BEGINNING THURSDAY APRIL 20
Cincinnati at Milwaukee (4) 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd
Both these teams have been exceeding early expectations, as they jostle for the top slot in the NL Central. The Brewers in particular have been getting some decent pitching (4.08 team ERA,5th lowest in the NL) but their lefties may be vulnerable to the Reds, who are 4-1 (+$320) vs. southpaws so far. But they are 5-1 at Miller Park (+$340), and their offense has enough firepower to handle Cincinnati?s uneven rotation. We?ll stick with Ben Sheets making his 2nd start of the year, and Tomokazu Ohka (3.09 ERA) who has looked very sharp in his first three starts. BEST BET: Sheets/Ohka.
N.Y. Mets at San Diego (4) 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Mets took 4 of 6 from this team in 2005 (+$160) and they?ve gotten a lot stronger since then (3.24 team ERA, best in the majors, .298 team BA, 2nd best in the NL), while the Padres have quickly descended to the bottom of the weak NL West (5.53 ERA, .234 team BA). The Mets may be a little distracted in the first game of the series, coming off a series with the Braves at Shea and following a long flight out west. But if the prices stay in line, we?ll use them throughout this series. BEST BET: Mets at -130 or less.
BEGINNING FRIDAY APRIL 21
Atlanta at Washington (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
We?ve seen the Braves start past seasons slowly, only to take command of the NL East a couple of months down the road. But this year it?s different. With the exception of John Smoltz, the starting pitching has been dreadful (5.72 team ERA, 2nd worst in the league). They were awful on the road vs. righthanders in 2005 (only 26-35, -$1015) and they could have their hands full with a pair of Washington hurlers who have shown positive signs (Armas 3.27 ERA, Patterson 4.00 including a 2-1 win over Florida in his last outing). We?ll take either of these as long a Smoltz is not on the mound. BEST BET: Patterson & Armas unless opposed by Smoltz.
Florida at Philadelphia (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Phillies are only 1-5 at Citizen?s Bank (-$460), averaging a pitiful 3.5 runs per game in those contests. They lost money at home vs. righthanders in 2005 (-$655) so we?ll look to go against them when the situation is right. The Marlins are a shell of the team that competed effectively in the NL East until this season, but Sergio Mitre has emerged as a bright spot in the rotation (4.08 ERA in three starts). He?ll take his next turn in this series, and will no doubt catch a fat price against the underachieving Phillies. BEST BET: Mitre.
Pittsburgh at Houston (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
With the worst team ERA in the NL (6.45) and a 4-10 record to start the year, it looks like it?s going to be a long painful season for the Pirates. The hapless Bucs have posted a 1-7 (-$615) mark vs. lefthanders so far and will no doubt be squaring off against both Andy Pettitte (+$490, 2.39 ERA in ?05) and Wandy Rodriguez (+$305, 2.84 ERA in his first three starts of 2006). The Astros are averaging 5.5 runs per game, so even though prices are high it?s hard to pass up Houston given the right matchup. BEST BET: Pettitte/W. Rodriguez.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
With a 7-4 mark to start to season, the Cubs are holding up reasonably well despite the absence of their top pitchers. They dominated righthanders so far (+$415 with 7.2 runs per game) and they could provide us with some good value here at Busch Stadium, where prices on the two time division champ will be inflated. We?re not impressed with Sidney Ponson despite his having produced decent numbers in his first two starts. Look for the offensively prolific Cubs to tear him up. BEST BET: Cubs vs. Ponson.
San Francisco at Colorado (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
With a 4.64 team ERA and the second lowest team BA in the NL, it?s hard to imagine how the Giants have managed to go 7-4 over their first 11 games. Now Barry Bonds health is in doubt because of bone chips in his elbow, and Moises Alou is missing time from the lineup as well. The Rockies are pounding the ball (.306 team BA) and they?ve been getting decent work from some some of their starters as well. Jason Jennings has been very solid (+$375, 3.79 ERA) and Aaron Cook (3.67 ERA in 13 starts last year) is coming off a tremendous effort vs. the Phillies. Both are expected to see action this weekend and we will be on board. BEST BET: Jennings/Cook.
Arizona at L.A. Dodgers (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The D?backs fattened up on the Dodgers in 2005 (13-5, +$1010 in head to head play) and are getting some solid pitching to start the new year (4.01 team ERA, 4th lowest in the league). The Dodgers are facing very uncertain times with a rash of injuries to key personnel, and with the exception of Brad Penny (who?ll miss this series), none of their starters has been consistently effective. LA is always overpriced at Chavez Ravine, so we?ll jump on the visiting underdog throughout. BEST BET: Diamondbacks in all games.
Baltimore at N.Y. Yankees (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Yankees get to spend some time in the Bronx after playing 11 of their first 14 away from home. But the Orioles were a profitable rod team last year vs. righthanders, and they?ve followed up with a 3-0 (+$300) start in that situation, averaging 6.7 runs per game in those contests. Kris Benson was roughed up a bit in his last start, but his ERA is still impressive (3.32). When he takes the mound this weekend the price will be high, so take a shot against the Yankees, who are off to another lackluster start. BEST BET: Benson.
Boston at Toronto (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
After taking 11 of 18 head to head contests in 2005 ( +$905) the Blue Jays continue to baffle Boston, taking 2 out of 3 at Fenway last week (+$165). Look for these trends to continue at Skydome, where Toronto posted huge profits vs. righthanders last season (+$1170). With David Wells on the DL the Blue Jays will get plenty of chances vs. the rest of Boston?s rotation. And despite their 5-1 start on the road, we?re not about to forget about last year?s ugly showing by the Bosox as visitors (-$825). BEST BET: Blue Jays in all games.
Tampa Bay at Texas (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Rangers seem to have regressed after showing marked improvement the past two seasons. They are a miserable 3-6 (-$235) vs. righties, and could be in trouble vs. a Tampa Bay team that has posted a 5-2 (+$475) record against righthanders so far, averaging 5.3 runs per game. The Devil Rays got the best of this team last year (6-2, +$530 in head to head play) and are poised to follow up at Arlington. BEST BET: Devil Rays when righty meets righty.
Cleveland at Kansas City (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Royals are in sorry shape (7.45 team ERA, 45 runs scored in their first 11 games, lowest in the league in both departments). They
were 6-13 (-$280) vs. the Indians in 2005 and there?s little hope of a turnaround a this time. They are winless against lefthanders (-$400 with 1.8 runs per game) and they?ll have to contend with Cliff Lee, who?s coming off a tough 1-0 defeat at Comerica Park. Look for the Cleveland southpaw to notch a win. BEST BET: Lee.
Minnesota at Chicago W. Sox (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The AL Central is shaping up as a mad scramble, with four teams playing quite well so far. The White Sox have been looking better, but their statistics are not very appetizing right now (5.64 team ERA, .259 team BA) so caution is advised. But the Twins are only 1-5 in road games thus far (-$405) so we?re not very anxious to back them as visitors vs. a team that took 11 of 18 head to head matchups last year. Pass for the time being. BEST BET: None.
L.A. Angels at Oakland (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
We suspect the AL West to again come down to a battle between these two clubs once again. But the A?s tend to do much better in the second half, so we?ll look for situations where we can use the Angels in this series. They were dominant vs. righties in 2005 (+$1935) and the A?s staff is having a tough time getting on track (5.26 team ERA). Avoid Rich Harden (+$300, 3.66 ERA), who has flashed outstanding form, and focus on some of the lesser Oakland hurlers. BEST BET: Angels vs. all righthanders except Harden.
Detroit at Seattle (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Tigers may be better than people realize. Their pitching has been tops in the AL so far in 2006 (3.87 ERA) and they?ve averaged an impressive 5.3 runs per game. They went 5-1 on their first road trip of the year (+$430), and they?ll be sending Mike Maroth to the hill in the series opener. The lefthander has been outstanding in his first two starts (+$210, 0.73 ERA) and the Mariners have lost their first two outings of the year against lefties (-$200 with only 2.5 runs per game). We?ll look for another strong effort. BEST BET: Maroth.
Cincinnati at Milwaukee (4) 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd
Both these teams have been exceeding early expectations, as they jostle for the top slot in the NL Central. The Brewers in particular have been getting some decent pitching (4.08 team ERA,5th lowest in the NL) but their lefties may be vulnerable to the Reds, who are 4-1 (+$320) vs. southpaws so far. But they are 5-1 at Miller Park (+$340), and their offense has enough firepower to handle Cincinnati?s uneven rotation. We?ll stick with Ben Sheets making his 2nd start of the year, and Tomokazu Ohka (3.09 ERA) who has looked very sharp in his first three starts. BEST BET: Sheets/Ohka.
N.Y. Mets at San Diego (4) 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Mets took 4 of 6 from this team in 2005 (+$160) and they?ve gotten a lot stronger since then (3.24 team ERA, best in the majors, .298 team BA, 2nd best in the NL), while the Padres have quickly descended to the bottom of the weak NL West (5.53 ERA, .234 team BA). The Mets may be a little distracted in the first game of the series, coming off a series with the Braves at Shea and following a long flight out west. But if the prices stay in line, we?ll use them throughout this series. BEST BET: Mets at -130 or less.
BEGINNING FRIDAY APRIL 21
Atlanta at Washington (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
We?ve seen the Braves start past seasons slowly, only to take command of the NL East a couple of months down the road. But this year it?s different. With the exception of John Smoltz, the starting pitching has been dreadful (5.72 team ERA, 2nd worst in the league). They were awful on the road vs. righthanders in 2005 (only 26-35, -$1015) and they could have their hands full with a pair of Washington hurlers who have shown positive signs (Armas 3.27 ERA, Patterson 4.00 including a 2-1 win over Florida in his last outing). We?ll take either of these as long a Smoltz is not on the mound. BEST BET: Patterson & Armas unless opposed by Smoltz.
Florida at Philadelphia (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Phillies are only 1-5 at Citizen?s Bank (-$460), averaging a pitiful 3.5 runs per game in those contests. They lost money at home vs. righthanders in 2005 (-$655) so we?ll look to go against them when the situation is right. The Marlins are a shell of the team that competed effectively in the NL East until this season, but Sergio Mitre has emerged as a bright spot in the rotation (4.08 ERA in three starts). He?ll take his next turn in this series, and will no doubt catch a fat price against the underachieving Phillies. BEST BET: Mitre.
Pittsburgh at Houston (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
With the worst team ERA in the NL (6.45) and a 4-10 record to start the year, it looks like it?s going to be a long painful season for the Pirates. The hapless Bucs have posted a 1-7 (-$615) mark vs. lefthanders so far and will no doubt be squaring off against both Andy Pettitte (+$490, 2.39 ERA in ?05) and Wandy Rodriguez (+$305, 2.84 ERA in his first three starts of 2006). The Astros are averaging 5.5 runs per game, so even though prices are high it?s hard to pass up Houston given the right matchup. BEST BET: Pettitte/W. Rodriguez.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
With a 7-4 mark to start to season, the Cubs are holding up reasonably well despite the absence of their top pitchers. They dominated righthanders so far (+$415 with 7.2 runs per game) and they could provide us with some good value here at Busch Stadium, where prices on the two time division champ will be inflated. We?re not impressed with Sidney Ponson despite his having produced decent numbers in his first two starts. Look for the offensively prolific Cubs to tear him up. BEST BET: Cubs vs. Ponson.
San Francisco at Colorado (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
With a 4.64 team ERA and the second lowest team BA in the NL, it?s hard to imagine how the Giants have managed to go 7-4 over their first 11 games. Now Barry Bonds health is in doubt because of bone chips in his elbow, and Moises Alou is missing time from the lineup as well. The Rockies are pounding the ball (.306 team BA) and they?ve been getting decent work from some some of their starters as well. Jason Jennings has been very solid (+$375, 3.79 ERA) and Aaron Cook (3.67 ERA in 13 starts last year) is coming off a tremendous effort vs. the Phillies. Both are expected to see action this weekend and we will be on board. BEST BET: Jennings/Cook.
Arizona at L.A. Dodgers (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The D?backs fattened up on the Dodgers in 2005 (13-5, +$1010 in head to head play) and are getting some solid pitching to start the new year (4.01 team ERA, 4th lowest in the league). The Dodgers are facing very uncertain times with a rash of injuries to key personnel, and with the exception of Brad Penny (who?ll miss this series), none of their starters has been consistently effective. LA is always overpriced at Chavez Ravine, so we?ll jump on the visiting underdog throughout. BEST BET: Diamondbacks in all games.
Baltimore at N.Y. Yankees (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Yankees get to spend some time in the Bronx after playing 11 of their first 14 away from home. But the Orioles were a profitable rod team last year vs. righthanders, and they?ve followed up with a 3-0 (+$300) start in that situation, averaging 6.7 runs per game in those contests. Kris Benson was roughed up a bit in his last start, but his ERA is still impressive (3.32). When he takes the mound this weekend the price will be high, so take a shot against the Yankees, who are off to another lackluster start. BEST BET: Benson.
Boston at Toronto (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
After taking 11 of 18 head to head contests in 2005 ( +$905) the Blue Jays continue to baffle Boston, taking 2 out of 3 at Fenway last week (+$165). Look for these trends to continue at Skydome, where Toronto posted huge profits vs. righthanders last season (+$1170). With David Wells on the DL the Blue Jays will get plenty of chances vs. the rest of Boston?s rotation. And despite their 5-1 start on the road, we?re not about to forget about last year?s ugly showing by the Bosox as visitors (-$825). BEST BET: Blue Jays in all games.
Tampa Bay at Texas (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Rangers seem to have regressed after showing marked improvement the past two seasons. They are a miserable 3-6 (-$235) vs. righties, and could be in trouble vs. a Tampa Bay team that has posted a 5-2 (+$475) record against righthanders so far, averaging 5.3 runs per game. The Devil Rays got the best of this team last year (6-2, +$530 in head to head play) and are poised to follow up at Arlington. BEST BET: Devil Rays when righty meets righty.
Cleveland at Kansas City (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Royals are in sorry shape (7.45 team ERA, 45 runs scored in their first 11 games, lowest in the league in both departments). They
were 6-13 (-$280) vs. the Indians in 2005 and there?s little hope of a turnaround a this time. They are winless against lefthanders (-$400 with 1.8 runs per game) and they?ll have to contend with Cliff Lee, who?s coming off a tough 1-0 defeat at Comerica Park. Look for the Cleveland southpaw to notch a win. BEST BET: Lee.
Minnesota at Chicago W. Sox (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The AL Central is shaping up as a mad scramble, with four teams playing quite well so far. The White Sox have been looking better, but their statistics are not very appetizing right now (5.64 team ERA, .259 team BA) so caution is advised. But the Twins are only 1-5 in road games thus far (-$405) so we?re not very anxious to back them as visitors vs. a team that took 11 of 18 head to head matchups last year. Pass for the time being. BEST BET: None.
L.A. Angels at Oakland (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
We suspect the AL West to again come down to a battle between these two clubs once again. But the A?s tend to do much better in the second half, so we?ll look for situations where we can use the Angels in this series. They were dominant vs. righties in 2005 (+$1935) and the A?s staff is having a tough time getting on track (5.26 team ERA). Avoid Rich Harden (+$300, 3.66 ERA), who has flashed outstanding form, and focus on some of the lesser Oakland hurlers. BEST BET: Angels vs. all righthanders except Harden.
Detroit at Seattle (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Tigers may be better than people realize. Their pitching has been tops in the AL so far in 2006 (3.87 ERA) and they?ve averaged an impressive 5.3 runs per game. They went 5-1 on their first road trip of the year (+$430), and they?ll be sending Mike Maroth to the hill in the series opener. The lefthander has been outstanding in his first two starts (+$210, 0.73 ERA) and the Mariners have lost their first two outings of the year against lefties (-$200 with only 2.5 runs per game). We?ll look for another strong effort. BEST BET: Maroth.
