crack series playoffs round 1

BleedDodgerBlue

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season: great
playoffs: 0-0 still to be decided


not going to get into any long winded write-ups or such. much of what needs to be said is known, or will be written by someone else. frankly too tired, but nonetheless heres what i played. some bets look weird on surface, but remember with series pricing, you should take ample time to hedge and i plan on doing just that when the opportunities arise. will post hedges if need be when they occur if anyone cares. if not, so be it.

gl to all in the playoffs.

suns -420 2100/500. jumped the gun on this one as soon as it came out last night. stubbornly, i saw no reason for this to go down, and it has. currently sitting at -360 at some shops. not sure why pinnacle made this line so low compared to the other 2/7 pairing with the heat at -1000. the bulls have a better shot at beating the heat than the lakers do the sun. i'm scratching my head at why they are taking a stand on this, and why it went so low to begin with. someone asked me about a phil jackson stat in the playoffs or something like that, and to answer those were clearly different teams. lakers are a one man show despite the emergence of a better odom. i still can't see the lakers wining two games, but probably will have to hedge at some point because this line stinks imo. hopefully phoenix wins the first two, and then its a no brainer to make a profit.

nets -350 1400/400

bulls + 700 200/1400

nba championship:

pistons + 106 2000/2120. i just cannot see anyone beating them in the east. i can hedge in finals.

heat +1040 200/2080 in case im wrong with the pistons

nets +2359 100/2359 in case im really really wrong.

gl
 

Jabberwocky

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bleed...you are solid on the bases and I think you are one of the true "cappers" on this site...but be careful...the Suns may get exposed. Just my 2 cents...not playing this game..gl.
 

BleedDodgerBlue

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Jabberwocky said:
bleed...you are solid on the bases and I think you are one of the true "cappers" on this site...but be careful...the Suns may get exposed. Just my 2 cents...not playing this game..gl.


agree the suns may get exposed. just not by the lakers. the suns weakness is what teams like the spurs have. a strong inside game. the lakers have no one in the middle. bynum is years away, mihm is hurting and isn't good anyway. cook and walton aren't threats. kwame brown doesn't play defense and is no threat to post up on offense.

nothing would make me happier than to see the lakers win, but i don't see them exposing the suns. i will hedge because like i said, sharp money went on lakers and the line stunk, but i just don't see it.


gl 2 u
 

Eugenius7

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bleed, is it time to start hedging on Nets, or do you still think they will win the series??? i have them at 660 to win 200 and not sure what to do at this point...Pacers to win in 6 games is now at +288 it was at +350 before game 3, should i do it to minimize my losses or not?...i still think nets will win it in seven, just wanted to see if you are hedging or not...thanks...
 

BleedDodgerBlue

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nets series i'm staying pat. not worried in the least. at least yet anyway.

1400/400 nets


gonna add:
1)heat -469 938/200. makes it look like:

bulls 200/1400
heat 938/200
--- almost a 500 freeroll

2)lakers -322 3220/1000. makes it look like:


2100/500 suns
3220/1000 lakers
--- gonna take my medicine on this series. worst case scenario lose 2720. best case lose 1100. not much more i can do with it. take the loss and move on. was gonna wait til after tonight, but don't want to risk it. can't believe i was that wrong on this series. makes me proud for the lakers but unfortunately much lighter in the bankroll. might be able to lose a little less if the series continues, but i'll just move on.

best case scenario, i lose a little 1st round. worst case i lose more. still like the pistons to win it all. been utterly non impressed with any team in the west except maybe dallas, but memphis is the second worst playoff team in the west besides denver. and don't get me started on that bunch.



nba championship futures looks like this:

nba championship:

pistons + 106 2000/2120. i just cannot see anyone beating them in the east. i can hedge in finals.

heat +1040 200/2080 in case im wrong with the pistons

nets +2359 100/2359 in case im really really wrong.

gl


also gonna add pistons to win the series with milwaukee:

pistons -29000 200/ 67 cents (every little bit counts right?)


gl
 
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