series info

[RAYMOND]

BEGINNING THURSDAY APRIL 6



Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th

The Pirates can be dangerous early in the year, but they certainly did not disgtinguish themselves among investors last year (-$1520 overall) and they?ll have their hands full with a Cincinnati team that was dominant at Great American Ballpark in day games (16-8, +$875). Pttsburgh averaged a paltry 3.8 runs per game in daylight contests, and will likely face Aaron Harang (3.83 ERA in 32 starts) in this series, most likely on either Saturday or Sunday. He?ll be tough in any setting, but those weekend games look too good to pass up whatever the matchup. PREFERRED: Harang/Reds in day games.

Detroit at Texas (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th

The Rangers will have had a good workout against the Red Sox before the Tigers roll into Arlington, so it?s tempting to look for a nice spot for the road underdog. Mike Maroth and Nate robertson have flashed some good form on occasion, but they tend to be inconsistent, and Detroit?s record as a visitor last year offers little encouragement (-$1180). We?ll reconsider on game day, but we need a better sense of these two squads before committing. PREFERRED: None.

Oakland at Seattle (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th

The Athletics will get a chance to catch their breath after hosting the Yankees in front of packed houses in Oakland . But that shouldn?t stop them from maintaining the mastery over Seattle they exhibited last year (12-6, +$595 in head to head play). The Mariners were amemic at the plate in ?05 (4.3 runs per game) and the Oakland staff looks like one of baseball?s best. Jaime Moyer was sensational at Safeco last year, but that means the A?s will go off at a fat underdog price when he?s on the hill. Oakland was tough on southpaws in 2005 (+$865 with 6.1 runs per game) so we?ll jump on them when they take on the home team?s ace. PREFERRED: Athletics vs. Moyer.

 

[RAYMOND]

BEGINNING FRIDAY APRIL 7



St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (3) 7th, 8th, 9th

The Cubs were one of the few teams that gave the Cardinals trouble in 2005 (only 6-10, -$765 in head to head play), and we also note the fact that St. Louis was a net loser in day games last year (-$475). Mark Mulder might be a problem for Chicago (-$1450 vs. lefties at Wrigley), but we?ll try our luck against the rest of the Cardinal hurler?s, a few of whom may go off as favorites or at pick ?em (Cubs +$1380 in that situation). They are missing Mark Prior & Kerry Wood, but the Cubs can steal a few wins anyway. PREFERRED: Cubs vs. righthanders.

L.A. Dodgers at Philadelphia (3) 7th, 8th, 9th

High hopes for a big turnaround in LA this year, but after watching the Phillies go 18-7 (+$890) in day games at Citizen?s Bank Park last year, we?re not about to climb aboard the bandwagon. The Dodgers were atrocious on the road last season (31-50, -$1520) and this trip marks the first of many cross country flights they?ll be taking. The Phillies opened at home and will be primed and rested to take at least 2 out of 3 from the visitor. If they win the first one a sweep is a real possibility. PREFERRED: Phillies in day games.

Florida at N.Y. Mets (3) 7th, 8th, 9th

The Mets managed to go 10-8 (+$380) vs. the Marlins last year, a team that was still a serious playoff contender at the time. But after dumping the best of their pitching over the winter, it?s hard to see this Florida team remaining competitive against the vastlly improved Mets. NY went 48-33 at Shea Stadium last year (+$585) and the righthanders in their rotation can shut down the Marlins, who racked up big losses on the road vs. righties last year (-$1130), scoring only 4.1 runs per game with Carlos Delgado in the lineup. PREFERRED: Righthanders vs. the Marlins.

Arizona at Milwaukee (3) 7th, 8th, 9th

It remains to be seen whether or not the Diamondbacks can show the kind of profits they piled up in road games vs. righthanders last year (+$1605) but there?s no way to pass up the fat prices they?ll be pulling down as underdogs in most of these games. Ben Sheets will go off as a very heavy favorite, even if Arizona counters with Brandon Webb (3.54 ERA in 33 starts). Milwaukee pulled themselves up to .500 in ?05, showing significant improvement, but could be overvalued as 2006 begins. PREFERRED: Diamondbacks vs. righthanders.

Washington at Houston (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th

After watching Houston dig themselveg into a very deep hole at the start of each of the past two seasons, we?re going to jump on the road visitor when we can. The Nationals were big money-makers on the road vs. righthanders last year (+$1455) and they don?t have to worry about Roger Clemens for the time being. So just stay away from Roy Oswalt (2.98 ERA in ?06) and take the soter underdog price vs. the lesser arms in the Astros? rotation. PREFERRED: Nationals vs. all righthanders except Oswalt.

Colorado at San Diego (3) 7th, 8th, 9th

We?re looking for a dropoff by the Padres, who won an NL Wesst title that on one seemed to want in 2005. Their offense averaged a mere 4.2 runs per game, and they were a losing proposition overall despite appearing in the post-season (-$750). But we can?t see backing the sad sack Rockies, who averaged only 3.5 runs per game on the road, en route to a 27-54 (-$1160) record. We?ll steer clear of this one for now. PREFERRED: None.

Atlanta at San Francisco (3) 7th, 8th, 9th

The Braves were a definite go against in road games last year (-$860) but we certainly don?t want any part of the Giants this weekend, when the likes of Tim Hudson and John Smoltz are on the hill for the visitor. The only spot we?d consider playing is if Horacio Ramirez takes a turn. He was awful in 2005 (-$1170, 31 HR?s allowed) and SF

fared well against southpaws in this ballpark (+$460). If he?s not available in this sries, we?ll stay on the sidelines for now. PREFERRED: Giants vs. H. Ramirez.

Minnesota at Cleveland (3) 7th, 8th, 9th

These teams fought to a virtual draw last year, with the Tribe eking out a small profit by winning 10 of 19 head to head matchups. Cleveland?s numbers at Jacobs Field were dismal (-$1270 overall), but the Twins were ineffective in the role of visitor (-$745), and the Indians did manage a very respectable 5.2 runs per game vs. lefties at home. So why not grab a price against Johan Santana, who will no doubt be paired against one of the home teams top hurlers. PREFERRED: Indians vs. Santana.

Boston at Baltimore (3) 7th, 8th, 9th

The Orioles are a team that we?re most interested in accessing during the early weeks of the new season. They have what could be one of the better pitching staffs in the AL, but their numbers at Camden Yards last year we?re so awful (-$1895) that it?s hard to back them against a team the caliber of the Red Sox, Boston?s notoriously difficulty as a visitor notwithstanding. We?ll check out the first starts of some of their hurler to see if Leo Mazzone?s impact has been felt, and consider our options on game day. PREFERRED: None.

Tampa Bay at Toronto (3) 7th, 8th, 9th

The Blue Jays are brimming with optimism as 2006 gets underway, and that could make it tough for the perennial last place Devil Rays, who enter the new season with what appears to be the worst pitching staff in the league. The Blue Jays were very effectve against righthanders at Skydome (35-23, +$1170) while Tampa Bay managed a dismal 7-22 (-$540) mark on the road vs. lefties. We?ll try Chacin & Lilly as long as there is no southpaw on the hill for the visitor. PREFERRED: Chacin & Lilly vs. righthanders.

Chicago W. Sox at Kansas City (3) 7th, 8th, 9th

The White Sox went 13-5 (+$200) against the Royals last year, and considering how bad KC was, it?s hard to see how they lost the five. The Royals start the season without Zack Greinke, their only potential top of the line starter. 100 losses by this once proud franchise seems evitable once again. But the Royals did post winnig vs. righties at home last year, so we?ll limit ourselves to a play on Mark Buehrle, making his second start, taking on a team that was 17-38 (-$1010, with 3.7 runs per game) vs. lefthanders in 2005. Hopefully the price won?t exceed -160. PREFERRED: Buehrle.

N.Y. Yankees at L.A. Angels (3) 7th, 8th, 9th

Lots of revenge on the line for the Yanks after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Angels in this ballpark last season. Randy Johnson had a bad start in game #3 of that series, and should be pumped up against a squad that was a shaky 12-14 (-$1085) against lefthanders at home. Best shot for the Angels is against Mike Mussina (-$460, 4.41 ERA in ?05) considering LA?s substantial winnings against righties last year (+$1935). PREFERRED: Johnson/Angels vs. Mussina.

 

[RAYMOND]

NATIONAL LEAGUE PREVIEW

NL EAST

(1) Atlanta Braves

Reports of the Braves? demise were greatly exaggerated. Atlanta proved skeptics wrong by keeping their string of divisional titles in tact through the heroics of Andruw Jones (51 HR, 128 RBI) as he carried the team while Chipper Jones and others sat out with injuries. The biggest question coming into the season is what the ramifications of longtime legendary pitching coach Leo Mazzone leaving for Baltimore will be. Renowned wing-nut and new pitching coach Roger McDowell has a very different style and attitude but this is his first coaching gig at the major league level so it?s safe to assume he won?t maximize pitchers? potential as efficiently as Mazzone was able to so, unless that production was a result of Bobby Cox?s influence the whole time. However, all of the Braves? starters were with the team last year and the continuity will help ease the transition. The relief corps is young and has some unproven/inconsistent commodities, but this is a team we give the benefit of the doubt when it comes to pitchers. Edgar Renteria should be more comfortable back in the NL and away from the pressure of Fenway Park. With the top duo of starters in the NL East, Atlanta?s win total will remain pretty steady and they are still in the market to make a trade at some point.



(2) New York Mets

The Mets addressed last year?s biggest weakness?the bullpen?but sacrificed starting pitching depth in order to do so, dealing Kris Benson and Jae Seo in separate deals for relievers Duaner Sanchez and Jorge Julio and signing free agents Billy Wagner and Chad Bradford. We think that may end up biting them in the rear because the rotation has plenty of uncertainties. Considering the group?s collective age and injury history, it?s pretty safe to assume that one or more starters will miss some time the Mets will wish they had Seo or Benson to step in. The offense should be very good. The top six in the lineup (Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Wright, Floyd, LoDuca) is as good or better than any in the NL. 3B David Wright will continue to blossom into one of the league?s best young hitters and if Jose Reyes can develop his plate discipline it would give the Mets one of the best all-around left sides of the infield in baseball. Carlos Beltran should also have a nice bounce-back year. If they get some luck with injuries, the Mets should at least be a major Wild Card contender, especially now that they have an elite closer to slam the door shut in the ninth inning. However, Willie Randolph continues to baffle us with some of his decisions, like naming Scott Banister the fifth starter, instead of Aaron Heilman.



(3) Philadelphia Phillies

While the Phillies did compile an 88-74 record last year, they inflated their record by going 11-1, +1055 versus NL West weaklings San Diego and San Francisco but just 77-73 (.513) otherwise, which translates into an 83-win season. Philadelphia was surprisingly strong (29-19, +850) versus lefties last year, despite having three lefties (Utley, Abreu, Howard) in the heart of the lineup, so we?re not too sure that trend will continue. That said, this offense led the division in runs scored and will compete with the Mets to do so once again. Only one pitcher?Brett Myers?with at least 15 starts made a profit (21-13, +540) and the staff is about average as a whole unless Ryan Madson and/or newbie Gavin Floyd has a breakout season. The bullpen took a hit by losing closer Billy Wagner to the Mets and replacing him with Tom Gordon. We have no doubt about Flash Gordon?s ability to close, but we do have serious reservations about the 38-year-old?s risk for injury after enduring a heavy workload in recent years. This team just missed out on the Wild Card in 2005 but we have to be skeptical about their chances because we anticipate more teams being in the race.



(4) Washington Nationals

It is always going to be difficult to win when your margin for error is so miniscule because your offense cannot muster more than a coupe runs at a time. The Nats learned that the hard way last year, collecting 30 one-run wins and 31 one-run losses in 2005. Their 28-45 record after the break was simply a result of their luck running out. Livan Hernandez is solid and John Patterson may turn a lot of heads in 2006 but the remainder of the rotation is very shaky. The bullpen took a gigantic hit when Luis Ayala blew out his elbow in the WBC, shelving him for the year. Of the 15 NL pitchers with 200 or more appearances over the last three seasons, only Astros closer Brad Lidge had a better ERA (2.59) than Ayala (2.75). Ayala also hasn?t walked more than 15 batters in each of the last three years. That leaves Frank Robinson with no attractive options to serve as the bridge to closer Chad Cordero, save perhaps for Gary Majewski. The potential for a disastrous season is evident and the Nats could end up worse than Florida if things take a turn for the worst. Alfonso Soriano is unhappy that he has to play LF in his contract year. That situation could affect his hitting and his defense is already terrible. RF Jose Guillen has problems in his shoulder and wrist, is already demanding a huge contract extension, and is a general malcontent. 2B Jose Vidro has averaged just 123 games played over the last five years.



(5) Florida Marlins

In what is becoming a ritual in South Florida, Marlins ownership held another winter fire sale, jettisoning most of their major-league-level players and substantial salaries in return for a load of prospects. There is no question to the level of talent acquired, but prospects are just that?prospects. Florida will field an Opening Day roster with all but one position player (Miguel Cabrera) being a rookie or playing regularly for the first time in the majors. This is also Joe Girardi?s first managerial job so there will be plenty of growing pains all around over the course of the summer. Of those rookies, RF Jeremy Hermida and 1B Mike Jacobs are the most likely to have an immediate impact and they should surround the powerful Cabrera in the lineup. Dontrelle Willis, who is struggling with his mechanics this spring, will lead the rotation, probably followed by Sergio Mitre, Jason Vargas, Scott Olsen, and Brian Moehler. Vargas and Olsen are both lefties with good potential but they, like the rest of the team, will battle the inconsistency that comes with inexperience. The last time the Marlins cleaned house, it resulted in an eventual World Series title. This isn?t their year, but a strong foundation is being laid.

 

[RAYMOND]

NL CENTRAL

(1) St. Louis Cardinals

Everything is relative. Therefore, the Cardinals? total wins will decline because of the anticipated improvement of teams like the Brewers, Cubs, Mets, Giants, and Dodgers. But still, control of the NL Central will have to be wrestled from St. Louis?s grasp. This team has a good coaching staff that has done a great job taking pitchers others gave up on and making them productive (Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, Jason Suppan). The rotation?s consistency has been an integral part of this team?s success, with each member making at least 31 starts last year. This season?s project is fifth starter Sidney Ponson, but if he doesn?t pan out, the dynamic Al Reyes is sitting at AAA waiting for his chance. All-Star 3B Scott Rolen returns after missing the majority of 2005 with a shoulder injury and he has to be on his game for the Cards to make some noise. Jim Edmonds is terribly injury-prone and he?s not getting younger, so Rolen has to provide some power and protection behind Albert Pujols to ensure the reigning MVP will actually see some pitches to hit this year. The bullpen has endured a lot of turnover the last couple of seasons and has to be solid because we don?t this team averaging 5 runs a game once again. With all the possible scenarios considered, St. Louis still projects to be the Central?s strongest team.



(2) Houston Astros

IF the ?Stros can hold the fort for just a couple of months, their savior The Rocket will likely swoop in and immediately make them a threat by reassembling the best starting trio in the NL and it?s upon that condition that we have them pegged in second place. Until Clemens (hopefully) returns, the combo of Brandon Backe, Wandy Rodriguez, and rookie Taylor Buchholz will have to keep it together after the righty/lefty duo of Roy Oswalt (22-13, +$430) and Andy Pettitte (20-13, +$490). Houston showed a strong home-field advantage (53-28, +$930) last year at the Juice Box (Minute Maid Field), where they were lefty mashers (17-7, +$650), but you have to pick your spots with this team because the top starters are regularly heavy favorites. If Clemens decides not to come back, only breakout years from Jason Lane and (less likely) Backe would be able to get them in the race. The Juice Box is just that?a box?and the Astros were predictably much worse offensively on the road last season as a result. This team will play more than its fare share of close-margin games and second-half runs have been their specialty in recent years. Everyone is wondering if closer Brad Lidge?s psyche is OK after blowing it in the playoffs, but we?re more concerned about the condition of that elbow after throwing so many sliders the last couple year and the fact that his command has been rusty all spring.



(3) Milwaukee Brewers

We, like many other prognosticators, expect the Brewers to advance to the next plateau as a team. The pitching staff is young and talented but needs Ben Sheets to stay healthy so his leadership and ace-quality stuff can lead the way. Pitching coach Mike Maddux has done a superb job in his short tenure to this point and we like the chances of following suit with helping David Bush progress and strengthen the back of the rotation, which needs to do better than Tomo Ohka and Rick Helling. Bush has shown some promise this spring but he will need time. 2B Rickie Weeks, 23, and rookie 1B Prince (son of Cecil) Fielder, 22, represent the youth movement and (along with Sheets) are the new franchise players. Each has a very high ceiling, but we can?t expect immediate consistency. They still have a lot to learn in the majors and that will ultimately hold the Brewers back in the short term, but there is no denying the talent in the organization. Positive changes will occur but until Sheets is proven to be healthy, closer Derrick Turnbow proves consistent, and the young hitters get some more major league at bats under their belts, this team won?t take the next step.



(4) Chicago Cubs

The Mark Prior/Kerry Wood injury stories have been beat to death, so let?s just say that the Cubs will go nowhere without that pair. If Chicago can get 55 starts between them, they could be Wild Card contenders. Without them, they similar to last year?s mediocre squad, because the bullpen and minors will have to be raided in order to pick up the slack. The top of the lineup is better with Juan Pierre leading off and we feel Aramis Ramirez could have a monster year. However, they could use a better #2 hitter and there is a steep drop of in the bottom half, which includes Jacque Jones and Ronny Cedeno. Matt Murton won the LF job and he has some nice potential, but it remains to be seen if he is ready. History has shown us that Murphy?s Law is especially applicable to the Cubs, especially during the Dusty Baker era, so the chances of everything falling into place and this team making a serious run are very thin. As usual, there will be plenty of hype coming out of Wrigley Field, just don?t make the mistake of believing it. Baker?s track record of abusing his starters does not bode well for the preservation of Prior, Wood, and possibly Carlos Zambrano, who has the ability to challenge for the Cy Young.



(5) Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati?s offense should be at about the same level as it was last year (NL-best 820 runs); unfortunately, the pitching and defense (889 runs allowed) will be as well. 1B Sean Casey left for Pittsburgh and OF Wily Mo Pena was traded for SP Bronson Arroyo. Projected #2 Arroyo could be a pretty good player in the NL, where his sharp breaking stuff will be more successful. It?s too bad that Reds management doesn?t seem to realize that it is going to be very difficult to build a winner in cozy Great American Ballpark with a staff composed mainly of fly ball pitchers. Even though Aaron Harang is also a fly ball pitcher, he is the only starter with a favorable makeup for GAB. He is 6?7 with a hard sinker and improved his control and HR rate last season in a career-high 211 IP. The bottom trio?lefties Brandon Claussen, Eric Milton, and Dave Williams?won?t strike any fear in a batter?s heart. The bullpen is below average. Best-case scenario is that the young bats in the lineup (Felipe Lopez, Edwin Encarnacion, Austin Kearns) progress and help the already potent offense thump its way into third place.



(6) Pittsburgh Pirates

Last year?s innings leader, Kip Wells, is for at least the first half with after surgery to repair a blockage in the primary artery to the upper body. The most promising pitcher on the roster, Oliver Perez, took a major step back, posting a 5.85 ERA and a 97/70 K/BB ratio in 103 IP. His velocity is reportedly down around the 88-90 mph range and a hurler with his lower level of control is much less effective without that extra zip on the heater. Fellow southpaws Zach Duke (9-5, +$525, 1.81 ERA) and Paul Maholm (3-3, +$110, 2.18) both had great rookie debuts but the league will fare better in its second look at them. The oldest member of the current rotation is Victor Santos, 29. The remainder is 25 or under and will have peaks and valleys all season. Only the Barry-less Giants and impotent Nationals scored fewer runs than the Bucs in 2005, only the Reds gave up more. Pittsburgh did bring in some veterans (1B Sean Casey, RF Jeremy Burnitz, 3B Joe Randa, RP Roberto Hernandez) but none represents more than a stopgap player that lacks any long-term value. This franchise has basically been running in place since Barry Bonds left for the Bay.

 

[RAYMOND]

NL WEST

(1) San Francisco Giants

Everyone with half a brain knows the Giants season hinges on one thing?Barry Bonds? cartilage-less knee. Those in the know realize that the truth is that success will depend equally on the performance of SP?s Noah Lowry and Matt Cain. This, including Matt Morris, could realistically be the best foursome in the NL and Barry?s presence alone provides enough support to automatically add a dozen wins if he plays as little as 115 games. If the Health Gods watch over Barry, Moises Alou, and Steve Finley especially closely, the Giants can win the division. This is the last chance to win it all for all of these veterans and they won?t go easily. Jason Schmidt is looking good this spring even though he can?t pop the mitt like he used to and looking to capitalize on his contract year. It?s looking like the later innings will once again be a torturous nightly adventure since Armando Benitez knee still is not healthy, but the Giants have won in similar situations before and Felipe Alou is certain to wear out another set of cleats making rounds between the dugout and the mound.



(2) Los Angeles Dodgers

The offseason was spent revamping the entire Dodgers infield, which now features Bill Mueller at the hot corner, Rafael Furcal at shortstop, and Nomar Garciaparra at first, along with 2B Jeff Kent. There is not much power to speak of on the roster but the aforementioned players, as well as RF J.D. Drew, will put the ball in play and will be able to hit the generous gaps in Dodger stadium. On the downside, all of those guys have pretty lengthy injury histories too. New CF Kenny Lofton is also on the shelf to begin the season and his constant injury problems will force Grady Little to do a lot of shuffling. Eric Gagne is coming off Tommy John surgery and has looked like he can lead a strong bullpen that added Danys Baez to the mix. Only two Dodgers (Derek Lowe and Jeff Weaver) made more than 30 starts in 2005 things could get dicey if Gagne and Co. have to endure more innings to compensate, since the team sweat out so many late innings with Yhency Brazoban substituting for Gagne. Like the Giants, the Dodgers? numerous risks mean that there is a huge range of possibilities of what may happen this year, but we just have a better feeling about the Giants as a whole.



(3) San Diego Padres

At the risk of being a broken record, the first thing we notice is that there is a lot of reason to worry about the health of this team. We count six positions that we consider prime candidates to have at least one stint on the DL before the year is out. That?s without even considering the pitchers. The NL West title fell into the Padres? lap last season and won?t be as much of a default prize in 2006 with the Giants and Dodgers improved. There are some obscure names in the bullpen and we wish to forget those we recognize, save for Trevor Hoffman (who can toss 60 innings tops) and Scott Linebrink. Taking a glance at the names behind Jake Peavy in the rotation (Woody Williams, Sean Estes, Chan Ho Park) spur a similar reaction, though Chris Young could be very good in San Diego. The Pads traded Mark Loretta for backup catcher Doug Mirabelli to make room for rookie Josh (son of Jesse) Barfield at second base and Mike Piazza will take over most of the catching duties. The pitchers will praise the acquisition of Mike Cameron when he?s tracking down all those flies in Petco?s alleys but he?s already suffered a strained oblique muscle and begin the season on the 15-day DL. It?s possible that the injury could be stubborn and affect his swing or defensive play for quite some time.



(4) Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks are in rebuilding mode, but they may not stay there too long with the list of prospects they have stashed away in their system. You?ll be hearing the names 1B Conor Jackson, SS Justin Upton, SS Stephen Drew, OF Carlos Quentin, and OF Chris Young more frequently in the near future. Brandon Webb isn?t far from being a legitimate Cy Young candidate but there can?t be that many innings left on El Duque?s arm and the D?Backs are relying on him as the #2 starter. They also need some more stability back in the pen but are still substantially better than the Rockies. The franchise has loads of offensive potential in the farm system with the right kind of ballpark to take advantage and it will be intriguing to see how management proceeds. Either way, this team is at least a couple years away from becoming a true threat but did have the best record (41-32) in the division last year.



(5) Colorado Rockies

In their continual quest for someone who can pitch in the Denver air, the Rockies trotted out 11 different starting pitchers last year. No team can be successful over the course of the year with such a lack of stability. We should see more of the same since the team has assembled a stable of lower-rung arms as the sacrificial lambs. Colorado hitters are notorious for failing to produce away from thinner atmosphere therefore this is not a team to back on the road (27-54) in almost any situation. Aaron Cook and Jason Jennings both get groundballs, but there overall stuff is not good enough to expect much more than the league average. On a good note, 1B Todd Helton has been raking in spring training but those back problems could flare up at any time and he has absolutely no protection in this lineup, so he may not even collect 100 RBIs despite being one of the best hitters around.

 

[RAYMOND]

AL EAST

(1) New York Yankees

This is arguably the best lineup ever assembled. The Bombers will truly live up to their nickname and could easily plate over 900 runs this season. The problem will be preventing them. Despite having no shortage of arms, New York was snake-bitten by injuries to its rotation and suffered due to terrible middle relief last season. The bullpen was addressed very well this offseason by adding two former closers (Kyle Farnsworth and Octavio Dotel) and two lefty specialists (Ron Villone and Mike Myers). Dotel is coming off Tommy John surgery and won?t be available until sometime in late May but he should eventually be part of a much-improved pen. The main worry for the Yanks is still the rotation. SP?s Carl Pavano (back), Jaret Wright (back), and Aaron Small (hamstring) have already had setbacks before Opening Day and they, especially the two former, will remain as question marks as the season progresses. Back injuries are always troublesome for pitchers, just ask Kevin Brown. Johnny Damon adds a ton of range to the center field defense, but his arm is barely better than Bernie Williams? rag. All in all, the Yankees will be better prepared, because the improved bullpen will be capable of carrying a heavier load much more successfully than last year?s crew should injuries become an issue.



(2) Boston Red Sox

They have the deepest and potentially best rotation in the division if Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett can stay healthy. Schilling has lost weight, claims his ankle has fully healed, and appears poised to have a season that will more closely resemble 2004 than 2005. Beckett is a great young arm and he has the rare, invaluable experience of having dominated the Yankees in the postseason. Matt Clement (22-11, +$475), David Wells (19-11, +$585), and Tim Wakefield (18-15, -$30) fill out the rotation and Boston has some top prospects?Jonathan Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, and Lenny DiNardo?as insurance. That gives them an immediate edge over the Yankees in terms of starting pitching. Most importantly, there will be stability now that Keith Foulke is healthy, Schilling will remain a starter, younger arms (like 2005 first-round pick Craig Hansen) are ready to contribute, and the bullpen is much deeper. But, the roster experienced a great amount of turnover with seven regulars (four batters, three pitchers) coming over from the NL. Those players will need time to adjust and that could result in a sluggish start as the team gels.



(3) Baltimore Orioles

Once Brian Roberts came back down to Earth last year, the Orioles simply tanked because they lacked the pitching to keep winning. The potential of this year?s pitching staff is high now that Leo Mazzone will be its tutor. Flamethrower Daniel Cabrera turned heads in the WBC and will become an ace if he can harness his command. Erik Bedard (8-16, -$1140) was hurt for most of last season but has looked sharp and ready to rebound in spring training. The rest of the rotation (Rodrigo Lopez, Kris Benson, Bruce Chen) is above average and should keep the O?s in a few more games than last year when the offense runs into trouble. Losing B.J. Ryan forces the team to use promising but unproven second-year man Chris Ray as closer and the combustible LaTroy Hawkins as primary setup man. The lineup has some big names but it could end up having more bark than bite and pales in comparison to those of Boston and New York. It will be another frustrating year in the middle of the pack for the Baltimore reclamation project.



(4) Toronto Blue Jays

There?s no question that the Blue Jays got better by adding pitchers A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan and hitters Troy Glaus and Lyle Overbay. However, Toronto cannot expect to compete against two of baseball?s best teams with only a top-heavy ball roster. Losing Gold Glove 2B Orlando Hudson to Arizona may have just as much effect as some of the Jays? additions. Toronto?s two best starters?Roy Halladay and Burnett?make their money by inducing large numbers of groundballs, so losing Hudson could mean that a lot more hits are going to make it through the infield and cause that pair?s collective ERA to be higher than it should be. Add to that the fact that Aaron Hill is among the worst defensive shortstops around and you don?t have a recipe for success with groundball pitchers. Ryan has proved he can be a high-level closer in the AL East, and the team is counting on another strong season from Gustavo Chacin (19-15, +$850), matching last year?s production in his second go-round the league. The Blue Jays are headed in the right direction but still won?t make a huge dent in the standings.

(5) Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Don?t be fooled. This team can hit and has lots of team speed that will make the Rays an annoyance for opposing pitchers. Unfortunately, Tampa Bay has little pitching to complement what will be a productive offense. Scott Kazmir is their only front-of-the-rotation starter and he is still a work in progress since he is only a raw 22 and walked 100 batters in 2005. Seth McClung is big (6?6, 235 lbs) and has shown he can be effective at times (8-9, +$370). He could be a dark horse if he can develop quickly. Otherwise, the pitching staff is weak and has already lost projected closer Shinji Mori for the year with a torn labrum. The Rays were 13-10 (+$895) versus southpaws at home and 7-22 (-$540) on the road so they can make some money as long as you pick the right spots. We?ll want to target them as underdogs against teams with mediocre pitching that rely on offense. That strategy was especially successful against the Yankees (11-8, +1660) and Rangers (6-2, +530) last year. Keep in mind that Tampa Bay has two of the best hitting prospects in the minors in Delmon Young and B.J. Upton, which will give them the flexibility to make trades for some arms at some point.

 

[Lee]

Ray, I forgot all about this from last year. Your info you give is of such quality. Thanks bro!

 

[RAYMOND]

AL CENTRAL

(1) Chicago White Sox

The World Series Champs owned the AL Central last year (52-22, +2405), turning a profit against every team and dominating their closest competitors (14-5, +1120 vs. Cleveland). The Chisox added depth (Javier Vazquez) to its great rotation and another power bat (Jim Thome) to its lineup in the offseason. Opposing teams will have to be at their best against Chicago, because their top five starters have great control (2.8/1 K/BB ratio last year). They also have 23-year-old Brandon McCarthy (1.69 ERA in 42.2 IP in the second half) waiting in the wings if anyone goes down. Luckily, the rotation?s strength will take pressure off the bullpen, which is the biggest question mark. Closer Bobby Jenks has come into camp overweight with erratic command and Dustin Hermanson has back problems. LF Scott Podsednick has a host of nagging injuries that have carried over from last year. His base-stealing presence was key to the ChiSox surge and the club struggled offensively when he couldn?t set the table in August. There is no one else on the roster that could replace him effectively in the leadoff spot. There was always a sense that Chicago was overachieving last season, though the anticipated drop-off never occurred. There is little reason to think that the White Sox won?t be right in the playoff mix all year long (with Cleveland) but playing with a bulls-eye on their backs will take a toll and cause a decline in total wins.



(2) Cleveland Indians

Had they not lost six of their last seven games, the Indians would have won the Wild Card and gone on to the postseason for the first time since 1999. Ticked off about the way last season ended, the Tribe will be motivated to prove its true worth and is well suited to do so with a great core of young hitters signed to long-term contracts. Cleveland was fortunate that its top five starters made all but four starts and they will need that kind of durability again. But perhaps the biggest boost to the Tribe?s improvement last year was in the bullpen, which had the lowest ERA (2.83) and WHIP (1.13) in the majors. The swap of Paul Byrd and Jason Johnson for Kevin Millwood and Scott Elarton in the rotation should not result in too much of a drop off. However, the performance of relief pitchers varies greatly from year to year when you get past the elite tier and Cleveland?s pen looks much different with David Riske, Arthur Rhodes, and Bob Howry gone and Guillermo Mota and Danny Graves coming over from the NL. The uncertainty with the bullpen is the main reason we?re hesitant to pick the Indians to out-duel the White Sox, but management has financial flexibility and could make a move to bolster the staff mid-season. This team was a superb 50-31 on the road in 2005.



(3) Minnesota Twins

Injuries and lack of offense were the source of Minnesota?s downfall last season. Only five regulars played more than 130 games and only two (Joe Mauer and Matthew LeCroy) had OPB?s higher than .350. Torii Hunter missed most of the second half after injuring his ankle on Fenway Park?s center field wall in late July and the lineup mustered little production afterwards. In recent years the Twins have had offensive black holes at SS and 2B and last year?s combination of Luis Rivas, Nick Punto, Luis Rodriguez, and Jason Bartlett were no better. Bartlett, 26, has won the starting SS job and his performance in spring training and in AAA last year (.405 OBP) indicates that he, as well as new addition 2B Luis Castillo, can be the top-of-the-order guys the Twins have lacked. Other than Johan Santana, the Minnesota starters won?t blow you away with their stuff but they are solid and exhibit excellent control, making batters work to get on base. The bullpen is this team?s strength and boasts one of the best late-inning combos around with Joe Nathan and Juan Rincon. The lack of overall power and depth in the lineup will again leave the Twins especially vulnerable to injuries and we have serious concerns about Castillo, 3B Tony Batista, and Shannon Stewart staying healthy on the Metrodome?s unforgiving carpet.



(4) Detroit Tigers

Detroit signed southpaw media darling Kenny Rogers to a two-year, $18 million contract to be the #1 starter and help mentor the two other young lefties on the staff?Nate Robertson and Mike Maroth. Rogers got off to an amazing start, but his ERA hovered around 5.00 after May, which is right about where it has been for the last two years (4.76, 4.57). Jeremy Bonderman is the true ace and future of this staff so look for him to take another step forward this year. Robertson and Maroth are young, but neither projects to be much better than average. New closer Todd Jones had a great year for the Marlins last year, compiling an ERA (2.01) that was nearly two runs below his career average (3.91). At age 38, Jones is a prime candidate to regress this year and he?s already on the DL with Fernando Rodney taking over for now. The lineup is solid, but not good enough to overcome the pitching strength of the White Sox, Indians, and Twins without more help coming from the hill. Second-year 1B Chris Shelton and rookie CF Curtis Granderson are a nice duo that will bring power and speed to the offense.



(5) Kansas City Royals

SP Zach Greinke left spring training just after camp started to deal with familial and personal issues and meet with a sports psychologist to work out various undisclosed issues. It is uncertain when Greinke will return to the team and it?s probably a safe assumption that he is far behind in his conditioning and preparation. The Royals have a new pitching coach and were looking to pare down Greinke?s repertoire in order to focus on his best pitches, so that process has been halted as well. Despite that trouble, Kansas City will have a stronger rotation with Mark Redman, Scott Elarton, and Joe Mays in the mix, but it will still easily be the worst in the division. The addition of veterans OF Reggie Sanders, 2B Mark Grudzielanek, and Doug Mientkiewicz will put some much-needed experience out on the field with the rest of the youngsters but each of those players is past his prime (Mientkiewicz is the worst offensive 1B in baseball) and unlikely to make any impact in the standings. This team has only one player?CF David DeJesus?on the roster worth getting excited about and it has already lost expected closer Mike MacDougal (shoulder) until May.

 

[RAYMOND]

AL WEST

(1) Oakland Athletics

The Athletics might have run away with the 2005 AL West Championship if it were not for injuries. Their starting middle infield of Bobby Crosby and Mark Ellis missed a combined total of 118 games and the stud of the pitching staff, Rich Harden, made only 22 starts. This year Oakland goes into the spring with the best rotation in the West, hands down, after allowing the fourth-fewest runs in the AL last year. Barry Zito will lead this young group with extra vigor since he is also playing for a contract. Rich Harden has the stuff to be the most dominating pitcher in baseball when healthy and veteran Esteban Loaiza will bring added experience to complement Joe Blanton and Danny Haren, both of whom topped 200 innings in their first respective seasons as starters. Joe Kennedy and Kirk Saarloos will be the swingmen in a strong ?pen and serve as injury insurance. The lineup will improve with experience and if Frank Thomas can play anywhere near 120 games it will be a nice power boost for a group that doesn?t have overwhelming pop. The defense is very strong all around, especially up the middle. Sophomore closer Huston Street?s progression should be fun to watch, since he put up numbers comparable to those of Mariano Rivera in his rookie campaign. No team in the division has more upside potential.



(2) Los Angeles Angels

LA has been successful in recent years on the strength of its pitching staff. They have one of baseball?s best bullpens and it finally added a quality lefty, J.C. Romero, to its ranks. Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon leads a good rotation, followed by John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Ervin Santana, and Jeff Weaver. Pitching will have to carry them and they will have to win their share of close games because the offense will be rather weak. Other than Vlad Guerrero, the Angels have no proven power threats. Cleanup hitter Garret Anderson is old and rickety and he is already bothered by a foot injury this spring. We don?t see him playing more than 120 games if he plays LF with any regularity. That means Vlad won?t see many pitches to hit this year and he doesn?t always have the discipline to keep from hacking at balls, though he is a superstar. Manager Mike Scioscia loves to play small ball and he?ll have to with this offense. The team has a nice crop of quality prospects in its system ready to make the leap and it will be interesting to see if the club gives them a chance this year.



(3) Seattle Mariners

Adrian Beltre had a down year after signing a monster contract but we expect him to rebound nicely and his performance in the World Baseball Classic for the Dominican Republic is a step in that direction. He will team with Richie Sexson to form a formidable power duo and don?t forget that they have the world?s best leadoff hitter setting the table. Our biggest wonder is what will happen with C Kenji Johjima, who was brought in from Japan. Former Japanese stars have been hit-or-miss in the majors, but he has the skills to be successful and early scouting reports have been positive. Felix Hernandez will turn 20 at the start of the season and has already shown filthy stuff and the confidence to throw any of his pitches in any count. He is the best young pitcher in the majors but the Mariners plan to, wisely, bring him along slowly as the fifth starter and keep him under 200 IP. The Mariners are very young up the middle with SS Yuniesky Betancourt, 2B Jose Lopez, and CF Jeremy Reed. They will need time to develop but should be good defensively. Another year together will help the team gel and improve on last year?s 69 wins but they will eventually fade out of contention in the AL West, due mainly to the shortcomings of the starting rotation, which has two injury-prone members (Joel Pineiro and Gil Meche).



(4) Texas Rangers

The Rangers can hit. We all know that. The big question is whether their offseason pitching acquisitions can get them over the hump and allow them to compete with the golden arms of Oakland and Anaheim. Adding SP?s Kevin Millwood and Vincente Padilla gives Texas is an improvement but Adam Eaton could miss the first three months of the season after finger surgery. The bullpen will be a major headache once again as they have little more than flotsam to supplement closer Francisco Cordero and setup man Akinori Otsuka (who will have to adjust to life in the AL and summertime Texas heat). That will translate into plenty of blown leads. Giving away Chris Young to the Padres in the deal that netted Eaton and Otsuka may be an eventual source of regret but management decided to sacrifice upside for greater depth. Things could get ugly for Eaton (once healthy) at the notoriously hitter-friendly Ameriquest Field, since he had an ERA of 5.09 when not pitching in cavernous PETCO Park last season. This team must to learn to hit away from their home bandbox as well as improve its performance versus lefties (14-25, -$1295). We envision the Rangers ending up right around .500 once again and wouldn?t be surprised if the Mariners leapfrogged them in the standings.