Derby underdogs could surprise favorites Lawyer Ron and Brother Derek

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bodawg

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Aug 3, 2005
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This year?s Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be quite a race; and it just got a little more interesting. Showing Up, ridden by Cornelio Velasquez, came in to win at the $325,000 Grade 2 Lexington Stakes this weekend at Keeneland Park which automatically gives the three year old colt enough graded earnings to be entered in the Derby.

This horse is undefeated; however, Showing Up never raced as a two year old and has only run three races this year. Previously being scratched from the Grade 2 Swale Stakes and being withdrawn from the Grade 1 Wood Memorial for a foot bruise, the future has always been uncertain for this horse.

Everything can change in just one prep race leading up to the Kentucky Derby, and this year has been no different. Four horses have been dropped from Derby consideration, two of which who were seen as major favorites to win the Roses this year. Discreet Cat, First Samurai, High Cotton, and Strong Contender have all been dropped.

This is what makes Horse Racing so unpredictable, to think the top horse to watch earlier this year, First Samurai will now not even contend in the Derby. Bluegrass Cat another top pick, and though still in the Derby, has fallen down the odds charts after his disappointing fourth place showing in the Blue Grass Stakes. Maybe a change of name should be in the works?

Sinister Minister, who roared to victory in the Blue Grass Stakes last week, is easily the most significant of the four newcomers to the Derby contendership. His performance in fact was so impressive that many in the industry instantly shot up his futures odds to win the Derby. This horse is hot, and many are saying it. With the recent drops, Scared Light, Showing Up, and Storm Treasure have all found themselves that much closer to making the cut. The last group of Stakes races over this weekend will truly finalize the Derby picture for this year, so stay tuned, Bodawg will keep you up-to-date.

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twofingers

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Nov 16, 1999
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I had Strong Contender at 30-1 after his debut as a 3yr old in eb but it looks like a miracle needs to happen for him to make the money list to get in.

Still love the horse after the move he made in the Blue Grass but he could not overcome the speed horse in Sinister Minister ( huge track bias and horse ran the race of his life).

My thoughts three weeks out:

Brother Derek - Hard to get the juvenile out of my head where he got beat pretty badly with no excuse. Been running against short fields out west as a 3 yr old. Have doubts about the ability to rate this horse as he went balls out in stretch in SA derby. If Sinister Minister goes to the front, will he chase him the first 1/2 and have nothing left in stretch?

Lawyer Ron - Little speed in his preps so far. Been heads above the competiton so far in the south. Been able to get the lead and run easy. I dont see that happening with Sinister Minister pushing the pace. Been able to hold off steppen wolf and red raymond with little speed pushing him. Thinking that faster pace here has him breathing harder in the longer stretch run.

Steppenwolfer - He will be one all my tickets. Will benefit from the faster pace and longer distance. Have to hope for a good trip, and if so, he will be flying down the stretch.

Barbaro - Has done nothing wrong so far. Has not raced since Fla derby on 4-1-06. Honest horse, showed he can rate off the pace, good jockey. I give him a good chance, especially if pace is fast and he can not get caught in the speed duel. Prado chased Sinister Minister in the Blue Grass on strong Contender so he be fearful about letting SM get to far ahead. This is not Keeneland so patience may pay off for this horse.

Bob and John - Unless it is a OFF TRACK, I am leaving him out. Took him forever to get down the stretch at the Wood.

Sinister minister - Won the Blue Grass by 12 1/2 lengths. keeneland favors front runners but that was freakish. Had some good horses ( I thought) chasing him but all they saw was ass and elbows. he will get to the first turn in front but have to think that they are not going to let him loose on the lead. Maybe he will pull a war emblem or Winning Colors here but off that last race I think he comes down to earth here and gets passed in the stretch. If he is double digits, I will have a head of cabbage on him just in case but this is Churchhill, not Keeneland.

Private Vow - Lost ground in stretch going 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 in last three chasing Laywer Ron. Has not taken that step up as a three yr old. Got chrushed in Juvenile. Not much to like.

AP Warrior - Another one that could run late, especially if pace is fast. The race would have to set up perfectly but the odds will be there. Third spot in gimmicks is most likely.

SweetNorthernSaint - Great speed. rated well in Illinois derby, showed heart in stretch. Step up in competion here but this is one that I think will make some noise in the stretch. I will have him in my gimmicks. If he continues to show steady improvement, he could get the roses.

Bluegrass Rat - Badly beaten favorite in Bluegrass. Was hoping they would not run him but looks like they will. Can not find one thing to like about him.

Keyed entry - Did not impress me in Florida, did not impress me in NY. Pletcher had 30 horses nominated for derby and I would bet none hit the board. Out of Crytoclearance stock and I made some money on that horse in his day. That the nicest thing I can say.

Showing up - Have to see if he shows up? Possibly a little lame after the Lexington? Horse has speed and talent. Big step up here. Longshot worth a look see.

Point determined - Another one who will benefit from quick pace. I expect him to be coming down the stretch with guns blaring. Last two with Beyers over 100 shows me he is on top of his game and with some racing luck he can beat any of these. Could be a nice price.

Cause to believe - 12 races under his belt but not alot to hoot and holler about. Think the distance is a little to long for him. Sinister Minster had to bite the rail twice in the stretch before he passed him in the California Derby. To many many better horses in here to give serious consideration.

Like Now - Another speed horse in a speed race. Like this one less then others so I am going to leave him out of everything.

Deputy Glitters - Had his moment in the sun beating Bluecat Rat in the Tampa. Don't like

Storm Treasure - 65-1 hit the board in the Bluegrass. Expect a faster pace here so not out of the question that he puts a late run together. If you want a real big one to put in your tri or super, you could do worse then this one.

Seaside Resort - Better chance he will be running at Finger lakes next year then winning the Derby this year.

More later
 
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