Peavy in the rotation (Woody Williams, Sean Estes, Chan Ho Park) spur a similar reaction, though Chris Young could be very good in San Diego. The Pads traded Mark Loretta for backup catcher Doug Mirabelli to make room for rookie Josh (son of Jesse) Barfield at second base and Mike Piazza will take over most of the catching duties. The pitchers will praise the acquisition of Mike Cameron when he?s tracking down all those flies in Petco?s alleys but he had already suffered a strained oblique muscle and begin the season on the 15-day DL. It?s possible that the injury could be stubborn and affect his swing or defensive play for quite some time.

(4) Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are in rebuilding mode, but they may not stay there too long with the list of prospects they have stashed away in their system. You?ll be hearing the names 1B Conor Jackson, SS Justin Upton, SS Stephen Drew, OF Carlos Quentin, and OF Chris Young more frequently in the near future. Brandon Webb isn?t far from being a legitimate Cy Young candidate but there can?t be that many innings left on El Duque?s arm and the D?Backs are relying on him as the #2 starter. They also need some more stability back in the pen but are still substantially better than the Rockies. The franchise has loads of offensive potential in the farm system with the right kind of ballpark to take advantage and it will be intriguing to see how management proceeds. Either way, this team is at least a couple years away from becoming a true threat but did have the best record (41-32) in the division last year.

(5) Colorado Rockies
In their continual quest for someone who can pitch in the Denver air, the Rockies trotted out 11 different starting pitchers last year. No team can be successful over the course of the year with such a lack of stability. Yet, we should see more of the same since the team has assembled a stable of lower-rung arms as sacrificial lambs. Colorado hitters are notorious for failing to produce away from thinner atmosphere, therefore this is not a team to back on the road (27-54) in almost any situation. Aaron Cook and Jason Jennings both get groundballs, but their overall stuff is not good enough to expect much more than the league average. On a good note, 1B Todd Helton has been hitting the ball well in spring training. But his back problems could flare up at any time and he has absolutely no protection in this lineup, so he may not even collect 100 RBIs despite being one of the best hitters around.